The study of opinions, their formation and change, is one of the defining topics addressed by social psychology, but in recent years other disciplines, like computer science and complexity, have tried to deal with this issue. Despite the flourishing of different models and theories in both fields, several key questions still remain unanswered. The understanding of how opinions change and the way they are affected by social influence are challenging issues requiring a thorough analysis of opinion per se but also of the way in which they travel between agents' minds and are modulated by these exchanges. To account for the two-faceted nature of opinions, which are mental entities undergoing complex social processes, we outline a preliminary model in which a cognitive theory of opinions is put forward and it is paired with a formal description of them and of their spreading among minds. Furthermore, investigating social influence also implies the necessity to account for the way in which people change their minds, as a consequence of interacting with other people, and the need to explain the higher or lower persistence of such changes.

Refinement is a powerful mechanism for mastering the complexities that arise when formally modelling systems. Refinement also brings with it additional proof obligations -- requiring a developer to discover properties relating to their design decisions. With the goal of reducing this burden, we have investigated how a general purpose theory formation tool, HR, can be used to automate the discovery of such properties within the context of Event-B. Here we develop a heuristic approach to the automatic discovery of invariants and report upon a series of experiments that we undertook in order to evaluate our approach. The set of heuristics developed provides systematic guidance in tailoring HR for a given Event-B development. These heuristics are based upon proof-failure analysis, and have given rise to some promising results.

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise, Sigma = (sigma^2)*I. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situation where the data variance is already partially explained by other factors, e.g. covariates of interest, or temporal correlations leaving some residual variance. We decompose the residual variance into its components through a generalized eigenvalue problem, which we call residual component analysis (RCA). We show that canonical covariates analysis (CCA) is a special case of our algorithm and explore a range of new algorithms that arise from the framework. We illustrate the ideas on a gene expression time series data set and the recovery of human pose from silhouette.

One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the dynamic factor models. A challenging issue is to determine which variables and (their) lags are relevant, especially when there is a mixture of serial correlation (temporal dynamics), high dimensional (spatial) dependence structure and moderate sample size (relative to dimensionality and lags). To this end, an \textit{integrated} solution that addresses these three challenges simultaneously is appealing. We study the large vector auto regressions here with three types of estimates. We treat each variable's own lags different from other variables' lags, distinguish various lags over time, and is able to select the variables and lags simultaneously. We first show the consequences of using Lasso type estimate directly for time series without considering the temporal dependence. In contrast, our proposed method can still produce an estimate as efficient as an \textit{oracle} under such scenarios. The tuning parameters are chosen via a data driven "rolling scheme" method to optimize the forecasting performance. A macroeconomic and financial forecasting problem is considered to illustrate its superiority over existing estimators.

Extraction of a physical parameter from data is an area where application of symbolic regression can be useful, especially if the relationship between the parameter of interest and measured variables are contrived and nonlinear [2]. In the problem of mass measurement of a particle in high-energy physics, the relationship is determined exactly if all the decayed particles are detected and measured by the detector. The problem becomes nontrivial if some of the particles escape detection. In W boson mass measurement with W lν at hadron colliders, the neutrino (ν) escapes detection, but its transverse components of the momentum are measured indirectly.

Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence, based on non-trivial computations. The model presented here suggests that coincidences occur when subjects perceive complexity drops. Co-occurring events are, together, simpler than if considered separately. This model leads to a possible redefinition of subjective probability.

Nowadays ontologies present a growing interest in Data Fusion applications. As a matter of fact, the ontologies are seen as a semantic tool for describing and reasoning about sensor data, objects, relations and general domain theories. In addition, uncertainty is perhaps one of the most important characteristics of the data and information handled by Data Fusion. However, the fundamental nature of ontologies implies that ontologies describe only asserted and veracious facts of the world. Different probabilistic, fuzzy and evidential approaches already exist to fill this gap; this paper recaps the most popular tools. However none of the tools meets exactly our purposes. Therefore, we constructed a Dempster-Shafer ontology that can be imported into any specific domain ontology and that enables us to instantiate it in an uncertain manner. We also developed a Java application that enables reasoning about these uncertain ontological instances.

Using the Hilbert-Bernays account as a spring-board, we first define four ways in which two objects can be discerned from one another, using the non-logical vocabulary of the language concerned. (These definitions are based on definitions made by Quine and Saunders.) Because of our use of the Hilbert-Bernays account, these definitions are in terms of the syntax of the language. But we also relate our definitions to the idea of permutations on the domain of quantification, and their being symmetries. These relations turn out to be subtle---some natural conjectures about them are false. We will see in particular that the idea of symmetry meshes with a species of indiscernibility that we will call `absolute indiscernibility'. We then report all the logical implications between our four kinds of discernibility. We use these four kinds as a resource for stating four metaphysical theses about identity. Three of these theses articulate two traditional philosophical themes: viz. the principle of the identity of indiscernibles (which will come in two versions), and haecceitism. The fourth is recent. Its most notable feature is that it makes diversity (i.e. non-identity) weaker than what we will call individuality (being an individual): two objects can be distinct but not individuals. For this reason, it has been advocated both for quantum particles and for spacetime points. Finally, we locate this fourth metaphysical thesis in a broader position, which we call structuralism. We conclude with a discussion of the semantics suitable for a structuralist, with particular reference to physical theories as well as elementary model theory.

The amount of information available on the Web grows at an incredible high rate. Systems and procedures devised to extract these data from Web sources already exist, and different approaches and techniques have been investigated during the last years. On the one hand, reliable solutions should provide robust algorithms of Web data mining which could automatically face possible malfunctioning or failures. On the other, in literature there is a lack of solutions about the maintenance of these systems. Procedures that extract Web data may be strictly interconnected with the structure of the data source itself; thus, malfunctioning or acquisition of corrupted data could be caused, for example, by structural modifications of data sources brought by their owners. Nowadays, verification of data integrity and maintenance are mostly manually managed, in order to ensure that these systems work correctly and reliably. In this paper we propose a novel approach to create procedures able to extract data from Web sources -- the so called Web wrappers -- which can face possible malfunctioning caused by modifications of the structure of the data source, and can automatically repair themselves.

The relation between self awareness and intelligence is an open problem these days. Despite the fact that self awarness is usually related to Emotional Intelligence, this is not the case here. The problem described in this paper is how to model an agent which knows (Cognitive) Binary Logic and which is also able to pass (without any mistake) a certain family of Turing Tests designed to verify its knowledge and its discourse about the modal states of truth corresponding to well-formed formulae within the language of Propositional Binary Logic.