Plan recognition is a form of abductive reasoning that involves inferring plans that best explain sets of observed actions. Most existing approaches to plan recognition and other abductive tasks employ either purely logical methods that donot handle uncertainty, or purely probabilistic methods thatdo not handle structured representations. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces an approach to abductive reasoning using a first-order probabilistic logic, specifically Markov Logic Networks (MLNs). It introduces several novel techniques for making MLNs efficient and effective for abduction. Experiments on three plan recognition datasets showthe benefit of our approach over existing methods.

When to make a decision is a key question in decision making problems characterized by uncertainty. In this paper we deal with decision making in environments where the information arrives dynamically. We address the tradeoff between waiting and stopping strategies. On the one hand, waiting to obtain more information reduces the uncertainty, but it comes with a cost. On the other hand, stopping and making a decision based on an expected utility, decreases the cost of waiting, but the decision is made based on uncertain information. In this paper, we prove that computing the optimal time to make a decision that guarantees the optimal utility is NP-hard. We propose a pessimistic approximation that guarantees an optimal decision when the recommendation is to wait. We empirically evaluate our algorithm and show that the quality of the decision is near-optimal and much faster than the optimal algorithm.

We describe a memory-efficient implementation of a dynamic programming algorithm for learning the optimal structure of a Bayesian network from training data. The algorithm leverages the layered structure of the dynamic programming graphs representing the recursive decomposition of the problem to reduce the memory requirements of the algorithm from O(n2 n ) to O(C(n, n/2)), where C(n, n/2) is the binomial coefficient. Experimental results show that the approach runs up to an order of magnitude faster and scales to datasets with more variables than previous approaches.

Coarse-to-fine approaches use sequences of increasingly fine approximations to control the complexity of inference and learning. These techniques are often used in NLP and vision applications. However, no coarse-to-fine inference or learning methods have been developed for general first-order probabilistic domains, where the potential gains are even higher. We present our Coarse-to-Fine Probabilistic Inference (CFPI) framework for general coarse-to-fine inference for first-order probabilistic models, which leverages a given or induced type hierarchy over objects in the domain. Starting by considering the inference problem at the coarsest type level, our approach performs inference at successively finer grains, pruning high- and low-probability atoms before refining. CFPI can be applied with any probabilistic inference method and can be used in both propositional and relational domains. CFPI provides theoretical guarantees on the errors incurred, and these guarantees can be tightened when CFPI is applied to specific inference algorithms. We also show how to learn parameters in a coarse-to-fine manner to maximize the efficiency of CFPI. We evaluate CFPI with the lifted belief propagation algorithm on social network link prediction and biomolecular event prediction tasks. These experiments show CFPI can greatly speed up inference without sacrificing accuracy.

Many algorithms for performing inference in graphical models have complexity that is exponential in the treewidth — a parameter of the underlying graph structure. Computing the (minimal) treewidth is NPcomplete, so stochastic algorithms are sometimes used to find low width tree decompositions. A common approach for finding good decompositions is iteratively executing a greedy triangulation algorithm (e.g. minfill) with randomized tie-breaking. However, utilizing a stochastic algorithm as part of the inference task introduces a new problem — namely, deciding how long the stochastic algorithm should be allowed to execute before performing inference on the best tree decomposition found so far. We refer to this dilemma as the Stopping Problem and formalize it in terms of the total time needed to answer a probabilistic query. We propose a rule for discontinuing the search for improved decompositions and demonstrate the benefit (in terms of time saved) of applying this rule to Bayes and Markov network instances.

We present a dual decomposition approach to the tree-reweighted belief propagation objective. Each tree in the tree-reweighted bound yields one subproblem, which can be solved with the sum-product algorithm. The master problem is a simple differentiable optimization, to which a standard optimization method can be applied. Experimental results on 10x10 Ising models show the dual decomposition approach using L-BFGS is similar in settings where message-passing converges quickly, and one to two orders of magnitude faster in settings where message-passing requires many iterations, specifically high accuracy convergence, and strong interactions.

This paper compares in depth the effectiveness of two conjunctive belief state representations in contingent planning: prime implicates and minimal CNF, a compact form of CNF formulae, which were initially proposed in conformant planning research (To et al. 2010a; 2010b). Similar to the development of the contingent planner CNFct for minimal CNF (To et al. 2011b), the present paper extends the progression function for the prime implicate representation in (To et al. 2010b) for computing successor belief states in the presence of incomplete information to handle non-deterministic and sensing actions required in contingent planning. The idea was instantiated in a new contingent planner, called PIct, using the same AND/OR search algorithm and heuristic function as those for CNFct. The experiments show that, like CNFct, PIct performs very well in a wide range of benchmarks. The study investigates the advantages and disadvantages of the two planners and identifies the properties of each representation method that affect the performance.

Recent domain-determinization techniques have been very successful in many probabilistic planning problems. We claim that traditional heuristic MDP algorithms have been unsuccessful due mostly to the lack of efficient heuristics in structured domains. Previous attempts like mGPT used classical planning heuristics to an all-outcome determinization of MDPs without discount factor; yet, discounted optimization is required to solve problems with potential dead-ends. We propose a general extension of classical planning heuristics to goal-oriented discounted MDPs, in order to overcome this flaw. We apply our theoretical analysis to the well-known classical planning heuristics Hmax and Hadd, and prove that the extended Hmax is admissible. We plugged our extended heuristics to popular graph-based (Improved-LAO*, LRTDP, LDFS) and ADD-based (sLAO*, sRTDP) MDP algorithms: experimental evaluations highlight competitive results compared with the winners of previous competitions (FF-Replan, FPG, RFF), and show that our discounted heuristics solve more problems than non-discounted ones, with better criteria values. As for classical planning, the extended Hadd outperforms the extended Hmax on most problems.

Previous research in Artificial Intelligence has identified the possibility of simplifying planning problems via the identification and exploitation of symmetries. We advance the state of the art in algorithms that exploit symmetry in planning problems by generalizing previous approaches, and applying symmetry reductions to state-based planners. We suggest several algorithms for symmetry exploitation in state-based search, but also provide a comprehensive view through which additional algorithms can be developed and fine-tuned. We evaluate our approach to symmetry exploitation on instances from previous planning competitions, and demonstrate that our algorithms significantly improve the solution time of instances with symmetries.

Symbolic search with BDDs has shown remarkable performance for cost-optimal deterministic planning by exploiting a succinct representation and exploration of state sets. In this paper we enhance BDD-based planning by applying a combination of domain-independent search techniques: the optimization of the variable ordering in the BDD by approximating the linear arrangement problem, pattern selection for improved construction of search heuristics in form of symbolic partial pattern databases, and a decision procedure for the amount of bidirection in the symbolic search process.