Learning theory has largely focused on two main learning scenarios: the classical statistical setting where instances are drawn i.i.d. from a fixed distribution, and the adversarial scenario whereby at every time step the worst instance is revealed to the player. It can be argued that in the real world neither of these assumptions is reasonable. We define the minimax value of a game where the adversary is restricted in his moves, capturing stochastic and non-stochastic assumptions on data. Building on the sequential symmetrization approach, we define a notion of distribution-dependent Rademacher complexity for the spectrum of problems ranging from i.i.d. to worst-case. The bounds let us immediately deduce variation-type bounds. We study a smoothed online learning scenario and show that exponentially small amount of noise can make function classes with infinite Littlestone dimension learnable.

We derive algorithms for generalised tensor factorisation (GTF) by building upon the well-established theory of Generalised Linear Models. Our algorithms are general in the sense that we can compute arbitrary factorisations in a message passing framework, derived for a broad class of exponential family distributions including special cases such as Tweedie's distributions corresponding to $\beta$-divergences. By bounding the step size of the Fisher Scoring iteration of the GLM, we obtain general updates for real data and multiplicative updates for non-negative data. The GTF framework is, then extended easily to address the problems when multiple observed tensors are factorised simultaneously. We illustrate our coupled factorisation approach on synthetic data as well as on a musical audio restoration problem.

We study the problem of reconstructing an unknown matrix M of rank r and dimension d using O(rd polylog d) Pauli measurements. This has applications in quantum state tomography, and is a non-commutative analogue of a well-known problem in compressed sensing: recovering a sparse vector from a few of its Fourier coefficients. We show that almost all sets of O(rd log^6 d) Pauli measurements satisfy the rank-r restricted isometry property (RIP). This implies that M can be recovered from a fixed ("universal") set of Pauli measurements, using nuclear-norm minimization (e.g., the matrix Lasso), with nearly-optimal bounds on the error. A similar result holds for any class of measurements that use an orthonormal operator basis whose elements have small operator norm. Our proof uses Dudley's inequality for Gaussian processes, together with bounds on covering numbers obtained via entropy duality.

Rational models of causal induction have been successful in accounting for people's judgments about the existence of causal relationships. However, these models have focused on explaining inferences from discrete data of the kind that can be summarized in a 2 ✕ 2 contingency table. This severely limits the scope of these models, since the world often provides non-binary data. We develop a new rational model of causal induction using continuous dimensions, which aims to diminish the gap between empirical and theoretical approaches and real-world causal induction. This model successfully predicts human judgments from previous studies better than models of discrete causal inference, and outperforms several other plausible models of causal induction with continuous causes in accounting for people's inferences in a new experiment.

Vector Auto-regressive models (VAR) are useful tools for analyzing time series data. In quite a few modern time series modelling tasks, the collection of reliable time series turns out to be a major challenge, either due to the slow progression of the dynamic process of interest, or inaccessibility of repetitive measurements of the same dynamic process over time. In those situations, however, we observe that it is often easier to collect a large amount of non-sequence samples, or snapshots of the dynamic process of interest. In this work, we assume a small amount of time series data are available, and propose methods to incorporate non-sequence data into penalized least-square estimation of VAR models. We consider non-sequence data as samples drawn from the stationary distribution of the underlying VAR model, and devise a novel penalization scheme based on the discrete-time Lyapunov equation concerning the covariance of the stationary distribution. Experiments on synthetic and video data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

This manuscript considers the convergence rate of boosting under a large class of losses, including the exponential and logistic losses, where the best previous rate of convergence was O(exp(1/ε²)). First, it is established that the setting of weak learnability aids the entire class, granting a rate O(ln(1/ε)). Next, the (disjoint) conditions under which the infimal empirical risk is attainable are characterized in terms of the sample and weak learning class, and a new proof is given for the known rate O(ln(1/ε)). Finally, it is established that any instance can be decomposed into two smaller instances resembling the two preceding special cases, yielding a rate O(1/ε), with a matching lower bound for the logistic loss. The principal technical hurdle throughout this work is the potential unattainability of the infimal empirical risk; the technique for overcoming this barrier may be of general interest.

Categorizing digital images using keywords, however, is the quintessential example of a Challenging classification problem.

We show that the lambda-return target used in the TD(lambda) family of algorithms is the maximum likelihood estimator for a specific model of how the variance of an n-step return estimate increases with n. We introduce the gamma-return estimator, an alternative target based on a more accurate model of variance, which defines the TD_gamma family of complex-backup temporal difference learning algorithms. We derive TD_gamma, the gamma-return equivalent of the original TD(lambda) algorithm, which eliminates the lambda parameter but can only perform updates at the end of an episode and requires time and space proportional to the episode length. We then derive a second algorithm, TD_gamma(C), with a capacity parameter C. TD_gamma(C) requires C times more time and memory than TD(lambda) and is incremental and online. We show that TD_gamma outperforms TD(lambda) for any setting of lambda on 4 out of 5 benchmark domains, and that TD_gamma(C) performs as well as or better than TD_gamma for intermediate settings of C.

We propose a robust filtering approach based on semi-supervised and multiple instance learning (MIL). We assume that the posterior density would be unimodal if not for the effect of outliers that we do not wish to explicitly model. Therefore, we seek for a point estimate at the outset, rather than a generic approximation of the entire posterior. Our approach can be thought of as a combination of standard finite-dimensional filtering (Extended Kalman Filter, or Unscented Filter) with multiple instance learning, whereby the initial condition comes with a putative set of inlier measurements. We show how both the state (regression) and the inlier set (classification) can be estimated iteratively and causally by processing only the current measurement. We illustrate our approach on visual tracking problems whereby the object of interest (target) moves and evolves as a result of occlusions and deformations, and partial knowledge of the target is given in the form of a bounding box (training set).

We introduce a new convergent variant of Q-learning, called speedy Q-learning, to address the problem of slow convergence in the standard form of the Q-learning algorithm. We prove a PAC bound on the performance of SQL, which shows that for an MDP with n state-action pairs and the discount factor \gamma only T=O\big(\log(n)/(\epsilon^{2}(1-\gamma)^{4})\big) steps are required for the SQL algorithm to converge to an \epsilon-optimal action-value function with high probability. This bound has a better dependency on 1/\epsilon and 1/(1-\gamma), and thus, is tighter than the best available result for Q-learning. Our bound is also superior to the existing results for both model-free and model-based instances of batch Q-value iteration that are considered to be more efficient than the incremental methods like Q-learning.