Discovering causal relations among observed variables in a given data set is a main topic in studies of statistics and artificial intelligence. Recently, some techniques to discover an identifiable causal structure have been explored based on non-Gaussianity of the observed data distribution. However, most of these are limited to continuous data. In this paper, we present a novel causal model for binary data and propose a new approach to derive an identifiable causal structure governing the data based on skew Bernoulli distributions of external noise. Experimental evaluation shows excellent performance for both artificial and real world data sets.

We address the problem of learning the parameters in graphical models when inference is intractable. A common strategy in this case is to replace the partition function with its Bethe approximation. We show that there exists a regime of empirical marginals where such Bethe learning will fail. By failure we mean that the empirical marginals cannot be recovered from the approximated maximum likelihood parameters (i.e., moment matching is not achieved). We provide several conditions on empirical marginals that yield outer and inner bounds on the set of Bethe learnable marginals. An interesting implication of our results is that there exists a large class of marginals that cannot be obtained as stable fixed points of belief propagation. Taken together our results provide a novel approach to analyzing learning with Bethe approximations and highlight when it can be expected to work or fail.

Kernel methods are successful approaches for different machine learning problems. This success is mainly rooted in using feature maps and kernel matrices. Some methods rely on the eigenvalues/eigenvectors of the kernel matrix, while for other methods the spectral information can be used to estimate the excess risk. An important question remains on how close the sample eigenvalues/eigenvectors are to the population values. In this paper, we improve earlier results on concentration bounds for eigenvalues of general kernel matrices. For distance and inner product kernel functions, e.g. radial basis functions, we provide new concentration bounds, which are characterized by the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix. Meanwhile, the obstacles for sharper bounds are accounted for and partially addressed. As a case study, we derive a concentration inequality for sample kernel target-alignment.

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler. Our approach is based on the idea of uniformization, and sets up a Markov chain over paths by sampling a finite set of virtual jump times and then running a standard hidden Markov model forward filtering-backward sampling algorithm over states at the set of extant and virtual jump times. We demonstrate significant computational benefits over a state-of-the-art Gibbs sampler on a number of continuous time Bayesian networks.

A Support Vector Method for multivariate performance measures was recently introduced by Joachims (2005). The underlying optimization problem is currently solved using cutting plane methods such as SVM-Perf and BMRM. One can show that these algorithms converge to an eta accurate solution in O(1/Lambda*e) iterations, where lambda is the trade-off parameter between the regularizer and the loss function. We present a smoothing strategy for multivariate performance scores, in particular precision/recall break-even point and ROCArea. When combined with Nesterov's accelerated gradient algorithm our smoothing strategy yields an optimization algorithm which converges to an eta accurate solution in O(min{1/e,1/sqrt(lambda*e)}) iterations. Furthermore, the cost per iteration of our scheme is the same as that of SVM-Perf and BMRM. Empirical evaluation on a number of publicly available datasets shows that our method converges significantly faster than cutting plane methods without sacrificing generalization ability.

Standard maximum likelihood estimation cannot be applied to discrete energy-based models in the general case because the computation of exact model probabilities is intractable. Recent research has seen the proposal of several new estimators designed specifically to overcome this intractability, but virtually nothing is known about their theoretical properties. In this paper, we present a generalized estimator that unifies many of the classical and recently proposed estimators. We use results from the standard asymptotic theory for M-estimators to derive a generic expression for the asymptotic covariance matrix of our generalized estimator. We apply these results to study the relative statistical efficiency of classical pseudolikelihood and the recently-proposed ratio matching estimator.

We propose a method that infers whether linear relations between two high-dimensional variables X and Y are due to a causal influence from X to Y or from Y to X. The earlier proposed so-called Trace Method is extended to the regime where the dimension of the observed variables exceeds the sample size. Based on previous work, we postulate conditions that characterize a causal relation between X and Y. Moreover, we describe a statistical test and argue that both causal directions are typically rejected if there is a common cause. A full theoretical analysis is presented for the deterministic case but our approach seems to be valid for the noisy case, too, for which we additionally present an approach based on a sparsity constraint. The discussed method yields promising results for both simulated and real world data.

The personalization of treatment via bio-markers and other risk categories has drawn increasing interest among clinical scientists. Personalized treatment strategies can be learned using data from clinical trials, but such trials are very costly to run. This paper explores the use of active learning techniques to design more efficient trials, addressing issues such as whom to recruit, at what point in the trial, and which treatment to assign, throughout the duration of the trial. We propose a minimax bandit model with two different optimization criteria, and discuss the computational challenges and issues pertaining to this approach. We evaluate our active learning policies using both simulated data, and data modeled after a clinical trial for treating depressed individuals, and contrast our methods with other plausible active learning policies.

A database of objects discovered in houses in the Roman city of Pompeii provides a unique view of ordinary life in an ancient city. Experts have used this collection to study the structure of Roman households, exploring the distribution and variability of tasks in architectural spaces, but such approaches are necessarily affected by modern cultural assumptions. In this study we present a data-driven approach to household archeology, treating it as an unsupervised labeling problem. This approach scales to large data sets and provides a more objective complement to human interpretation.

We study the problem of learning high dimensional regression models regularized by a structured-sparsity-inducing penalty that encodes prior structural information on either input or output sides. We consider two widely adopted types of such penalties as our motivating examples: 1) overlapping group lasso penalty, based on the l1/l2 mixed-norm penalty, and 2) graph-guided fusion penalty. For both types of penalties, due to their non-separability, developing an efficient optimization method has remained a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a general optimization approach, called smoothing proximal gradient method, which can solve the structured sparse regression problems with a smooth convex loss and a wide spectrum of structured-sparsity-inducing penalties. Our approach is based on a general smoothing technique of Nesterov. It achieves a convergence rate faster than the standard first-order method, subgradient method, and is much more scalable than the most widely used interior-point method. Numerical results are reported to demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed method.