In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional hyperparameters which need to be tuned in order to achieve optimum predictive performance; this operation can be efficiently performed in an Empirical Bayes fashion by maximizing the posterior marginal likelihood of the observed data. Since the score function of this optimization problem is in general characterized by the presence of local optima, it is necessary to resort to global optimization strategies, which require a large number of function evaluations. Given that the evaluation is usually computationally intensive and badly scaled with respect to the dataset size, the maximum number of observations that can be treated simultaneously is quite limited. In this paper, we consider the case of hyperparameter tuning in Gaussian process regression. A straightforward implementation of the posterior log-likelihood for this model requires O(N^3) operations for every iteration of the optimization procedure, where N is the number of examples in the input dataset. We derive a novel set of identities that allow, after an initial overhead of O(N^3), the evaluation of the score function, as well as the Jacobian and Hessian matrices, in O(N) operations. We prove how the proposed identities, that follow from the eigendecomposition of the kernel matrix, yield a reduction of several orders of magnitude in the computation time for the hyperparameter optimization problem. Notably, the proposed solution provides computational advantages even with respect to state of the art approximations that rely on sparse kernel matrices.

Most methods for decision-theoretic online learning are based on the Hedge algorithm, which takes a parameter called the learning rate. In most previous analyses the learning rate was carefully tuned to obtain optimal worst-case performance, leading to suboptimal performance on easy instances, for example when there exists an action that is significantly better than all others. We propose a new way of setting the learning rate, which adapts to the difficulty of the learning problem: in the worst case our procedure still guarantees optimal performance, but on easy instances it achieves much smaller regret. In particular, our adaptive method achieves constant regret in a probabilistic setting, when there exists an action that on average obtains strictly smaller loss than all other actions. We also provide a simulation study comparing our approach to existing methods.

Many applications, e.g., Web service composition, complex system design, team formation, etc., rely on methods for identifying collections of objects or entities satisfying some functional requirement. Among the collections that satisfy the functional requirement, it is often necessary to identify one or more collections that are optimal with respect to user preferences over a set of attributes that describe the non-functional properties of the collection. We develop a formalism that lets users express the relative importance among attributes and qualitative preferences over the valuations of each attribute. We define a dominance relation that allows us to compare collections of objects in terms of preferences over attributes of the objects that make up the collection. We establish some key properties of the dominance relation. In particular, we show that the dominance relation is a strict partial order when the intra-attribute preference relations are strict partial orders and the relative importance preference relation is an interval order. We provide algorithms that use this dominance relation to identify the set of most preferred collections. We show that under certain conditions, the algorithms are guaranteed to return only (sound), all (complete), or at least one (weakly complete) of the most preferred collections. We present results of simulation experiments comparing the proposed algorithms with respect to (a) the quality of solutions (number of most preferred solutions) produced by the algorithms, and (b) their performance and efficiency. We also explore some interesting conjectures suggested by the results of our experiments that relate the properties of the user preferences, the dominance relation, and the algorithms.

Value iteration is a powerful yet inefficient algorithm for Markov decision processes (MDPs) because it puts the majority of its effort into backing up the entire state space, which turns out to be unnecessary in many cases. In order to overcome this problem, many approaches have been proposed. Among them, ILAO* and variants of RTDP are state-of-the-art ones. These methods use reachability analysis and heuristic search to avoid some unnecessary backups. However, none of these approaches build the graphical structure of the state transitions in a pre-processing step or use the structural information to systematically decompose a problem, whereby generating an intelligent backup sequence of the state space. In this paper, we present two optimal MDP algorithms. The first algorithm, topological value iteration (TVI), detects the structure of MDPs and backs up states based on topological sequences. It (1) divides an MDP into strongly-connected components (SCCs), and (2) solves these components sequentially. TVI outperforms VI and other state-of-the-art algorithms vastly when an MDP has multiple, close-to-equal-sized SCCs. The second algorithm, focused topological value iteration (FTVI), is an extension of TVI. FTVI restricts its attention to connected components that are relevant for solving the MDP. Specifically, it uses a small amount of heuristic search to eliminate provably sub-optimal actions; this pruning allows FTVI to find smaller connected components, thus running faster. We demonstrate that FTVI outperforms TVI by an order of magnitude, averaged across several domains. Surprisingly, FTVI also significantly outperforms popular `heuristically-informed' MDP algorithms such as ILAO*, LRTDP, BRTDP and Bayesian-RTDP in many domains, sometimes by as much as two orders of magnitude. Finally, we characterize the type of domains where FTVI excels --- suggesting a way to an informed choice of solver.

Most classification methods provide either a prediction of class membership or an assessment of class membership probability. In the case of two-group classification the predicted probability can be described as "risk" of belonging to a "special" class . When the required output is a set of ordinal-risk groups, a discretization of the continuous risk prediction is achieved by two common methods: by constructing a set of models that describe the conditional risk function at specific points (quantile regression) or by dividing the output of an "optimal" classification model into adjacent intervals that correspond to the desired risk groups. By defining a new error measure for the distribution of risk onto intervals we are able to identify lower bounds on the accuracy of these methods, showing sub-optimality both in their distribution of risk and in the efficiency of their resulting partition into intervals. By adding a new form of constraint to the existing maximum likelihood optimization framework and by introducing a penalty function to avoid degenerate solutions, we show how existing methods can be augmented to solve the ordinal risk-group classification problem. We implement our method for logistic regression (LR) and show a numeric example.

Cooperative game theory is a branch of (micro-)economics that studies the behavior of self-interested agents in strategic settings where binding agreements among agents are possible. Our aim in this book is to present a survey of work on the computational aspects of cooperative game theory. We begin by formally defining transferable utility games in characteristic function form, and introducing key solution concepts such as the core and the Shapley value. We then discuss two major issues that arise when considering such games from a computational perspective: identifying compact representations for games, and the closely related problem of efficiently computing solution concepts for games. We survey several formalisms for cooperative games that have been proposed in the literature, including, for example, cooperative games defined on networks, as well as general compact representation schemes such as MC-nets and skill games.

The notion of distance, or more generally, similarity between observations, is at the root of most learning algorithms such as manifold learning, unsupervised clustering, semi-supervised learning, and anomaly detection. Most methods, at a basic level, are based on some function of Euclidean distance, such as the radial basis functions prevalent in supervised classification. Graphbased learning methods employ Euclidean distances to describe local neighborhoods for observations. K-nearest neighbors and ǫ-neighborhoods based on Euclidean distances are used in manifold learning (Isomap [1] and LLE [2]), spectral clustering [3], anomaly detection algorithms [4], [5] and in label propagation algorithms for semi-supervised learning [6]. In many cases, notably sparsely sampled sets of data, Euclidean neighborhoods are not sufficient to represent underlying structure. Consider data drawn from two independent structures. Ideally, a graph would capture the structure of the data with minimal connection between observations on separate structures.

We propose a scalable, efficient and statistically motivated computational framework for Graphical Lasso (Friedman et al., 2007b) - a covariance regularization framework that has received significant attention in the statistics community over the past few years. Existing algorithms have trouble in scaling to dimensions larger than a thousand. Our proposal significantly enhances the state-of-the-art for such moderate sized problems and gracefully scales to larger problems where other algorithms become practically infeasible. This requires a few key new ideas. We operate on the primal problem and use a subtle variation of block-coordinate-methods which drastically reduces the computational complexity by orders of magnitude. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees on the convergence and complexity of our algorithm and demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal via experiments. We believe that our framework extends the applicability of Graphical Lasso to large-scale modern applications like bioinformatics, collaborative filtering and social networks, among others.

We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data. Sparsity in the kernel weights is obtained by adopting a hierarchical Bayesian approach: Gaussian process priors are imposed over the latent functions and generalised inverse Gaussians on their associated weights. This construction is equivalent to imposing a product of heavy-tailed process priors over function space. A variational inference algorithm is derived for regression and binary classification. 1 Introduction Kernel-based methods are well-established tools for supervised learning, allowing to perform various tasks, such as regression or binary classification, with linear and nonlinear predictors.

Information diffusion and virus propagation are fundamental processes taking place in networks. While it is often possible to directly observe when nodes become infected with a virus or adopt the information, observing individual transmissions (i.e., who infects whom, or who influences whom) is typically very difficult. Furthermore, in many applications, the underlying network over which the diffusions and propagations spread is actually unobserved. We tackle these challenges by developing a method for tracing paths of diffusion and influence through networks and inferring the networks over which contagions propagate. Given the times when nodes adopt pieces of information or become infected, we identify the optimal network that best explains the observed infection times. Since the optimization problem is NP-hard to solve exactly, we develop an efficient approximation algorithm that scales to large datasets and finds provably near-optimal networks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by tracing information diffusion in a set of 170 million blogs and news articles over a one year period to infer how information flows through the online media space. We find that the diffusion network of news for the top 1,000 media sites and blogs tends to have a core-periphery structure with a small set of core media sites that diffuse information to the rest of the Web. These sites tend to have stable circles of influence with more general news media sites acting as connectors between them.