We propose a principled algorithm for robust Bayesian filtering and smoothing in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems when both the transition function and the measurement function are described by non-parametric Gaussian process (GP) models. GPs are gaining increasing importance in signal processing, machine learning, robotics, and control for representing unknown system functions by posterior probability distributions. This modern way of "system identification" is more robust than finding point estimates of a parametric function representation. In this article, we present a principled algorithm for robust analytic smoothing in GP dynamic systems, which are increasingly used in robotics and control. Our numerical evaluations demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach in situations where other state-of-the-art Gaussian filters and smoothers can fail.

We present two new and efficient algorithms for computing all-pairs shortest paths. The algorithms operate on directed graphs with real (possibly negative) weights. They make use of directed path consistency along a vertex ordering d. Both algorithms run in O(n^2 w_d) time, where w_d is the graph width induced by this vertex ordering. For graphs of constant treewidth, this yields O(n^2) time, which is optimal. On chordal graphs, the algorithms run in O(nm) time. In addition, we present a variant that exploits graph separators to arrive at a run time of O(n w_d^2 + n^2 s_d) on general graphs, where s_d <= w_d is the size of the largest minimal separator induced by the vertex ordering d. We show empirically that on both constructed and realistic benchmarks, in many cases the algorithms outperform Floyd-Warshall's as well as Johnson's algorithm, which represent the current state of the art with a run time of O(n^3) and O(nm + n^2 log n), respectively. Our algorithms can be used for spatial and temporal reasoning, such as for the Simple Temporal Problem, which underlines their relevance to the planning and scheduling community.

Local consistency techniques such as k-consistency are a key component of specialised solvers for constraint satisfaction problems. In this paper we show that the power of using k-consistency techniques on a constraint satisfaction problem is precisely captured by using a particular inference rule, which we call negative-hyper-resolution, on the standard direct encoding of the problem into Boolean clauses. We also show that current clause-learning SAT-solvers will discover in expected polynomial time any inconsistency that can be deduced from a given set of clauses using negative-hyper-resolvents of a fixed size. We combine these two results to show that, without being explicitly designed to do so, current clause-learning SAT-solvers efficiently simulate k-consistency techniques, for all fixed values of k. We then give some experimental results to show that this feature allows clause-learning SAT-solvers to efficiently solve certain families of constraint problems which are challenging for conventional constraint-programming solvers.

The starting point of this article is the question "How to retrieve fingerprints of rhythm in written texts?" We address this problem in the case of Brazilian and European Portuguese. These two dialects of Modern Portuguese share the same lexicon and most of the sentences they produce are superficially identical. Yet they are conjectured, on linguistic grounds, to implement different rhythms. We show that this linguistic question can be formulated as a problem of model selection in the class of variable length Markov chains. To carry on this approach, we compare texts from European and Brazilian Portuguese. These texts are previously encoded according to some basic rhythmic features of the sentences which can be automatically retrieved. This is an entirely new approach from the linguistic point of view. Our statistical contribution is the introduction of the smallest maximizer criterion which is a constant free procedure for model selection. As a by-product, this provides a solution for the problem of optimal choice of the penalty constant when using the BIC to select a variable length Markov chain. Besides proving the consistency of the smallest maximizer criterion when the sample size diverges, we also make a simulation study comparing our approach with both the standard BIC selection and the Peres-Shields order estimation. Applied to the linguistic sample constituted for our case study, the smallest maximizer criterion assigns different context-tree models to the two dialects of Portuguese. The features of the selected models are compatible with current conjectures discussed in the linguistic literature.

Graphical models use graphs to compactly capture stochastic dependencies amongst a collection of random variables. Inference over graphical models corresponds to finding marginal probability distributions given joint probability distributions. In general, this is computationally intractable, which has led to a quest for finding efficient approximate inference algorithms. We propose a framework for generalized inference over graphical models that can be used as a wrapper for improving the estimates of approximate inference algorithms. Instead of applying an inference algorithm to the original graph, we apply the inference algorithm to a block-graph, defined as a graph in which the nodes are non-overlapping clusters of nodes from the original graph. This results in marginal estimates of a cluster of nodes, which we further marginalize to get the marginal estimates of each node. Our proposed block-graph construction algorithm is simple, efficient, and motivated by the observation that approximate inference is more accurate on graphs with longer cycles. We present extensive numerical simulations that illustrate our block-graph framework with a variety of inference algorithms (e.g., those in the libDAI software package). These simulations show the improvements provided by our framework.

There is a vast supply of prior art that study models for mental processes. Some studies in psychology and philosophy approach it from an inner perspective in terms of experiences and percepts. Others such as neurobiology or connectionist-machines approach it externally by viewing the mind as complex circuit of neurons where each neuron is a primitive binary circuit. In this paper, we also model the mind as a place where a circuit grows, starting as a collection of primitive components at birth and then builds up incrementally in a bottom up fashion. A new node is formed by a simple composition of prior nodes when we undergo a repeated experience that can be described by that composition. Unlike neural networks, however, these circuits take "concepts" or "percepts" as inputs and outputs. Thus the growing circuits can be likened to a growing collection of lambda expressions that are built on top of one another in an attempt to compress the sensory input as a heuristic to bound its Kolmogorov Complexity.

Deep Boltzmann machines are in principle powerful models for extracting the hierarchical structure of data. Unfortunately, attempts to train layers jointly (without greedy layer-wise pretraining) have been largely unsuccessful. We propose a modification of the learning algorithm that initially recenters the output of the activation functions to zero. This modification leads to a better conditioned Hessian and thus makes learning easier. We test the algorithm on real data and demonstrate that our suggestion, the centered deep Boltzmann machine, learns a hierarchy of increasingly abstract representations and a better generative model of data.

Most existing distance metric learning methods assume perfect side information that is usually given in pairwise or triplet constraints. Instead, in many real-world applications, the constraints are derived from side information, such as users' implicit feedbacks and citations among articles. As a result, these constraints are usually noisy and contain many mistakes. In this work, we aim to learn a distance metric from noisy constraints by robust optimization in a worst-case scenario, to which we refer as robust metric learning. We formulate the learning task initially as a combinatorial optimization problem, and show that it can be elegantly transformed to a convex programming problem. We present an efficient learning algorithm based on smooth optimization [7]. It has a worst-case convergence rate of O(1/{\surd}{\varepsilon}) for smooth optimization problems, where {\varepsilon} is the desired error of the approximate solution. Finally, our empirical study with UCI data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison to state-of-the-art methods.

Multi-task learning is a learning paradigm which seeks to improve the generalization performance of a learning task with the help of some other related tasks. In this paper, we propose a regularization formulation for learning the relationships between tasks in multi-task learning. This formulation can be viewed as a novel generalization of the regularization framework for single-task learning. Besides modeling positive task correlation, our method, called multi-task relationship learning (MTRL), can also describe negative task correlation and identify outlier tasks based on the same underlying principle. Under this regularization framework, the objective function of MTRL is convex. For efficiency, we use an alternating method to learn the optimal model parameters for each task as well as the relationships between tasks. We study MTRL in the symmetric multi-task learning setting and then generalize it to the asymmetric setting as well. We also study the relationships between MTRL and some existing multi-task learning methods. Experiments conducted on a toy problem as well as several benchmark data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of MTRL.

Over the past two decades, several consistent procedures have been designed to infer causal conclusions from observational data. We prove that if the true causal network might be an arbitrary, linear Gaussian network or a discrete Bayes network, then every unambiguous causal conclusion produced by a consistent method from non-experimental data is subject to reversal as the sample size increases any finite number of times. That result, called the causal flipping theorem, extends prior results to the effect that causal discovery cannot be reliable on a given sample size. We argue that since repeated flipping of causal conclusions is unavoidable in principle for consistent methods, the best possible discovery methods are consistent methods that retract their earlier conclusions no more than necessary. A series of simulations of various methods across a wide range of sample sizes illustrates concretely both the theorem and the principle of comparing methods in terms of retractions.