The main goal of this paper is to describe a method for exact inference in general hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs) (with a mixture of discrete and continuous chance variables). Our method consists of approximating general hybrid Bayesian networks by a mixture of Gaussians (MoG) BNs. There exists a fast algorithm by Lauritzen-Jensen (LJ) for making exact inferences in MoG Bayesian networks, and there exists a commercial implementation of this algorithm. However, this algorithm can only be used for MoG BNs. Some limitations of such networks are as follows. All continuous chance variables must have conditional linear Gaussian distributions, and discrete chance nodes cannot have continuous parents. The methods described in this paper will enable us to use the LJ algorithm for a bigger class of hybrid Bayesian networks. This includes networks with continuous chance nodes with non-Gaussian distributions, networks with no restrictions on the topology of discrete and continuous variables, networks with conditionally deterministic variables that are a nonlinear function of their continuous parents, and networks with continuous chance variables whose variances are functions of their parents.

The subject of this paper is the elucidation of effects of actions from causal assumptions represented as a directed graph, and statistical knowledge given as a probability distribution. In particular, we are interested in predicting conditional distributions resulting from performing an action on a set of variables and, subsequently, taking measurements of another set. We provide a necessary and sufficient graphical condition for the cases where such distributions can be uniquely computed from the available information, as well as an algorithm which performs this computation whenever the condition holds. Furthermore, we use our results to prove completeness of do-calculus [Pearl, 1995] for the same identification problem.

We study the problem of learning the best Bayesian network structure with respect to a decomposable score such as BDe, BIC or AIC. This problem is known to be NP-hard, which means that solving it becomes quickly infeasible as the number of variables increases. Nevertheless, in this paper we show that it is possible to learn the best Bayesian network structure with over 30 variables, which covers many practically interesting cases. Our algorithm is less complicated and more efficient than the techniques presented earlier. It can be easily parallelized, and offers a possibility for efficient exploration of the best networks consistent with different variable orderings. In the experimental part of the paper we compare the performance of the algorithm to the previous state-of-the-art algorithm. Free source-code and an online-demo can be found at http://b-course.hiit.fi/bene.

Model-based learning algorithms have been shown to use experience efficiently when learning to solve Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with finite state and action spaces. However, their high computational cost due to repeatedly solving an internal model inhibits their use in large-scale problems. We propose a method based on real-time dynamic programming (RTDP) to speed up two model-based algorithms, RMAX and MBIE (model-based interval estimation), resulting in computationally much faster algorithms with little loss compared to existing bounds. Specifically, our two new learning algorithms, RTDP-RMAX and RTDP-IE, have considerably smaller computational demands than RMAX and MBIE. We develop a general theoretical framework that allows us to prove that both are efficient learners in a PAC (probably approximately correct) sense. We also present an experimental evaluation of these new algorithms that helps quantify the tradeoff between computational and experience demands.

We introduce a new dynamic model with the capability of recognizing both activities that an individual is performing as well as where that ndividual is located. Our model is novel in that it utilizes a dynamic graphical model to jointly estimate both activity and spatial context over time based on the simultaneous use of asynchronous observations consisting of GPS measurements, and measurements from a small mountable sensor board. Joint inference is quite desirable as it has the ability to improve accuracy of the model. A key goal, however, in designing our overall system is to be able to perform accurate inference decisions while minimizing the amount of hardware an individual must wear. This minimization leads to greater comfort and flexibility, decreased power requirements and therefore increased battery life, and reduced cost. We show results indicating that our joint measurement model outperforms measurements from either the sensor board or GPS alone, using two types of probabilistic inference procedures, namely particle filtering and pruned exact inference.

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful tools giving a natural and compact representation of joint probability distributions. In many applications one needs to learn a Bayesian Network (BN) from data. In this context, it is important to understand the number of samples needed in order to guarantee a successful learning. Previous work have studied BNs sample complexity, yet it mainly focused on the requirement that the learned distribution will be close to the original distribution which generated the data. In this work, we study a different aspect of the learning, namely the number of samples needed in order to learn the correct structure of the network. We give both asymptotic results, valid in the large sample limit, and experimental results, demonstrating the learning behavior for feasible sample sizes. We show that structure learning is a more difficult task, compared to approximating the correct distribution, in the sense that it requires a much larger number of samples, regardless of the computational power available for the learner.

This paper derives new bounds for the probabilities of causation defined by Pearl (2000), namely, the probability that one observed event was a necessary (or sufficient, or both) cause of another. Tian and Pearl (2000a, 2000b) showed how to bound these probabilities using information from experimental and observational studies,with minimal assumptions about the data-generating process. We derive narrower bounds using covariates measurements that might be available in the studies. In addition, we provide identifiable case under no-prevention assumption and discuss the covariate selection problem from the viewpoint of estimation accuracy. These results provides more accurate information for public policy, legal determination of responsibility and personal decision making.

We set up a model for reasoning about metric spaces with belief theoretic measures. The uncertainty in these spaces stems from both probability and metric. To represent both aspect of uncertainty, we choose an expected distance function as a measure of uncertainty. A formal logical system is constructed for the reasoning about expected distance. Soundness and completeness are shown for this logic. For reasoning on product metric space with uncertainty, a new metric is defined and shown to have good properties.

There are several existing algorithms that under appropriate assumptions can reliably identify a subset of the underlying causal relationships from observational data. This paper introduces the first computationally feasible score-based algorithm that can reliably identify causal relationships in the large sample limit for discrete models, while allowing for the possibility that there are unobserved common causes. In doing so, the algorithm does not ever need to assign scores to causal structures with unobserved common causes. The algorithm is based on the identification of so called Y substructures within Bayesian network structures that can be learned from observational data. An example of a Y substructure is A -> C, B -> C, C -> D. After providing background on causal discovery, the paper proves the conditions under which the algorithm is reliable in the large sample limit.

Previous work in hierarchical reinforcement learning has faced a dilemma: either ignore the values of different possible exit states from a subroutine, thereby risking suboptimal behavior, or represent those values explicitly thereby incurring a possibly large representation cost because exit values refer to nonlocal aspects of the world (i.e., all subsequent rewards). This paper shows that, in many cases, one can avoid both of these problems. The solution is based on recursively decomposing the exit value function in terms of Q-functions at higher levels of the hierarchy. This leads to an intuitively appealing runtime architecture in which a parent subroutine passes to its child a value function on the exit states and the child reasons about how its choices affect the exit value. We also identify structural conditions on the value function and transition distributions that allow much more concise representations of exit state distributions, leading to further state abstraction. In essence, the only variables whose exit values need be considered are those that the parent cares about and the child affects. We demonstrate the utility of our algorithms on a series of increasingly complex environments.