We investigate the problem of modeling symbolic sequences of polyphonic music in a completely general piano-roll representation. We introduce a probabilistic model based on distribution estimators conditioned on a recurrent neural network that is able to discover temporal dependencies in high-dimensional sequences. Our approach outperforms many traditional models of polyphonic music on a variety of realistic datasets. We show how our musical language model can serve as a symbolic prior to improve the accuracy of polyphonic transcription.

Much information available on the web is copied, reused or rephrased. The phenomenon that multiple web sources pick up certain information is often called trend. A central problem in the context of web data mining is to detect those web sources that are first to publish information which will give rise to a trend. We present a simple and efficient method for finding trends dominating a pool of web sources and identifying those web sources that publish the information relevant to a trend before others. We validate our approach on real data collected from influential technology news feeds.

In this paper we propose an algorithm that builds sparse decision DAGs (directed acyclic graphs) from a list of base classifiers provided by an external learning method such as AdaBoost. The basic idea is to cast the DAG design task as a Markov decision process. Each instance can decide to use or to skip each base classifier, based on the current state of the classifier being built. The result is a sparse decision DAG where the base classifiers are selected in a data-dependent way. The method has a single hyperparameter with a clear semantics of controlling the accuracy/speed trade-off. The algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art cascade detectors on three object-detection benchmarks, and it clearly outperforms them when there is a small number of base classifiers. Unlike cascades, it is also readily applicable for multi-class classification. Using the multi-class setup, we show on a benchmark web page ranking data set that we can significantly improve the decision speed without harming the performance of the ranker.

Locally adapted parameterizations of a model (such as locally weighted regression) are expressive but often suffer from high variance. We describe an approach for reducing this variance, based on the idea of estimating simultaneously a transformed space for the model and locally adapted parameterizations expressed in the new space. We present a new problem formulation that captures this idea and illustrate it in the important context of time varying models. We develop an algorithm for learning a set of bases for approximating a time varying sparse network; each learned basis constitutes an archetypal sparse network structure. We also provide an extension for learning task-specific bases.

This paper investigates two feature-scoring criteria that make use of estimated class probabilities: one method proposed by \citet{shen} and a complementary approach proposed below. We develop a theoretical framework to analyze each criterion and show that both estimate the spread (across all values of a given feature) of the probability that an example belongs to the positive class. Based on our analysis, we predict when each scoring technique will be advantageous over the other and give empirical results validating our predictions.

In this paper, we present a novel framework incorporating a combination of sparse models in different domains. We posit the observed data as generated from a linear combination of a sparse Gaussian Markov model (with a sparse precision matrix) and a sparse Gaussian independence model (with a sparse covariance matrix). We provide efficient methods for decomposition of the data into two domains, \viz Markov and independence domains. We characterize a set of sufficient conditions for identifiability and model consistency. Our decomposition method is based on a simple modification of the popular $\ell_1$-penalized maximum-likelihood estimator ($\ell_1$-MLE). We establish that our estimator is consistent in both the domains, i.e., it successfully recovers the supports of both Markov and independence models, when the number of samples $n$ scales as $n = \Omega(d^2 \log p)$, where $p$ is the number of variables and $d$ is the maximum node degree in the Markov model. Our conditions for recovery are comparable to those of $\ell_1$-MLE for consistent estimation of a sparse Markov model, and thus, we guarantee successful high-dimensional estimation of a richer class of models under comparable conditions. Our experiments validate these results and also demonstrate that our models have better inference accuracy under simple algorithms such as loopy belief propagation.

In this paper we address the following question: "Can we approximately sample from a Bayesian posterior distribution if we are only allowed to touch a small mini-batch of data-items for every sample we generate?". An algorithm based on the Langevin equation with stochastic gradients (SGLD) was previously proposed to solve this, but its mixing rate was slow. By leveraging the Bayesian Central Limit Theorem, we extend the SGLD algorithm so that at high mixing rates it will sample from a normal approximation of the posterior, while for slow mixing rates it will mimic the behavior of SGLD with a pre-conditioner matrix. As a bonus, the proposed algorithm is reminiscent of Fisher scoring (with stochastic gradients) and as such an efficient optimizer during burn-in.

Undirected graphical models, also known as Markov random fields or Markov networks, have become a part of the mainstream of statistical theory and application in recent years. These models use graphs to represent conditional independences among sets of random variables. In these graphs, the absence of an edge between two vertices means the corresponding random variables are conditionally independent, given the other variables. Learning the structure of a graph is equivalent to learning if there exists an edge between every pair of nodes in the graph. In the past decade, significant progress has been made on designing efficient algorithms to learn undirected graphs from high-dimensional observational datasets. Most of these methods are based on either the penalized maximum-likelihood estimation or penalized regression methods. Works has focused on the problem of estimating the graph in this high dimensional setting, which becomes feasible if graph is sparse.

The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets---which are increasingly prevalent---the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding computationally. While variants such as subsampling and the $m$ out of $n$ bootstrap can be used in principle to reduce the cost of bootstrap computations, we find that these methods are generally not robust to specification of hyperparameters (such as the number of subsampled data points), and they often require use of more prior information (such as rates of convergence of estimators) than the bootstrap. As an alternative, we introduce the Bag of Little Bootstraps (BLB), a new procedure which incorporates features of both the bootstrap and subsampling to yield a robust, computationally efficient means of assessing the quality of estimators. BLB is well suited to modern parallel and distributed computing architectures and furthermore retains the generic applicability and statistical efficiency of the bootstrap. We demonstrate BLB's favorable statistical performance via a theoretical analysis elucidating the procedure's properties, as well as a simulation study comparing BLB to the bootstrap, the $m$ out of $n$ bootstrap, and subsampling. In addition, we present results from a large-scale distributed implementation of BLB demonstrating its computational superiority on massive data, a method for adaptively selecting BLB's hyperparameters, an empirical study applying BLB to several real datasets, and an extension of BLB to time series data.

Recent work on approximate linear programming (ALP) techniques for first-order Markov Decision Processes (FOMDPs) represents the value function linearly w.r.t. a set of first-order basis functions and uses linear programming techniques to determine suitable weights. This approach offers the advantage that it does not require simplification of the first-order value function, and allows one to solve FOMDPs independent of a specific domain instantiation. In this paper, we address several questions to enhance the applicability of this work: (1) Can we extend the first-order ALP framework to approximate policy iteration to address performance deficiencies of previous approaches? (2) Can we automatically generate basis functions and evaluate their impact on value function quality? (3) How can we decompose intractable problems with universally quantified rewards into tractable subproblems? We propose answers to these questions along with a number of novel optimizations and provide a comparative empirical evaluation on logistics problems from the ICAPS 2004 Probabilistic Planning Competition.