In parsing, spurious ambiguity refers to ambiguity in a grammar that occurs because several derivations exist for an identical syntactic analysis. When the grammar is enriched with probabilities, the existence of spurious ambiguity implies that the statistical model is defined over derivations, a more fine-grained version of the actual syntactic structures of interest. The probability of a syntactic structure then becomes the marginalized probability over all derivations that map to that syntactic structure. Spurious ambiguity can exist in various grammatical models such as combinatory categorial grammars [Steedman, 2001], tree adjoining grammars [Joshi et al., 1975], data-oriented parsing [Bod, 1992] and transition-based dependency parsing [Nivre, 2005].

The problem of modeling and predicting spatiotemporal traffic phenomena over an urban road network is important to many traffic applications such as detecting and forecasting congestion hotspots. This paper presents a decentralized data fusion and active sensing (D2FAS) algorithm for mobile sensors to actively explore the road network to gather and assimilate the most informative data for predicting the traffic phenomenon. We analyze the time and communication complexity of D2FAS and demonstrate that it can scale well with a large number of observations and sensors. We provide a theoretical guarantee on its predictive performance to be equivalent to that of a sophisticated centralized sparse approximation for the Gaussian process (GP) model: The computation of such a sparse approximate GP model can thus be parallelized and distributed among the mobile sensors (in a Google-like MapReduce paradigm), thereby achieving efficient and scalable prediction. We also theoretically guarantee its active sensing performance that improves under various practical environmental conditions. Empirical evaluation on real-world urban road network data shows that our D2FAS algorithm is significantly more time-efficient and scalable than state-of-the-art centralized algorithms while achieving comparable predictive performance.

We consider in this paper the formulation of approximate inference in Bayesian networks as a problem of exact inference on an approximate network that results from deleting edges (to reduce treewidth). We have shown in earlier work that deleting edges calls for introducing auxiliary network parameters to compensate for lost dependencies, and proposed intuitive conditions for determining these parameters. We have also shown that our method corresponds to IBP when enough edges are deleted to yield a polytree, and corresponds to some generalizations of IBP when fewer edges are deleted. In this paper, we propose a different criteria for determining auxiliary parameters based on optimizing the KL-divergence between the original and approximate networks. We discuss the relationship between the two methods for selecting parameters, shedding new light on IBP and its generalizations. We also discuss the application of our new method to approximating inference problems which are exponential in constrained treewidth, including MAP and nonmyopic value of information.

Inference for probabilistic graphical models is still very much a practical challenge in large domains. The commonly used and effective belief propagation (BP) algorithm and its generalizations often do not converge when applied to hard, real-life inference tasks. While it is widely recognized that the scheduling of messages in these algorithms may have significant consequences, this issue remains largely unexplored. In this work, we address the question of how to schedule messages for asynchronous propagation so that a fixed point is reached faster and more often. We first show that any reasonable asynchronous BP converges to a unique fixed point under conditions similar to those that guarantee convergence of synchronous BP. In addition, we show that the convergence rate of a simple round-robin schedule is at least as good as that of synchronous propagation. We then propose residual belief propagation (RBP), a novel, easy-to-implement, asynchronous propagation algorithm that schedules messages in an informed way, that pushes down a bound on the distance from the fixed point. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of RBP over state-of-the-art methods for a variety of challenging synthetic and real-life problems: RBP converges significantly more often than other methods; and it significantly reduces running time until convergence, even when other methods converge.

Can one parallelize complex exploration exploitation tradeoffs? As an example, consider the problem of optimal high-throughput experimental design, where we wish to sequentially design batches of experiments in order to simultaneously learn a surrogate function mapping stimulus to response and identify the maximum of the function. We formalize the task as a multi-armed bandit problem, where the unknown payoff function is sampled from a Gaussian process (GP), and instead of a single arm, in each round we pull a batch of several arms in parallel. We develop GP-BUCB, a principled algorithm for choosing batches, based on the GP-UCB algorithm for sequential GP optimization. We prove a surprising result; as compared to the sequential approach, the cumulative regret of the parallel algorithm only increases by a constant factor independent of the batch size B. Our results provide rigorous theoretical support for exploiting parallelism in Bayesian global optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on two real-world applications.

In this paper we relate the partition function to the max-statistics of random variables. In particular, we provide a novel framework for approximating and bounding the partition function using MAP inference on randomly perturbed models. As a result, we can use efficient MAP solvers such as graph-cuts to evaluate the corresponding partition function. We show that our method excels in the typical "high signal - high coupling" regime that results in ragged energy landscapes difficult for alternative approaches.

Online learning algorithms are designed to learn even when their input is generated by an adversary. The widely-accepted formal definition of an online algorithm's ability to learn is the game-theoretic notion of regret. We argue that the standard definition of regret becomes inadequate if the adversary is allowed to adapt to the online algorithm's actions. We define the alternative notion of policy regret, which attempts to provide a more meaningful way to measure an online algorithm's performance against adaptive adversaries. Focusing on the online bandit setting, we show that no bandit algorithm can guarantee a sublinear policy regret against an adaptive adversary with unbounded memory. On the other hand, if the adversary's memory is bounded, we present a general technique that converts any bandit algorithm with a sublinear regret bound into an algorithm with a sublinear policy regret bound. We extend this result to other variants of regret, such as switching regret, internal regret, and swap regret.

In many cases it makes sense to model a relationship symmetrically, not implying any particular directionality. Consider the classical example of a recommendation system where the rating of an item by a user should symmetrically be dependent on the attributes of both the user and the item. The attributes of the (known) relationships are also relevant for predicting attributes of entities and for predicting attributes of new relations. In recommendation systems, the exploitation of relational attributes is often referred to as collaborative filtering. Again, in many applications one might prefer to model the collaborative effect in a symmetrical way. In this paper we present a relational model, which is completely symmetrical. The key innovation is that we introduce for each entity (or object) an infinite-dimensional latent variable as part of a Dirichlet process (DP) model. We discuss inference in the model, which is based on a DP Gibbs sampler, i.e., the Chinese restaurant process. We extend the Chinese restaurant process to be applicable to relational modeling. Our approach is evaluated in three applications. One is a recommendation system based on the MovieLens data set. The second application concerns the prediction of the function of yeast genes/proteins on the data set of KDD Cup 2001 using a multi-relational model. The third application involves a relational medical domain. The experimental results show that our model gives significantly improved estimates of attributes describing relationships or entities in complex relational models.

There exist several architectures to solve influence diagrams using local computations, such as the Shenoy-Shafer, the HUGIN, or the Lazy Propagation architectures. They all extend usual variable elimination algorithms thanks to the use of so-called 'potentials'. In this paper, we introduce a new architecture, called the Multi-operator Cluster DAG architecture, which can produce decompositions with an improved constrained induced-width, and therefore induce potentially exponential gains. Its principle is to benefit from the composite nature of influence diagrams, instead of using uniform potentials, in order to better analyze the problem structure.

Fast approximate nearest neighbor (NN) search in large databases is becoming popular. Several powerful learning-based formulations have been proposed recently. However, not much attention has been paid to a more fundamental question: how difficult is (approximate) nearest neighbor search in a given data set? And which data properties affect the difficulty of nearest neighbor search and how? This paper introduces the first concrete measure called Relative Contrast that can be used to evaluate the influence of several crucial data characteristics such as dimensionality, sparsity, and database size simultaneously in arbitrary normed metric spaces. Moreover, we present a theoretical analysis to prove how the difficulty measure (relative contrast) determines/affects the complexity of Local Sensitive Hashing, a popular approximate NN search method. Relative contrast also provides an explanation for a family of heuristic hashing algorithms with good practical performance based on PCA. Finally, we show that most of the previous works in measuring NN search meaningfulness/difficulty can be derived as special asymptotic cases for dense vectors of the proposed measure.