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Causal Discovery from Changes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of distributions produced by local changes, and devise algorithms that output graphical representations of these equivalence classes. We present experimental results, using simulated data, and examine the errors associated with detection of changes and recovery of structures.


Improved learning of Bayesian networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The search space of Bayesian Network structures is usually defined as Acyclic Directed Graphs (DAGs) and the search is done by local transformations of DAGs. But the space of Bayesian Networks is ordered by DAG Markov model inclusion and it is natural to consider that a good search policy should take this into account. First attempt to do this (Chickering 1996) was using equivalence classes of DAGs instead of DAGs itself. This approach produces better results but it is significantly slower. We present a compromise between these two approaches. It uses DAGs to search the space in such a way that the ordering by inclusion is taken into account. This is achieved by repetitive usage of local moves within the equivalence class of DAGs. We show that this new approach produces better results than the original DAGs approach without substantial change in time complexity. We present empirical results, within the framework of heuristic search and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provided through the Alarm dataset.


Conditions Under Which Conditional Independence and Scoring Methods Lead to Identical Selection of Bayesian Network Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It is often stated in papers tackling the task of inferring Bayesian network structures from data that there are these two distinct approaches: (i) Apply conditional independence tests when testing for the presence or otherwise of edges; (ii) Search the model space using a scoring metric. Here I argue that for complete data and a given node ordering this division is a myth, by showing that cross entropy methods for checking conditional independence are mathematically identical to methods based upon discriminating between models by their overall goodness-of-fit logarithmic scores.


The Optimal Reward Baseline for Gradient-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There exist a number of reinforcement learning algorithms which learnby climbing the gradient of expected reward. Their long-runconvergence has been proved, even in partially observableenvironments with non-deterministic actions, and without the need fora system model. However, the variance of the gradient estimator hasbeen found to be a significant practical problem. Recent approacheshave discounted future rewards, introducing a bias-variance trade-offinto the gradient estimate. We incorporate a reward baseline into thelearning system, and show that it affects variance without introducingfurther bias. In particular, as we approach the zero-bias,high-variance parameterization, the optimal (or variance minimizing)constant reward baseline is equal to the long-term average expectedreward. Modified policy-gradient algorithms are presented, and anumber of experiments demonstrate their improvement over previous work.


Spectral Clustering Based on Local PCA

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a spectral clustering method based on local principal components analysis (PCA). After performing local PCA in selected neighborhoods, the algorithm builds a nearest neighbor graph weighted according to a discrepancy between the principal subspaces in the neighborhoods, and then applies spectral clustering. As opposed to standard spectral methods based solely on pairwise distances between points, our algorithm is able to resolve intersections. We establish theoretical guarantees for simpler variants within a prototypical mathematical framework for multi-manifold clustering, and evaluate our algorithm on various simulated data sets.


Heteroscedastic Relevance Vector Machine

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this work we propose a heteroscedastic generalization to RVM, a fast Bayesian framework for regression, based on some recent similar works. We use variational approximation and expectation propagation to tackle the problem. The work is still under progress and we are examining the results and comparing with the previous works.


Syntactic Analysis Based on Morphological Characteristic Features of the Romanian Language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper refers to the syntactic analysis of phrases in Romanian, as an important process of natural language processing. We will suggest a real-time solution, based on the idea of using some words or groups of words that indicate grammatical category; and some specific endings of some parts of sentence. Our idea is based on some characteristics of the Romanian language, where some prepositions, adverbs or some specific endings can provide a lot of information about the structure of a complex sentence. Such characteristics can be found in other languages, too, such as French. Using a special grammar, we developed a system (DIASEXP) that can perform a dialogue in natural language with assertive and interogative sentences about a "story" (a set of sentences describing some events from the real life).


Distance Metric Learning for Kernel Machines

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent work in metric learning has significantly improved the state-of-the-art in k-nearest neighbor classification. Support vector machines (SVM), particularly with RBF kernels, are amongst the most popular classification algorithms that uses distance metrics to compare examples. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the efficacy of three of the most popular Mahalanobis metric learning algorithms as pre-processing for SVM training. We show that none of these algorithms generate metrics that lead to particularly satisfying improvements for SVM-RBF classification. As a remedy we introduce support vector metric learning (SVML), a novel algorithm that seamlessly combines the learning of a Mahalanobis metric with the training of the RBF-SVM parameters. We demonstrate the capabilities of SVML on nine benchmark data sets of varying sizes and difficulties. In our study, SVML outperforms all alternative state-of-the-art metric learning algorithms in terms of accuracy and establishes itself as a serious alternative to the standard Euclidean metric with model selection by cross validation.


Linear Bandits in High Dimension and Recommendation Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A large number of online services provide automated recommendations to help users to navigate through a large collection of items. New items (products, videos, songs, advertisements) are suggested on the basis of the user's past history and --when available-- her demographic profile. Recommendations have to satisfy the dual goal of helping the user to explore the space of available items, while allowing the system to probe the user's preferences. We model this trade-off using linearly parametrized multi-armed bandits, propose a policy and prove upper and lower bounds on the cumulative "reward" that coincide up to constants in the data poor (high-dimensional) regime. Prior work on linear bandits has focused on the data rich (low-dimensional) regime and used cumulative "risk" as the figure of merit. For this data rich regime, we provide a simple modification for our policy that achieves near-optimal risk performance under more restrictive assumptions on the geometry of the problem. We test (a variation of) the scheme used for establishing achievability on the Netflix and MovieLens datasets and obtain good agreement with the qualitative predictions of the theory we develop.


A Logic Programming Approach to Integration Network Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The discovery, representation and reconstruction of (technical) integration networks from Network Mining (NM) raw data is a difficult problem for enterprises. This is due to large and complex IT landscapes within and across enterprise boundaries, heterogeneous technology stacks, and fragmented data. To remain competitive, visibility into the enterprise and partner IT networks on different, interrelated abstraction levels is desirable. We present an approach to represent and reconstruct the integration networks from NM raw data using logic programming based on first-order logic. The raw data expressed as integration network model is represented as facts, on which rules are applied to reconstruct the network. We have built a system that is used to apply this approach to real-world enterprise landscapes and we report on our experience with this system.