This paper provides a formal and practical framework for sound abstraction of probabilistic actions. We start by precisely defining the concept of sound abstraction within the context of finite-horizon planning (where each plan is a finite sequence of actions). Next we show that such abstraction cannot be performed within the traditional probabilistic action representation, which models a world with a single probability distribution over the state space. We then present the constraint mass assignment representation, which models the world with a set of probability distributions and is a generalization of mass assignment representations. Within this framework, we present sound abstraction procedures for three types of action abstraction. We end the paper with discussions and related work on sound and approximate abstraction. We give pointers to papers in which we discuss other sound abstraction-related issues, including applications, estimating loss due to abstraction, and automatically generating abstraction hierarchies.

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner that Z=h(x_1, ..., x_i-1, X_i, ..., X_n) is guaranteed to be in the tail of Z. When this method is difficult to apply, an alternative method is proposed, which leads to a low rejection proportion of sample values, when compared with the Monte Carlo method. Both methods are shown to be very useful to perform a sensitivity analysis of Bayesian networks, when very large confidence intervals for the marginal/conditional probabilities are required, as in reliability or risk analysis. The methods are shown to behave best when all scores coincide. The required modifications for this to occur are discussed. The methods are illustrated with several examples and one example of application to a real case is used to illustrate the whole process.

This paper discusses belief revision under uncertain inputs in the framework of possibility theory. Revision can be based on two possible definitions of the conditioning operation, one based on min operator which requires a purely ordinal scale only, and another based on product, for which a richer structure is needed, and which is a particular case of Dempster's rule of conditioning. Besides, revision under uncertain inputs can be understood in two different ways depending on whether the input is viewed, or not, as a constraint to enforce. Moreover, it is shown that M.A. Williams' transmutations, originally defined in the setting of Spohn's functions, can be captured in this framework, as well as Boutilier's natural revision.

Possibility theory offers a framework where both Lehmann's "preferential inference" and the more productive (but less cautious) "rational closure inference" can be represented. However, there are situations where the second inference does not provide expected results either because it cannot produce them, or even provide counter-intuitive conclusions. This state of facts is not due to the principle of selecting a unique ordering of interpretations (which can be encoded by one possibility distribution), but rather to the absence of constraints expressing pieces of knowledge we have implicitly in mind. It is advocated in this paper that constraints induced by independence information can help finding the right ordering of interpretations. In particular, independence constraints can be systematically assumed with respect to formulas composed of literals which do not appear in the conditional knowledge base, or for default rules with respect to situations which are "normal" according to the other default rules in the base. The notion of independence which is used can be easily expressed in the qualitative setting of possibility theory. Moreover, when a counter-intuitive plausible conclusion of a set of defaults, is in its rational closure, but not in its preferential closure, it is always possible to repair the set of defaults so as to produce the desired conclusion.

Lower and upper probabilities, also known as Choquet capacities, are widely used as a convenient representation for sets of probability distributions. This paper presents a graphical decomposition and exact propagation algorithm for computing marginal posteriors of 2-monotone lower probabilities (equivalently, 2-alternating upper probabilities).

Many algorithms for processing probabilistic networks are dependent on the topological properties of the problem's structure. Such algorithms (e.g., clustering, conditioning) are effective only if the problem has a sparse graph captured by parameters such as tree width and cycle-cut set size. In this paper we initiate a study to determine the potential of structure-based algorithms in real-life applications. We analyze empirically the structural properties of problems coming from the circuit diagnosis domain. Specifically, we locate those properties that capture the effectiveness of clustering and conditioning as well as of a family of conditioning+clustering algorithms designed to gradually trade space for time. We perform our analysis on 11 benchmark circuits widely used in the testing community. We also report on the effect of ordering heuristics on tree-clustering and show that, on our benchmarks, the well-known max-cardinality ordering is substantially inferior to an ordering called min-degree.

We report on work towards flexible algorithms for solving decision problems represented as influence diagrams. An algorithm is given to construct a tree structure for each decision node in an influence diagram. Each tree represents a decision function and is constructed incrementally. The improvements to the tree converge to the optimal decision function (neglecting computational costs) and the asymptotic behaviour is only a constant factor worse than dynamic programming techniques, counting the number of Bayesian network queries. Empirical results show how expected utility increases with the size of the tree and the number of Bayesian net calculations.

Inference algorithms for arbitrary belief networks are impractical for large, complex belief networks. Inference algorithms for specialized classes of belief networks have been shown to be more efficient. In this paper, we present a search-based algorithm for approximate inference on arbitrary, noisy-OR belief networks, generalizing earlier work on search-based inference for two-level, noisy-OR belief networks. Initial experimental results appear promising.

An algorithm is developed for finding a close to optimal junction tree of a given graph G. The algorithm has a worst case complexity O(c^k n^a) where a and c are constants, n is the number of vertices, and k is the size of the largest clique in a junction tree of G in which this size is minimized. The algorithm guarantees that the logarithm of the size of the state space of the heaviest clique in the junction tree produced is less than a constant factor off the optimal value. When k = O(log n), our algorithm yields a polynomial inference algorithm for Bayesian networks.

Approaches to learning Bayesian networks from data typically combine a scoring function with a heuristic search procedure. Given a Bayesian network structure, many of the scoring functions derived in the literature return a score for the entire equivalence class to which the structure belongs. When using such a scoring function, it is appropriate for the heuristic search algorithm to search over equivalence classes of Bayesian networks as opposed to individual structures. We present the general formulation of a search space for which the states of the search correspond to equivalence classes of structures. Using this space, any one of a number of heuristic search algorithms can easily be applied. We compare greedy search performance in the proposed search space to greedy search performance in a search space for which the states correspond to individual Bayesian network structures.