In this paper we prove the probabilistic continuous complexity conjecture. In continuous complexity theory, this states that the complexity of solving a continuous problem with probability approaching 1 converges (in this limit) to the complexity of solving the same problem in its worst case. We prove the conjecture holds if and only if space of problem elements is uniformly convex. The non-uniformly convex case has a striking counterexample in the problem of identifying a Brownian path in Wiener space, where it is shown that probabilistic complexity converges to only half of the worst case complexity in this limit.

We present a graph-based variational algorithm for multiclass classification of high-dimensional data, motivated by total variation techniques. The energy functional is based on a diffuse interface model with a periodic potential. We augment the model by introducing an alternative measure of smoothness that preserves symmetry among the class labels. Through this modification of the standard Laplacian, we construct an efficient multiclass method that allows for sharp transitions between classes. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach is competitive with the state of the art among other graph-based algorithms.

A majority of scientific and commercial data is stored in relational databases. Probabilistic models over such datasets would allow probabilistic queries, error checking, and inference of missing values, but to this day machine learning expertise is required to construct accurate models. Fortunately, current probabilistic programming tools ease the task of constructing such models [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] and work in statistical relational learning has focused on making it even easier to define models specific to relational data [7, 8, 9, 10]. However, within these frameworks the user still needs to specify all the probabilistic dependencies in the data, requiring a level of expertise in probability and statistics that domain experts often do not have, thus severely restricting the practical applications of such techniques. On the other hand, domain experts do spend considerable effort and expertise in designing the database schemata used to represent their data, providing type information for table columns and foreign key relations to specify dependencies.

Many problems in sequential decision making and stochastic control often have natural multiscale structure: sub-tasks are assembled together to accomplish complex goals. Systematically inferring and leveraging hierarchical structure, particularly beyond a single level of abstraction, has remained a longstanding challenge. We describe a fast multiscale procedure for repeatedly compressing, or homogenizing, Markov decision processes (MDPs), wherein a hierarchy of sub-problems at different scales is automatically determined. Coarsened MDPs are themselves independent, deterministic MDPs, and may be solved using existing algorithms. The multiscale representation delivered by this procedure decouples sub-tasks from each other and can lead to substantial improvements in convergence rates both locally within sub-problems and globally across sub-problems, yielding significant computational savings. A second fundamental aspect of this work is that these multiscale decompositions yield new transfer opportunities across different problems, where solutions of sub-tasks at different levels of the hierarchy may be amenable to transfer to new problems. Localized transfer of policies and potential operators at arbitrary scales is emphasized. Finally, we demonstrate compression and transfer in a collection of illustrative domains, including examples involving discrete and continuous statespaces. Keywords: Markov decision processes, hierarchical reinforcement learning, transfer, multiscale analysis.

It is claimed that an explicit partition of information into a priori (prior knowledge) and a posteriori information (data) is an important way of standardizing inference approaches so that they can be compared on a normative scale, and so that notions of optimal algorithms become farther-reaching. The inference methods considered include neural network approaches, information-based complexity, and Monte Carlo, spline, and regularization methods. The model is an extension of currently used continuous complexity models, with a class of algorithms in the form of optimization methods, in which an optimization functional (involving the data) is minimized. This extends the family of current approaches in continuous complexity theory, which include the use of interpolatory algorithms in worst and average case settings.

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) has been used successfully in recent years in the area of recommender systems. In this paper we present how this model can be extended to consider both user ratings and information from Wikipedia. By mapping items to Wikipedia pages and quantifying their similarity, we are able to use this information in order to improve recommendation accuracy, especially when the sparsity is high. Another advantage of the proposed approach is the fact that it can be easily integrated into any other SVD implementation, regardless of additional parameters that may have been added to it. Preliminary experimental results on the MovieLens dataset are encouraging.

Machine Learning manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract This paper considers the challenge of evaluating a set of classifiers, as done in shared task evaluations like the KDD Cup or NIST TREC, without expert labels. While expert labels provide the traditional cornerstone for evaluating statistical learners, limited or expensive access to experts represents a practical bottleneck. Instead, we seek methodology for estimating performance of the classifiers (relative and absolute) which is more scalable than expert labeling yet preserves high correlation with evaluation based on expert labels. We consider both: 1) using only labels automatically generated by the classifiers themselves (blind evaluation); and 2) using labels obtained via crowdsourcing. While crowdsourcing methods are lauded for scalability, using such data for evaluation raises serious concerns given the prevalence of label noise. In regard to blind evaluation, two broad strategies are investigated: combine & score and score & combine. Combine & Score methods infer a single "pseudo-gold" label set by aggregating classifier labels; classifiers are then evaluated based on this single pseudo-gold label set. On the other hand, score & combine methods: i) sample multiple label sets from classifier outputs, ii) evaluate classifiers on each label set, and iii) average classifier performance across label sets. When additional crowd labels are also collected, we investigate two alternative avenues for exploiting them: 1) direct evaluation of classifiers; or 2) supervision of combine-and-score methods. To assess generality of our techniques, classifier performance is measured using four common classification metrics, with statistical significance tests establishing relative performance of the classifiers for each metric. Finally, we measure both score and rank correlations between estimated classifier performance vs. actual performance according to expert judgments. Rigorous evaluation of classifiers from the TREC 2011 Crowdsourcing Track shows reliable evaluation can be achieved without reliance on expert labels.

Most machine learning algorithms, such as classification or regression, treat the individual data point as the object of interest. Here we consider extending machine learning algorithms to operate on groups of data points. We suggest treating a group of data points as an i.i.d. sample set from an underlying feature distribution for that group. Our approach employs kernel machines with a kernel on i.i.d. sample sets of vectors. We define certain kernel functions on pairs of distributions, and then use a nonparametric estimator to consistently estimate those functions based on sample sets. The projection of the estimated Gram matrix to the cone of symmetric positive semi-definite matrices enables us to use kernel machines for classification, regression, anomaly detection, and low-dimensional embedding in the space of distributions. We present several numerical experiments both on real and simulated datasets to demonstrate the advantages of our new approach.

The accuracy of machine learning systems is a widely studied research topic. Established techniques such as cross-validation predict the accuracy on unseen data of the classifier produced by applying a given learning method to a given training data set. However, they do not predict whether incurring the cost of obtaining more data and undergoing further training will lead to higher accuracy. In this paper we investigate techniques for making such early predictions. We note that when a machine learning algorithm is presented with a training set the classifier produced, and hence its error, will depend on the characteristics of the algorithm, on training set's size, and also on its specific composition. In particular we hypothesise that if a number of classifiers are produced, and their observed error is decomposed into bias and variance terms, then although these components may behave differently, their behaviour may be predictable. We test our hypothesis by building models that, given a measurement taken from the classifier created from a limited number of samples, predict the values that would be measured from the classifier produced when the full data set is presented. We create separate models for bias, variance and total error. Our models are built from the results of applying ten different machine learning algorithms to a range of data sets, and tested with "unseen" algorithms and datasets. We analyse the results for various numbers of initial training samples, and total dataset sizes. Results show that our predictions are very highly correlated with the values observed after undertaking the extra training. Finally we consider the more complex case where an ensemble of heterogeneous classifiers is trained, and show how we can accurately estimate an upper bound on the accuracy achievable after further training.

We consider an important class of signal processing problems where the signal of interest is known to be sparse, and can be recovered from data given auxiliary information about how the data was generated. For example, a sparse Green's function may be recovered from seismic experimental data using sparsity optimization when the source signature is known. Unfortunately, in practice this information is often missing, and must be recovered from data along with the signal using deconvolution techniques. In this paper, we present a novel methodology to simultaneously solve for the sparse signal and auxiliary parameters using a recently proposed variable projection technique. Our main contribution is to combine variable projection with sparsity promoting optimization, obtaining an efficient algorithm for large-scale sparse deconvolution problems. We demonstrate the algorithm on a seismic imaging example.