Follow-the-Leader (FTL) is an intuitive sequential prediction strategy that guarantees constant regret in the stochastic setting, but has terrible performance for worst-case data. Other hedging strategies have better worst-case guarantees but may perform much worse than FTL if the data are not maximally adversarial. We introduce the FlipFlop algorithm, which is the first method that provably combines the best of both worlds. As part of our construction, we develop AdaHedge, which is a new way of dynamically tuning the learning rate in Hedge without using the doubling trick. AdaHedge refines a method by Cesa-Bianchi, Mansour and Stoltz (2007), yielding slightly improved worst-case guarantees. By interleaving AdaHedge and FTL, the FlipFlop algorithm achieves regret within a constant factor of the FTL regret, without sacrificing AdaHedge's worst-case guarantees. AdaHedge and FlipFlop do not need to know the range of the losses in advance; moreover, unlike earlier methods, both have the intuitive property that the issued weights are invariant under rescaling and translation of the losses. The losses are also allowed to be negative, in which case they may be interpreted as gains.

This paper has been originally published as "A study on using uncertain time series matching algorithms for MapReduce applications" in Journal of Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience - Special Issue in Cloud Computing Scalability, John Wiley Publisher. We realized that the original title is not appropriate and cannot be found by people working in this area. Therefore, this text is for changing the title but the original paper can be found at the rest of this text (starting from the next page). For citation, please cite the original title as: NB Rizvandi, J Taheri, R Moraveji, AY Zomaya, "A study on using uncertain time series matching algorithms for MapReduce applications", Journal of Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience - Special Issue in Cloud Computing Scalability, John Wiley Publisher (2012) A Study on Using Uncertain Time Series Matching Algorithms for MapReduce Applications Abstract--In this paper, we study CPU utilization time patterns of several MapReduce applications. After extracting running patterns of several applications, the patterns along with their statistical information are saved in a reference database to be later used to tweak system parameters to efficiently execute future unknown applications. To achieve this goal, CPU utilization patterns of new applications along with its statistical information are compared with the already known ones in the reference database to find/predict their most probable execution patterns. Because of different pattern lengths, the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is utilized for such comparison; a statistical analysis is then applied to DTWs' outcomes to select the most suitable candidates. Furthermore, under a hypothesis, we also proposed another algorithm to classify applications under similar CPU utilization patterns. Finally, dependency between minimum distance/maximum similarity of applications and their scalability (in both input size and number of virtual nodes) are studied.

In this paper, we study the problem of optimal multi-robot path planning (MPP) on graphs. We propose two multiflow based integer linear programming (ILP) models that computes minimum last arrival time and minimum total distance solutions for our MPP formulation, respectively. The resulting algorithms from these ILP models are complete and guaranteed to yield true optimal solutions. In addition, our flexible framework can easily accommodate other variants of the MPP problem. Focusing on the time optimal algorithm, we evaluate its performance, both as a stand alone algorithm and as a generic heuristic for quickly solving large problem instances. Computational results confirm the effectiveness of our method.

The objective of change-point detection is to discover abrupt property changes lying behind time-series data. In this paper, we present a novel statistical change-point detection algorithm based on non-parametric divergence estimation between time-series samples from two retrospective segments. Our method uses the relative Pearson divergence as a divergence measure, and it is accurately and efficiently estimated by a method of direct density-ratio estimation. Through experiments on artificial and real-world datasets including human-activity sensing, speech, and Twitter messages, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

We introduce Game networks (G nets), a novel representation for multi-agent decision problems. Compared to other game-theoretic representations, such as strategic or extensive forms, G nets are more structured and more compact; more fundamentally, G nets constitute a computationally advantageous framework for strategic inference, as both probability and utility independencies are captured in the structure of the network and can be exploited in order to simplify the inference process. An important aspect of multi-agent reasoning is the identification of some or all of the strategic equilibria in a game; we present original convergence methods for strategic equilibrium which can take advantage of strategic separabilities in the G net structure in order to simplify the computations. Specifically, we describe a method which identifies a unique equilibrium as a function of the game payoffs, and one which identifies all equilibria.

We focus in this paper on dataset reduction techniques for use in k-nearest neighbor classification. In such a context, feature and prototype selections have always been independently treated by the standard storage reduction algorithms. While this certifying is theoretically justified by the fact that each subproblem is NP-hard, we assume in this paper that a joint storage reduction is in fact more intuitive and can in practice provide better results than two independent processes. Moreover, it avoids a lot of distance calculations by progressively removing useless instances during the feature pruning. While standard selection algorithms often optimize the accuracy to discriminate the set of solutions, we use in this paper a criterion based on an uncertainty measure within a nearest-neighbor graph. This choice comes from recent results that have proven that accuracy is not always the suitable criterion to optimize. In our approach, a feature or an instance is removed if its deletion improves information of the graph. Numerous experiments are presented in this paper and a statistical analysis shows the relevance of our approach, and its tolerance in the presence of noise.

We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant points in the target distribution. We prove that it is possible to introduce search and still maintain unbiasedness. We then demonstrate our procedure on a few simple inference tasks and show that it can improve the inference quality of standard MCMC methods, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis sampling, and Hybrid Monte Carlo. This paper extends previous work which showed how greedy importance sampling could be correctly realized in the one-dimensional case.

Feature selection aims to select the smallest subset of features for a specified level of performance. The optimal achievable classification performance on a feature subset is summarized by its Receiver Operating Curve (ROC). When infinite data is available, the Neyman- Pearson (NP) design procedure provides the most efficient way of obtaining this curve. In practice the design procedure is applied to density estimates from finite data sets. We perform a detailed statistical analysis of the resulting error propagation on finite alphabets. We show that the estimated performance curve (EPC) produced by the design procedure is arbitrarily accurate given sufficient data, independent of the size of the feature set. However, the underlying likelihood ranking procedure is highly sensitive to errors that reduces the probability that the EPC is in fact the ROC. In the worst case, guaranteeing that the EPC is equal to the ROC may require data sizes exponential in the size of the feature set. These results imply that in theory the NP design approach may only be valid for characterizing relatively small feature subsets, even when the performance of any given classifier can be estimated very accurately. We discuss the practical limitations for on-line methods that ensures that the NP procedure operates in a statistically valid region.

This paper extends the work in [Suzuki, 1996] and presents an efficient depth-first branch-and-bound algorithm for learning Bayesian network structures, based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle, for a given (consistent) variable ordering. The algorithm exhaustively searches through all network structures and guarantees to find the network with the best MDL score. Preliminary experiments show that the algorithm is efficient, and that the time complexity grows slowly with the sample size. The algorithm is useful for empirically studying both the performance of suboptimal heuristic search algorithms and the adequacy of the MDL principle in learning Bayesian networks.

In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to answer these questions. However, when the amount of available data is modest, there might be many models that have non-negligible posterior. Thus, we want compute the Bayesian posterior of a feature, i.e., the total posterior probability of all models that contain it. In this paper, we propose a new approach for this task. We first show how to efficiently compute a sum over the exponential number of networks that are consistent with a fixed ordering over network variables. This allows us to compute, for a given ordering, both the marginal probability of the data and the posterior of a feature. We then use this result as the basis for an algorithm that approximates the Bayesian posterior of a feature. Our approach uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, but over orderings rather than over network structures. The space of orderings is much smaller and more regular than the space of structures, and has a smoother posterior `landscape'. We present empirical results on synthetic and real-life datasets that compare our approach to full model averaging (when possible), to MCMC over network structures, and to a non-Bayesian bootstrap approach.