Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of distributions. Two approaches for combination of local models are considered. The first approach takes the largest set of joint distributions that is compatible with the local sets of distributions; we show how to reduce this type of robust inference to a linear programming problem. The second approach takes the convex hull of joint distributions generated from the local sets of distributions; we demonstrate how to apply interior-point optimization methods to generate posterior bounds and how to generate approximations that are guaranteed to converge to correct posterior bounds. We also discuss calculation of bounds for expected utilities and variances, and global perturbation models.

This paper introduces a new algorithm for the induction of complex finite state automata from samples of behaviour. The algorithm is based on information theoretic principles. The algorithm reduces the search space by many orders of magnitude over what was previously thought possible. We compare the algorithm with some existing induction techniques for finite state automata and show that the algorithm is much superior in both run time and quality of inductions.

It has been shown that a class of probabilistic domain models cannot be learned correctly by several existing algorithms which employ a single-link look ahead search. When a multi-link look ahead search is used, the computational complexity of the learning algorithm increases. We study how to use parallelism to tackle the increased complexity in learning such models and to speed up learning in large domains. An algorithm is proposed to decompose the learning task for parallel processing. A further task decomposition is used to balance load among processors and to increase the speed-up and efficiency. For learning from very large datasets, we present a regrouping of the available processors such that slow data access through file can be replaced by fast memory access. Our implementation in a parallel computer demonstrates the effectiveness of the algorithm.

We present an algorithm for arc reversal in Bayesian networks with tree-structured conditional probability tables, and consider some of its advantages, especially for the simulation of dynamic probabilistic networks. In particular, the method allows one to produce CPTs for nodes involved in the reversal that exploit regularities in the conditional distributions. We argue that this approach alleviates some of the overhead associated with arc reversal, plays an important role in evidence integration and can be used to restrict sampling of variables in DPNs. We also provide an algorithm that detects the dynamic irrelevance of state variables in forward simulation. This algorithm exploits the structured CPTs in a reversed network to determine, in a time-independent fashion, the conditions under which a variable does or does not need to be sampled.

As probabilistic systems gain popularity and are coming into wider use, the need for a mechanism that explains the system's findings and recommendations becomes more critical. The system will also need a mechanism for ordering competing explanations. We examine two representative approaches to explanation in the literature - one due to G\"ardenfors and one due to Pearl - and show that both suffer from significant problems. We propose an approach to defining a notion of "better explanation" that combines some of the features of both together with more recent work by Pearl and others on causality.

Most exact algorithms for general partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) use a form of dynamic programming in which a piecewise-linear and convex representation of one value function is transformed into another. We examine variations of the "incremental pruning" method for solving this problem and compare them to earlier algorithms from theoretical and empirical perspectives. We find that incremental pruning is presently the most efficient exact method for solving POMDPs.

Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The mathematical Theory of Evidence offers representation formalisms which grant experts a high degree of freedom when expressing their subjective beliefs in the context of decision-making situations like performance prediction. Furthermore, this reasoning framework incorporates a powerful mechanism to systematically pool the decisions made by individual subject matter experts. The idea behind such a combination of knowledge is to improve the competence (quality) of the overall decision-making process. This paper reports on a performance prediction experiment carried out during the European Football Championship in 1996. Relying on the knowledge of four predictors, Evidence Theory was used to forecast the final scores of all 31 matches. The results of this empirical study are very encouraging.

Much recent research in decision theoretic planning has adopted Markov decision processes (MDPs) as the model of choice, and has attempted to make their solution more tractable by exploiting problem structure. One particular algorithm, structured policy construction achieves this by means of a decision theoretic analog of goal regression using action descriptions based on Bayesian networks with tree-structured conditional probability tables. The algorithm as presented is not able to deal with actions with correlated effects. We describe a new decision theoretic regression operator that corrects this weakness. While conceptually straightforward, this extension requires a somewhat more complicated technical approach.

Wide-angle sonar mapping of the environment by mobile robot is nontrivial due to several sources of uncertainty: dropouts due to "specular" reflections, obstacle location uncertainty due to the wide beam, and distance measurement error. Earlier papers address the latter problems, but dropouts remain a problem in many environments. We present an approach that lifts the overoptimistic independence assumption used in earlier work, and use Bayes nets to represent the dependencies between objects of the model. Objects of the model consist of readings, and of regions in which "quasi location invariance" of the (possible) obstacles exists, with respect to the readings. Simulation supports the method's feasibility. The model is readily extensible to allow for prior distributions, as well as other types of sensing operations.

The complex wave representation (CWR) converts unsigned 2D distance transforms into their corresponding wave functions. Here, the distance transform S(X) appears as the phase of the wave function \phi(X)---specifically, \phi(X)=exp(iS(X)/\tau where \tau is a free parameter. In this work, we prove a novel result using the higher-order stationary phase approximation: we show convergence of the normalized power spectrum (squared magnitude of the Fourier transform) of the wave function to the density function of the distance transform gradients as the free parameter \tau-->0. In colloquial terms, spatial frequencies are gradient histogram bins. Since the distance transform gradients have only orientation information (as their magnitudes are identically equal to one almost everywhere), as \tau-->0, the 2D Fourier transform values mainly lie on the unit circle in the spatial frequency domain. The proof of the result involves standard integration techniques and requires proper ordering of limits. Our mathematical relation indicates that the CWR of distance transforms is an intriguing, new representation.