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Network Detection Theory and Performance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Network detection is an important capability in many areas of applied research in which data can be represented as a graph of entities and relationships. Oftentimes the object of interest is a relatively small subgraph in an enormous, potentially uninteresting background. This aspect characterizes network detection as a "big data" problem. Graph partitioning and network discovery have been major research areas over the last ten years, driven by interest in internet search, cyber security, social networks, and criminal or terrorist activities. The specific problem of network discovery is addressed as a special case of graph partitioning in which membership in a small subgraph of interest must be determined. Algebraic graph theory is used as the basis to analyze and compare different network detection methods. A new Bayesian network detection framework is introduced that partitions the graph based on prior information and direct observations. The new approach, called space-time threat propagation, is proved to maximize the probability of detection and is therefore optimum in the Neyman-Pearson sense. This optimality criterion is compared to spectral community detection approaches which divide the global graph into subsets or communities with optimal connectivity properties. We also explore a new generative stochastic model for covert networks and analyze using receiver operating characteristics the detection performance of both classes of optimal detection techniques.


Robust and Trend Following Student's t Kalman Smoothers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a Kalman smoothing framework based on modeling errors using the heavy tailed Student's t distribution, along with algorithms, convergence theory, open-source general implementation, and several important applications. The computational effort per iteration grows linearly with the length of the time series, and all smoothers allow nonlinear process and measurement models. Robust smoothers form an important subclass of smoothers within this framework. These smoothers work in situations where measurements are highly contaminated by noise or include data unexplained by the forward model. Highly robust smoothers are developed by modeling measurement errors using the Student's t distribution, and outperform the recently proposed L1-Laplace smoother in extreme situations with data containing 20% or more outliers. A second special application we consider in detail allows tracking sudden changes in the state. It is developed by modeling process noise using the Student's t distribution, and the resulting smoother can track sudden changes in the state. These features can be used separately or in tandem, and we present a general smoother algorithm and open source implementation, together with convergence analysis that covers a wide range of smoothers. A key ingredient of our approach is a technique to deal with the non-convexity of the Student's t loss function. Numerical results for linear and nonlinear models illustrate the performance of the new smoothers for robust and tracking applications, as well as for mixed problems that have both types of features.


Deep Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then governed by another GP. A single layer model is equivalent to a standard GP or the GP latent variable model (GP-LVM). We perform inference in the model by approximate variational marginalization. This results in a strict lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the model which we use for model selection (number of layers and nodes per layer). Deep belief networks are typically applied to relatively large data sets using stochastic gradient descent for optimization. Our fully Bayesian treatment allows for the application of deep models even when data is scarce. Model selection by our variational bound shows that a five layer hierarchy is justified even when modelling a digit data set containing only 150 examples.


A Hybrid LP-RPG Heuristic for Modelling Numeric Resource Flows in Planning

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Although the use of metric fluents is fundamental to many practical planning problems, the study of heuristics to support fully automated planners working with these fluents remains relatively unexplored. The most widely used heuristic is the relaxation of metric fluents into interval-valued variables --- an idea first proposed a decade ago. Other heuristics depend on domain encodings that supply additional information about fluents, such as capacity constraints or other resource-related annotations. A particular challenge to these approaches is in handling interactions between metric fluents that represent exchange, such as the transformation of quantities of raw materials into quantities of processed goods, or trading of money for materials. The usual relaxation of metric fluents is often very poor in these situations, since it does not recognise that resources, once spent, are no longer available to be spent again. We present a heuristic for numeric planning problems building on the propositional relaxed planning graph, but using a mathematical program for numeric reasoning. We define a class of producer--consumer planning problems and demonstrate how the numeric constraints in these can be modelled in a mixed integer program (MIP). This MIP is then combined with a metric Relaxed Planning Graph (RPG) heuristic to produce an integrated hybrid heuristic. The MIP tracks resource use more accurately than the usual relaxation, but relaxes the ordering of actions, while the RPG captures the causal propositional aspects of the problem. We discuss how these two components interact to produce a single unified heuristic and go on to explore how further numeric features of planning problems can be integrated into the MIP. We show that encoding a limited subset of the propositional problem to augment the MIP can yield more accurate guidance, partly by exploiting structure such as propositional landmarks and propositional resources. Our results show that the use of this heuristic enhances scalability on problems where numeric resource interaction is key in finding a solution.


Game-Initiated Learning: A Case Study For Disaster Education Research In Taiwan

AAAI Conferences

Game-based learning has been proven an effective method to engage students in the class. However, it is very challenging to balance playability and learnability when only developing digital games. Some "playable" games may not carry sufficient knowledge; some "learnable" games may reduce the students' interest and curiosity. In this ongoing research, we proposed an innovative learning method, "game-initiated learning." This method consists of three main steps: game, discussion and self-directedlearning. In this model, students can experience real-world problems from the game, discuss problems they found in the game, and finally, the instructors can deliver related knowledge that is useful to solving the problems previously discussed. To validate the proposed method, we selected a topic of disaster education in Taiwan and experimentally developed a set of course materials including a digital game, animation videos and an e-book. We conducted a review meeting, inviting experts from hydraulic engineering, game development, and disaster mediation as well as schoolteachers and students. The reviewers were asked to play the games and review all course materials. From the feedbacks of the reviewers, we found game-initiated learning an educational method with great potential in providing tacit and explicit knowledge about disaster management.


Symbolic Play and Analogy: a Way to Foster Childrenโ€™s Creativity

AAAI Conferences

The author discusses the relationship between symbolic play, abstract thinking, and divergent and associative thinking based on analogies, and finally connects symbolic play with the creative process. Play and the creative act are seen as similar by definition, since they are characterized as divergent, regulative, expressive and autotelic processes. Symbolic play is not only a product of the animistic and concrete logical way of thinking in childhood but also represents a mode of abstract thinking at the fictional symbolic level, which provides different options important for creativity development. Symbolic play is based on analogies with reality, and in this way reality is transformed in the imagination to be comprehended by the child. This transformation, which takes place in the nest of analogy at the symbolic level, is a key for creative production. Analogies in symbolic play are created through the divergent associative thinking process, also basic for any creative activity. The author has already used play as a tool to enhance creative behavior among young students in primary schools, and currently one project is being implemented in Serbia by the Institute for Educational Research with the intention of promoting initiative, cooperation and creativity by using play among other learning methods.


Analyzing Political Sentiment on Twitter

AAAI Conferences

Due to the vast amount of user-generated content in the emerging Web 2.0, there is a growing need for computational processing of sentiment analysis in documents. Most of the current research in this field is devoted to product reviews from websites. Microblogs and social networks pose even a greater challenge to sentiment classification. However, especially marketing and political campaigns leverage from opinions expressed on Twitter or other social communication platforms. The objects of interest in this paper are the presidential candidates of the Republican Party in the USA and their campaign topics. In this paper we introduce the combination of the noun phrasesโ€™ frequency and their PMI measure as constraint on aspect extraction. This compensates for sparse phrases receiving a higher score than those composed of high-frequency words. Evaluation shows that the meronymy relationship between politicians and their topics holds and improves accuracy of aspect extraction.


Telepresence Robots as a Research Platform for AI

AAAI Conferences

Recently, various commercial telepresence robots have become available to the broader public. Here, we present the telepresence domain as a research platform for (re-)integrating AI. With MITRO: Maastricht Intelligent Telepresence RObot, we built a low-cost working prototype of a robot system specifically designed for augmented and autonomous telepresence. Telepresence robots can be deployed in a wide range of application domains, and augmented presence with assisted control can greatly improve the experience for the user. The research domains that we are focusing on are human robot interaction, navigation and perception.


Separable Dictionary Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many techniques in computer vision, machine learning, and statistics rely on the fact that a signal of interest admits a sparse representation over some dictionary. Dictionaries are either available analytically, or can be learned from a suitable training set. While analytic dictionaries permit to capture the global structure of a signal and allow a fast implementation, learned dictionaries often perform better in applications as they are more adapted to the considered class of signals. In imagery, unfortunately, the numerical burden for (i) learning a dictionary and for (ii) employing the dictionary for reconstruction tasks only allows to deal with relatively small image patches that only capture local image information. The approach presented in this paper aims at overcoming these drawbacks by allowing a separable structure on the dictionary throughout the learning process. On the one hand, this permits larger patch-sizes for the learning phase, on the other hand, the dictionary is applied efficiently in reconstruction tasks. The learning procedure is based on optimizing over a product of spheres which updates the dictionary as a whole, thus enforces basic dictionary properties such as mutual coherence explicitly during the learning procedure. In the special case where no separable structure is enforced, our method competes with state-of-the-art dictionary learning methods like K-SVD.


ARCO1: An Application of Belief Networks to the Oil Market

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underlying belief network models the variables believed to have an impact on the crude oil market. A pictorial market model-developed on a MAC II- facilitates consensus among the members of the forecasting team. The system forecasts crude oil prices via Monte Carlo analyses of the network. Several different models of the oil market have been developed; the system's ability to be updated quickly highlights its flexibility.