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Achieving greater Explanatory Power and Forecasting Accuracy with Non-uniform spread Fuzzy Linear Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fuzzy regression models have been applied to several Operations Research applications viz., forecasting and prediction. Earlier works on fuzzy regression analysis obtain crisp regression coefficients for eliminating the problem of increasing spreads for the estimated fuzzy responses as the magnitude of the independent variable increases. But they cannot deal with the problem of non-uniform spreads. In this work, a three-phase approach is discussed to construct the fuzzy regression model with non-uniform spreads to deal with this problem. The first phase constructs the membership functions of the least-squares estimates of regression coefficients based on extension principle to completely conserve the fuzziness of observations. They are then defuzzified by the centre of area method to obtain crisp regression coefficients in the second phase. Finally, the error terms of the method are determined by setting each estimated spread equal to its corresponding observed spread. The Tagaki-Sugeno inference system is used for improving the accuracy of forecasts. The simulation example demonstrates the strength of fuzzy linear regression model in terms of higher explanatory power and forecasting performance.


Fuzzy Integer Linear Programming Mathematical Models for Examination Timetable Problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ETP is NP Hard combinatorial optimization problem. It has received tremendous research attention during the past few years given its wide use in universities. In this Paper, we develop three mathematical models for NSOU, Kolkata, India using FILP technique. To deal with impreciseness and vagueness we model various allocation variables through fuzzy numbers. The solution to the problem is obtained using Fuzzy number ranking method. Each feasible solution has fuzzy number obtained by Fuzzy objective function. The different FILP technique performance are demonstrated by experimental data generated through extensive simulation from NSOU, Kolkata, India in terms of its execution times. The proposed FILP models are compared with commonly used heuristic viz. ILP approach on experimental data which gives an idea about quality of heuristic. The techniques are also compared with different Artificial Intelligence based heuristics for ETP with respect to best and mean cost as well as execution time measures on Carter benchmark datasets to illustrate its effectiveness. FILP takes an appreciable amount of time to generate satisfactory solution in comparison to other heuristics. The formulation thus serves as good benchmark for other heuristics. The experimental study presented here focuses on producing a methodology that generalizes well over spectrum of techniques that generates significant results for one or more datasets. The performance of FILP model is finally compared to the best results cited in literature for Carter benchmarks to assess its potential. The problem can be further reduced by formulating with lesser number of allocation variables it without affecting optimality of solution obtained. FLIP model for ETP can also be adapted to solve other ETP as well as combinatorial optimization problems.


Discovering Stock Price Prediction Rules of Bombay Stock Exchange Using Rough Fuzzy Multi Layer Perception Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In India financial markets have existed for many years. A functionally accented, diverse, efficient and flexible financial system is vital to the national objective of creating a market driven, productive and competitive economy. Today markets of varying maturity exist in equity, debt, commodities and foreign exchange. In this work we attempt to generate prediction rules scheme for stock price movement at Bombay Stock Exchange using an important Soft Computing paradigm viz., Rough Fuzzy Multi Layer Perception. The use of Computational Intelligence Systems such as Neural Networks, Fuzzy Sets, Genetic Algorithms, etc. for Stock Market Predictions has been widely established. The process is to extract knowledge in the form of rules from daily stock movements. These rules can then be used to guide investors. To increase the efficiency of the prediction process, Rough Sets is used to discretize the data. The methodology uses a Genetic Algorithm to obtain a structured network suitable for both classification and rule extraction. The modular concept, based on divide and conquer strategy, provides accelerated training and a compact network suitable for generating a minimum number of rules with high certainty values. The concept of variable mutation operator is introduced for preserving the localized structure of the constituting Knowledge Based sub-networks, while they are integrated and evolved. Rough Set Dependency Rules are generated directly from the real valued attribute table containing Fuzzy membership values. The paradigm is thus used to develop a rule extraction algorithm. The extracted rules are compared with some of the related rule extraction techniques on the basis of some quantitative performance indices. The proposed methodology extracts rules which are less in number, are accurate, have high certainty factor and have low confusion with less computation time.


Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers for the Transportation Problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transportation Problem is an important problem which has been widely studied in Operations Research domain. It has been often used to simulate different real life problems. In particular, application of this Problem in NP Hard Problems has a remarkable significance. In this Paper, we present the closed, bounded and non empty feasible region of the transportation problem using fuzzy trapezoidal numbers which ensures the existence of an optimal solution to the balanced transportation problem. The multivalued nature of Fuzzy Sets allows handling of uncertainty and vagueness involved in the cost values of each cells in the transportation table. For finding the initial solution of the transportation problem we use the Fuzzy Vogel Approximation Method and for determining the optimality of the obtained solution Fuzzy Modified Distribution Method is used. The fuzzification of the cost of the transportation problem is discussed with the help of a numerical example. Finally, we discuss the computational complexity involved in the problem. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on obtaining the solution of the transportation problem using fuzzy trapezoidal numbers.


A Comparative study of Transportation Problem under Probabilistic and Fuzzy Uncertainties

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transportation Problem is an important aspect which has been widely studied in Operations Research domain. It has been studied to simulate different real life problems. In particular, application of this Problem in NP- Hard Problems has a remarkable significance. In this Paper, we present a comparative study of Transportation Problem through Probabilistic and Fuzzy Uncertainties. Fuzzy Logic is a computational paradigm that generalizes classical two-valued logic for reasoning under uncertainty. In order to achieve this, the notation of membership in a set needs to become a matter of degree. By doing this we accomplish two things viz., (i) ease of describing human knowledge involving vague concepts and (ii) enhanced ability to develop cost-effective solution to real-world problem. The multi-valued nature of Fuzzy Sets allows handling uncertain and vague information. It is a model-less approach and a clever disguise of Probability Theory. We give comparative simulation results of both approaches and discuss the Computational Complexity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on comparative study of Transportation Problem using Probabilistic and Fuzzy Uncertainties.


Ensemble Methods for Multi-label Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ensemble methods have been shown to be an effective tool for solving multi-label classification tasks. In the RAndom k-labELsets (RAKEL) algorithm, each member of the ensemble is associated with a small randomly-selected subset of k labels. Then, a single label classifier is trained according to each combination of elements in the subset. In this paper we adopt a similar approach, however, instead of randomly choosing subsets, we select the minimum required subsets of k labels that cover all labels and meet additional constraints such as coverage of inter-label correlations. Construction of the cover is achieved by formulating the subset selection as a minimum set covering problem (SCP) and solving it by using approximation algorithms. Every cover needs only to be prepared once by offline algorithms. Once prepared, a cover may be applied to the classification of any given multi-label dataset whose properties conform with those of the cover. The contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, we introduce SCP as a general framework for constructing label covers while allowing the user to incorporate cover construction constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework by proposing two construction constraints whose enforcement produces covers that improve the prediction performance of random selection. Second, we provide theoretical bounds that quantify the probabilities of random selection to produce covers that meet the proposed construction criteria. The experimental results indicate that the proposed methods improve multi-label classification accuracy and stability compared with the RAKEL algorithm and to other state-of-the-art algorithms.


Lifting Structural Tractability to CSP with Global Constraints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A wide range of problems can be modelled as constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), that is, a set of constraints that must be satisfied simultaneously. Constraints can either be represented extensionally, by explicitly listing allowed combinations of values, or implicitly, by special-purpose algorithms provided by a solver. Such implicitly represented constraints, known as global constraints, are widely used; indeed, they are one of the key reasons for the success of constraint programming in solving real-world problems. In recent years, a variety of restrictions on the structure of CSP instances that yield tractable classes have been identified. However, many such restrictions fail to guarantee tractability for CSPs with global constraints. In this paper, we investigate the properties of extensionally represented constraints that these restrictions exploit to achieve tractability, and show that there are large classes of global constraints that also possess these properties. This allows us to lift these restrictions to the global case, and identify new tractable classes of CSPs with global constraints.


Learning Compact Visual Descriptors for Low Bit Rate Mobile Landmark Search

AI Magazine

Coming with the ever growing computational power of mobile devices, mobile visual search have undergone an evolution in techniques and applications. A significant trend is low bit rate visual search, where compact visual descriptors are extracted directly over a mobile and delivered as queries rather than raw images to reduce the query transmission latency. In this article, we introduce our work on low bit rate mobile landmark search, in which a compact yet discriminative landmark image descriptor is extracted by using location context such as GPS, crowd-sourced hotspot WLAN, and cell tower locations. The compactness originates from the bag-of-words image representation, with an offline learning from geotagged photos from online photo sharing websites including Flickr and Panoramio. The learning process involves segmenting the landmark photo collection by discrete geographical regions using Gaussian mixture model, and then boosting a ranking sensitive vocabulary within each region, with an “entropy” based descriptor compactness feedback to refine both phases iteratively. In online search, when entering a geographical region, the codebook in a mobile device are downstream adapted to generate extremely compact descriptors with promising discriminative ability. We have deployed landmark search apps to both HTC and iPhone mobile phones, working over the database of million scale images in typical areas like Beijing, New York, and Barcelona, and others. Our descriptor outperforms alternative compact descriptors (Chen et al. 2009; Chen et al., 2010; Chandrasekhar et al. 2009a; Chandrasekhar et al. 2009b) with significant margins. Beyond landmark search, this article will summarize the MPEG standarization progress of compact descriptor for visual search (CDVS) (Yuri et al. 2010; Yuri et al. 2011) towards application interoperability.


AAAI Conferences Calendar

AI Magazine

The Sixth Conference on Artificial held in cooperation with AAAI. Fifth Biannual Humaine Association ICWSM-13 will be held July 8-11, 2013 IJCAI-13 will be held August 3-Conference on Affective Computing at MIT, Cambridge, MA USA 9, 2013 in Beijing, China and Intelligent Interaction. IC3K 2013 will be held on Enterprise Information Systems. September 19-22, 2013 in Vilamoura, ICEIS 2013 will be held July 3-7, 2013 Algarve, Portugal Ninth AAAI Conference on Digital in Angers, France Entertainment. CI 2013 will be held September 20-22, Based Reasoning.


Thinking Fast and Slow: An Approach to Energy-Efficient Human Activity Recognition on Mobile Devices

AI Magazine

According to Daniel Kahneman, there are two systems that drive the human decision making process: The intuitive system that performs the fast thinking, and the deliberative system that does more logical and slower thinking. Inspired by this model, we propose a framework for implementing human activity recognition on mobile devices. In this area, the mobile app is usually always-on and the general challenge is how to balance accuracy and energy consumption. However, among existing approaches, those based on cellular IDs consume little power but are less accurate; those based on GPS/WiFi sampling are accurate often at the costs of battery drainage; moreover, previous methods in general do not improve over time. To address these challenges, our framework consists of two modes: In the deliberation mode, the system learns cell ID patterns that are trained by existing GPS/WiFi based methods; in the intuition mode, only the learned cell ID patterns are used for activity recognition, which is both accurate and energy-efficient; system parameters are learned to control the transition from deliberation to intuition, when sufficient confidence is gained, and the transition from intuition to deliberation, when more training is needed. For the scope of this paper, we first elaborate our framework in a subproblem in activity recognition, trip detection, which recognizes significant places and trips between them. For evaluation, we collected real-life traces of six participants over five months. Our experiments demonstrated consistent results across different participants in terms of accuracy and energy efficiency, and, more importantly, its fast improvement on energy efficiency over time due to regularities in human daily activities.