ABSTRACT There is a large amount of interest in understanding users of social media in order to predict their behavior in this space. Despite this interest, user predictability in social media is not well-understood. To examine this question, we consider a network of fifteen thousand users on Twitter over a seven week period. We apply two contrasting modeling paradigms: computational mechanics and echo state networks. Both methods attempt to model the behavior of users on the basis of their past behavior. We demonstrate that the behavior of users on Twitter can be well-modeled as processes with self-feedback. We find that the two modeling approaches perform very similarly for most users, but that they differ in performance on a small subset of the users. By exploring the properties of these performance-differentiated users, we highlight the challenges faced in applying predictive models to dynamic social data. I INTRODUCTION At the most abstract level, an individual using a social media service may be viewed as a computational agent [1].

Optimization on manifolds is a rapidly developing branch of nonlinear optimization. Its focus is on problems where the smooth geometry of the search space can be leveraged to design efficient numerical algorithms. In particular, optimization on manifolds is well-suited to deal with rank and orthogonality constraints. Such structured constraints appear pervasively in machine learning applications, including low-rank matrix completion, sensor network localization, camera network registration, independent component analysis, metric learning, dimensionality reduction and so on. The Manopt toolbox, available at www.manopt.org, is a user-friendly, documented piece of software dedicated to simplify experimenting with state of the art Riemannian optimization algorithms. We aim particularly at reaching practitioners outside our field.

The measure of distance between two fuzzy sets is a fundamental tool within fuzzy set theory. However, current distance measures within the literature do not account for the direction of change between fuzzy sets; a useful concept in a variety of applications, such as Computing With Words. In this paper, we highlight this utility and introduce a distance measure which takes the direction between sets into account. We provide details of its application for normal and non-normal, as well as convex and non-convex fuzzy sets. We demonstrate the new distance measure using real data from the MovieLens dataset and establish the benefits of measuring the direction between fuzzy sets.

A new family of penalty functions, adaptive to likelihood, is introduced for model selection in general regression models. It arises naturally through assuming certain types of prior distribution on the regression parameters. To study stability properties of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator, two types of asymptotic stability are defined. Theoretical properties, including the parameter estimation consistency, model selection consistency, and asymptotic stability, are established under suitable regularity conditions. An efficient coordinate-descent algorithm is proposed. Simulation results and real data analysis show that the proposed method has competitive performance in comparison with existing ones.

We use partial class memberships in soft classification to model uncertain labelling and mixtures of classes. Partial class memberships are not restricted to predictions, but may also occur in reference labels (ground truth, gold standard diagnosis) for training and validation data. Classifier performance is usually expressed as fractions of the confusion matrix, such as sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values. We extend this concept to soft classification and discuss the bias and variance properties of the extended performance measures. Ambiguity in reference labels translates to differences between best-case, expected and worst-case performance. We show a second set of measures comparing expected and ideal performance which is closely related to regression performance, namely the root mean squared error RMSE and the mean absolute error MAE. All calculations apply to classical crisp classification as well as to soft classification (partial class memberships and/or one-class classifiers). The proposed performance measures allow to test classifiers with actual borderline cases. In addition, hardening of e.g. posterior probabilities into class labels is not necessary, avoiding the corresponding information loss and increase in variance. We implement the proposed performance measures in the R package "softclassval", which is available from CRAN and at http://softclassval.r-forge.r-project.org. Our reasoning as well as the importance of partial memberships for chemometric classification is illustrated by a real-word application: astrocytoma brain tumor tissue grading (80 patients, 37000 spectra) for finding surgical excision borders. As borderline cases are the actual target of the analytical technique, samples which are diagnosed to be borderline cases must be included in the validation.

This paper summarizes efforts to computationally model two transitions in the evolution of human creativity: its origins about two million years ago, and the 'big bang' of creativity about 50,000 years ago. Using a computational model of cultural evolution in which neural network based agents evolve ideas for actions through invention and imitation, we tested the hypothesis that human creativity began with onset of the capacity for recursive recall. We compared runs in which agents were limited to single-step actions to runs in which they used recursive recall to chain simple actions into complex ones. Chaining resulted in higher diversity, open-ended novelty, no ceiling on the mean fitness of actions, and greater ability to make use of learning. Using a computational model of portrait painting, we tested the hypothesis that the explosion of creativity in the Middle/Upper Paleolithic was due to onset of con-textual focus: the capacity to shift between associative and analytic thought. This resulted in faster convergence on portraits that resembled the sitter, employed painterly techniques, and were rated as preferable. We conclude that recursive recall and contextual focus provide a computationally plausible explanation of how humans evolved the means to transform this planet.

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with limit-average payoff, where a reward value in the interval [0,1] is associated to every transition, and the payoff of an infinite path is the long-run average of the rewards. We consider two types of path constraints: (i) quantitative constraint defines the set of paths where the payoff is at least a given threshold {\lambda} in (0, 1]; and (ii) qualitative constraint which is a special case of quantitative constraint with {\lambda} = 1. We consider the computation of the almost-sure winning set, where the controller needs to ensure that the path constraint is satisfied with probability 1. Our main results for qualitative path constraint are as follows: (i) the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is EXPTIME-complete; and (ii) the problem of deciding the existence of an infinite-memory controller is undecidable. For quantitative path constraint we show that the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is undecidable.

Recent work has suggested reducing electricity generation cost by cutting the peak to average ratio (PAR) without reducing the total amount of the loads. However, most of these proposals rely on consumer's willingness to act. In this paper, we propose an approach to cut PAR explicitly from the supply side. The resulting cut loads are then distributed among consumers by the means of a multiunit auction which is done by an intelligent agent on behalf of the consumer. This approach is also in line with the future vision of the smart grid to have the demand side matched with the supply side. Experiments suggest that our approach reduces overall system cost and gives benefit to both consumers and the energy provider.

Two different definitions of the Artificial Intelligence concept have been proposed in papers [1] and [2]. The first definition is informal. It says that any program that is cleverer than a human being, is acknowledged as Artificial Intelligence. The second definition is formal because it avoids reference to the concept of human being. The readers of papers [1] and [2] might be left with the impression that both definitions are equivalent and the definition in [2] is simply a formal version of that in [1]. This paper will compare both definitions of Artificial Intelligence and, hopefully, will bring a better understanding of the concept.

The goal of supervised feature selection is to find a subset of input features that are responsible for predicting output values. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) allows computationally efficient feature selection based on linear dependency between input features and output values. In this paper, we consider a feature-wise kernelized Lasso for capturing non-linear input-output dependency. We first show that, with particular choices of kernel functions, non-redundant features with strong statistical dependence on output values can be found in terms of kernel-based independence measures. We then show that the globally optimal solution can be efficiently computed; this makes the approach scalable to high-dimensional problems. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through feature selection experiments with thousands of features.