Many real-world problem domains generate data in the form of graphs or networks. Examples include social networks (e.g., Facebook), recommendation services (e.g., Netflix or Last.fm), biochemical networks, citation graphs and market analysis. The inferential problem in these settings is often one of link prediction. This problem can be formulated in a static setting where one assumes that a fixed but unknown graph is partially observed, and one wishes to assess whether a pair of nodes that are not known to be linked are in fact linked, given an observed linkage pattern among other nodes. Many real-world graphs are often best modeled, however, as dynamic entities, where links can arise and disappear over time. In the dynamic setting the link prediction problem involves assessing whether two nodes will be linked at time t given the linkage patterns at all previous times. Real-world graphs of current interest are often very large, involving many hundreds of thousands or millions of nodes. The dynamic setting involves sequences of such graphs.

Social media generated by location-services-enabled cellular devices produce enormous amounts of location-based content. Spatiotemporal analysis of such data facilitate new ways of modeling human behavior and mobility patterns. In this paper, we use over 10 millions geo-tagged tweets from the city of Los Angeles as observations of human movement and apply them to understand the relationships of geographical regions, neighborhoods and gang territories. Using a graph based-representation of street gang territories as vertices and interactions between them as edges, we train a machine learning classifier to tell apart rival and non-rival links. We correctly identify 89% of the true rivalry network, which beats a standard baseline by about 30%. Looking at larger neighborhoods, we were able to show that the direction of displacement, i.e, the distribution of movement direction, can be used as a profile to identify physical (or geographic) barriers when it is not uniform. Finally, considering the temporal dimension of tweets, we detect events taking place around the city by identifying irregularities in tweeting patterns.

MetaShare is a knowledge-based system that supports the creation of data management plans and provides the functionality to support researchers as they implement those plans. MetaShare is a community-based, user-driven system that is being designed around the parallels of the scientific data life cycle and the development cycle of knowledge-based systems. MetaShare will provide recommendations and guidance to researchers based on the practices and decisions of similar projects. Using formal knowledge representation in the form of ontologies and rules, the system will be able to generate data collection, dissemination, and management tools to facilitate tasks with respect to using and sharing scientific data. MetaShare, which is initially targeting the research community at the University of Texas at El Paso, is being developed on a Web platform, using Semantic Web technologies. This paper presents a roadmap for the development of MetaShare, justifying the functionality and implementation decisions. In addition, the paper presents an argument concerning the return on investment for researchers and the planned evaluation for the system.

We establish a new framework for statistical estimation of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) when data are generated from a linear, possibly non-Gaussian structural equation model. Our framework consists of two parts: (1) inferring the moralized graph from the support of the inverse covariance matrix; and (2) selecting the best-scoring graph amongst DAGs that are consistent with the moralized graph. We show that when the error variances are known or estimated to close enough precision, the true DAG is the unique minimizer of the score computed using the reweighted squared l_2-loss. Our population-level results have implications for the identifiability of linear SEMs when the error covariances are specified up to a constant multiple. On the statistical side, we establish rigorous conditions for high-dimensional consistency of our two-part algorithm, defined in terms of a "gap" between the true DAG and the next best candidate. Finally, we demonstrate that dynamic programming may be used to select the optimal DAG in linear time when the treewidth of the moralized graph is bounded.

Directed acyclic graphs are the basic representation of the structure underlying Bayesian networks, which represent multivariate probability distributions. In many practical applications, such as the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks, not only the estimation of model parameters but the reconstruction of the structure itself is of great interest. As well as for the assessment of different structure learning algorithms in simulation studies, a uniform sample from the space of directed acyclic graphs is required to evaluate the prevalence of certain structural features. Here we analyse how to sample acyclic digraphs uniformly at random through recursive enumeration, an approach previously thought too computationally involved. Based on complexity considerations, we discuss in particular how the enumeration directly provides an exact method, which avoids the convergence issues of the alternative Markov chain methods and is actually computationally much faster. The limiting behaviour of the distribution of acyclic digraphs then allows us to sample arbitrarily large graphs. Building on the ideas of recursive enumeration based sampling we also introduce a novel hybrid Markov chain with much faster convergence than current alternatives while still being easy to adapt to various restrictions. Finally we discuss how to include such restrictions in the combinatorial enumeration and the new hybrid Markov chain method for efficient uniform sampling of the corresponding graphs.

Belief Propagation has been widely used for marginal inference, however it is slow on problems with large-domain variables and high-order factors. Previous work provides useful approximations to facilitate inference on such models, but lacks important anytime properties such as: 1) providing accurate and consistent marginals when stopped early, 2) improving the approximation when run longer, and 3) converging to the fixed point of BP. To this end, we propose a message passing algorithm that works on sparse (partially instantiated) domains, and converges to consistent marginals using dynamic message scheduling. The algorithm grows the sparse domains incrementally, selecting the next value to add using prioritization schemes based on the gradients of the marginal inference objective. Our experiments demonstrate local anytime consistency and fast convergence, providing significant speedups over BP to obtain low-error marginals: up to 25 times on grid models, and up to 6 times on a real-world natural language processing task.

The Beth definability property, a well-known property from classical logic, is investigated in the context of description logics: if a general L-TBox implicitly defines an L-concept in terms of a given signature, where L is a description logic, then does there always exist over this signature an explicit definition in L for the concept? This property has been studied before and used to optimize reasoning in description logics. In this paper a complete classification of Beth definability is provided for extensions of the basic description logic ALC with transitive roles, inverse roles, role hierarchies, and/or functionality restrictions, both on arbitrary and on finite structures. Moreover, we present a tableau-based algorithm which computes explicit definitions of at most double exponential size. This algorithm is optimal because it is also shown that the smallest explicit definition of an implicitly defined concept may be double exponentially long in the size of the input TBox. Finally, if explicit definitions are allowed to be expressed in first-order logic, then we show how to compute them in single exponential time.

In classical, AGM-style belief change, it is assumed that the underlying logic contains classical propositional logic. This is clearly a limiting assumption, particularly in Artificial Intelligence. Consequently there has been recent interest in studying belief change in approaches where the full expressivity of classical propositional logic is not obtained. In this paper we investigate belief contraction in Horn knowledge bases. We point out that the obvious extension to the Horn case, involving Horn remainder sets as a starting point, is problematic. Not only do Horn remainder sets have undesirable properties, but also some desirable Horn contraction functions are not captured by this approach. For Horn belief set contraction, we develop an account in terms of a model-theoretic characterisation involving weak remainder sets. Maxichoice and partial meet Horn contraction is specified, and we show that the problems arising with earlier work are resolved by these approaches. As well, constructions of the specific operators and sets of postulates are provided, and representation results are obtained. We also examine Horn package contraction, or contraction by a set of formulas. Again, we give a construction and postulate set, linking them via a representation result. Last, we investigate the closely-related notion of forgetting in Horn clauses. This work is arguably interesting since Horn clauses have found widespread use in AI; as well, the results given here may potentially be extended to other areas which make use of Horn-like reasoning, such as logic programming, rule-based systems, and description logics. Finally, since Horn reasoning is weaker than classical reasoning, this work sheds light on the foundations of belief change

Defeasible inheritance networks are a non-monotonic framework that deals with hierarchical knowledge. On the other hand, rational closure is acknowledged as a landmark of the preferential approach to non-monotonic reasoning. We will combine these two approaches and define a new non-monotonic closure operation for propositional knowledge bases that combines the advantages of both. Then we redefine such a procedure for Description Logics (DLs), a family of logics well-suited to model structured information. In both cases we will provide a simple reasoning method that is built on top of the classical entailment relation and, thus, is amenable of an implementation based on existing reasoners. Eventually, we evaluate our approach on well-known landmark test examples.

In this paper, we consider the multivariate Bernoulli distribution as a model to estimate the structure of graphs with binary nodes. This distribution is discussed in the framework of the exponential family, and its statistical properties regarding independence of the nodes are demonstrated. Importantly the model can estimate not only the main effects and pairwise interactions among the nodes but also is capable of modeling higher order interactions, allowing for the existence of complex clique effects. We compare the multivariate Bernoulli model with existing graphical inference models - the Ising model and the multivariate Gaussian model, where only the pairwise interactions are considered. On the other hand, the multivariate Bernoulli distribution has an interesting property in that independence and uncorrelatedness of the component random variables are equivalent. Both the marginal and conditional distributions of a subset of variables in the multivariate Bernoulli distribution still follow the multivariate Bernoulli distribution. Furthermore, the multivariate Bernoulli logistic model is developed under generalized linear model theory by utilizing the canonical link function in order to include covariate information on the nodes, edges and cliques. We also consider variable selection techniques such as LASSO in the logistic model to impose sparsity structure on the graph. Finally, we discuss extending the smoothing spline ANOVA approach to the multivariate Bernoulli logistic model to enable estimation of non-linear effects of the predictor variables.