We propose a mixture of latent trait models with common slope parameters (MCLT) for model-based clustering of high-dimensional binary data, a data type for which few established methods exist. Recent work on clustering of binary data, based on a $d$-dimensional Gaussian latent variable, is extended by incorporating common factor analyzers. Accordingly, our approach facilitates a low-dimensional visual representation of the clusters. We extend the model further by the incorporation of random block effects. The dependencies in each block are taken into account through block-specific parameters that are considered to be random variables. A variational approximation to the likelihood is exploited to derive a fast algorithm for determining the model parameters. Our approach is demonstrated on real and simulated data.

Attributing a cyber-operation through the use of multiple pieces of technical evidence (i.e., malware reverse-engineering and source tracking) and conventional intelligence sources (i.e., human or signals intelligence) is a difficult problem not only due to the effort required to obtain evidence, but the ease with which an adversary can plant false evidence. In this paper, we introduce a formal reasoning system called the InCA (Intelligent Cyber Attribution) framework that is designed to aid an analyst in the attribution of a cyber-operation even when the available information is conflicting and/or uncertain. Our approach combines argumentation-based reasoning, logic programming, and probabilistic models to not only attribute an operation but also explain to the analyst why the system reaches its conclusions.

Induction of common sense knowledge about prototypical sequences of events has recently received much attention (e.g., (Chambers & Jurafsky, 2008; Regneri et al., 2010)). Instead of inducing this knowledge in the form of graphs, as in much of the previous work, in our method, distributed representations of event realizations are computed based on distributed representations of predicates and their arguments, and then these representations are used to predict prototypical event orderings. The parameters of the compositional process for computing the event representations and the ranking component of the model are jointly estimated from texts. We show that this approach results in a substantial boost in ordering performance with respect to previous methods.

We investigate the relation of two fundamental tools in machine learning and signal processing, that is the support vector machine (SVM) for classification, and the Lasso technique used in regression. We show that the resulting optimization problems are equivalent, in the following sense. Given any instance of an $\ell_2$-loss soft-margin (or hard-margin) SVM, we construct a Lasso instance having the same optimal solutions, and vice versa. As a consequence, many existing optimization algorithms for both SVMs and Lasso can also be applied to the respective other problem instances. Also, the equivalence allows for many known theoretical insights for SVM and Lasso to be translated between the two settings. One such implication gives a simple kernelized version of the Lasso, analogous to the kernels used in the SVM setting. Another consequence is that the sparsity of a Lasso solution is equal to the number of support vectors for the corresponding SVM instance, and that one can use screening rules to prune the set of support vectors. Furthermore, we can relate sublinear time algorithms for the two problems, and give a new such algorithm variant for the Lasso. We also study the regularization paths for both methods.

Efficient collaborative decision making is an important challenge for multiagent systems. Finding optimal joint actions is especially challenging when each agent has only imperfect information about the state of its environment. Such problems can be modeled as collaborative Bayesian games in which each agent receives private information in the form of its type. However, representing and solving such games requires space and computation time exponential in the number of agents. This article introduces collaborative graphical Bayesian games (CGBGs), which facilitate more efficient collaborative decision making by decomposing the global payoff function as the sum of local payoff functions that depend on only a few agents. We propose a framework for the efficient solution of CGBGs based on the insight that they posses two different types of independence, which we call agent independence and type independence. In particular, we present a factor graph representation that captures both forms of independence and thus enables efficient solutions. In addition, we show how this representation can provide leverage in sequential tasks by using it to construct a novel method for decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes. Experimental results in both random and benchmark tasks demonstrate the improved scalability of our methods compared to several existing alternatives.

In crowd labeling, a large amount of unlabeled data instances are outsourced to a crowd of workers. Workers will be paid for each label they provide, but the labeling requester usually has only a limited amount of the budget. Since data instances have different levels of labeling difficulty and workers have different reliability, it is desirable to have an optimal policy to allocate the budget among all instance-worker pairs such that the overall labeling accuracy is maximized. We consider categorical labeling tasks and formulate the budget allocation problem as a Bayesian Markov decision process (MDP), which simultaneously conducts learning and decision making. Using the dynamic programming (DP) recurrence, one can obtain the optimal allocation policy. However, DP quickly becomes computationally intractable when the size of the problem increases. To solve this challenge, we propose a computationally efficient approximate policy, called optimistic knowledge gradient policy. Our MDP is a quite general framework, which applies to both pull crowdsourcing marketplaces with homogeneous workers and push marketplaces with heterogeneous workers. It can also incorporate the contextual information of instances when they are available. The experiments on both simulated and real data show that the proposed policy achieves a higher labeling accuracy than other existing policies at the same budget level.

This paper presents the beginnings of an automatic statistician, focusing on regression problems. Our system explores an open-ended space of statistical models to discover a good explanation of a data set, and then produces a detailed report with figures and natural-language text. Our approach treats unknown regression functions nonparametrically using Gaussian processes, which has two important consequences. First, Gaussian processes can model functions in terms of high-level properties (e.g. smoothness, trends, periodicity, changepoints). Taken together with the compositional structure of our language of models this allows us to automatically describe functions in simple terms. Second, the use of flexible nonparametric models and a rich language for composing them in an open-ended manner also results in state-of-the-art extrapolation performance evaluated over 13 real time series data sets from various domains.

The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described precisely. Causal models with design describe the study design and the missing data mechanism together with the causal structure and allow the direct application of causal calculus in the estimation of the causal effects. The flow of the study is visualized by ordering the nodes of the causal diagram in two dimensions by their causal order and the time of the observation. Conclusions whether a causal or observational relationship can be estimated from the collected incomplete data can be made directly from the graph. Causal models with design offer a systematic and unifying view scientific inference and increase the clarity and speed of communication. Examples on the causal models for a case-control study, a nested case-control study, a clinical trial and a two-stage case-cohort study are presented.

The term "CoRE kernel" stands for correlation-resemblance kernel. In many applications (e.g., vision), the data are often high-dimensional, sparse, and non-binary. We propose two types of (nonlinear) CoRE kernels for non-binary sparse data and demonstrate the effectiveness of the new kernels through a classification experiment. CoRE kernels are simple with no tuning parameters. However, training nonlinear kernel SVM can be (very) costly in time and memory and may not be suitable for truly large-scale industrial applications (e.g. search). In order to make the proposed CoRE kernels more practical, we develop basic probabilistic hashing algorithms which transform nonlinear kernels into linear kernels.

Networks are ubiquitous in biology and computational approaches have been largely investigated for their inference. In particular, supervised machine learning methods can be used to complete a partially known network by integrating various measurements. Two main supervised frameworks have been proposed: the local approach, which trains a separate model for each network node, and the global approach, which trains a single model over pairs of nodes. Here, we systematically investigate, theoretically and empirically, the exploitation of tree-based ensemble methods in the context of these two approaches for biological network inference. We first formalize the problem of network inference as classification of pairs, unifying in the process homogeneous and bipartite graphs and discussing two main sampling schemes. We then present the global and the local approaches, extending the later for the prediction of interactions between two unseen network nodes, and discuss their specializations to tree-based ensemble methods, highlighting their interpretability and drawing links with clustering techniques. Extensive computational experiments are carried out with these methods on various biological networks that clearly highlight that these methods are competitive with existing methods.