Common wisdom has it that small distinctions in the probabilities quantifying a Bayesian network do not matter much for the resultsof probabilistic queries. However, one can easily develop realistic scenarios under which small variations in network probabilities can lead to significant changes in computed queries. A pending theoretical question is then to analytically characterize parameter changes that do or do not matter. In this paper, we study the sensitivity of probabilistic queries to changes in network parameters and prove some tight bounds on the impact that such parameters can have on queries. Our analytical results pinpoint some interesting situations under which parameter changes do or do not matter. These results are important for knowledge engineers as they help them identify influential network parameters. They are also important for approximate inference algorithms that preprocessnetwork CPTs to eliminate small distinctions in probabilities.

We introduce the functional mean-shift algorithm, an iterative algorithm for estimating the local modes of a surrogate density from functional data. We show that the algorithm can be used for cluster analysis of functional data. We propose a test based on the bootstrap for the significance of the estimated local modes of the surrogate density. We present two applications of our methodology. In the first application, we demonstrate how the functional mean-shift algorithm can be used to perform spike sorting, i.e. cluster neural activity curves. In the second application, we use the functional mean-shift algorithm to distinguish between original and fake signatures.

Estimation of population covariance matrices from samples of multivariate data has draw many attentions in the last decade owing to its fundamental importance in multivariate analysis. With dramatic advances in technology in recent years, various research fields, such as genetic data, brain imaging, spectroscopic imaging, climate data and so on, have been used to deal with massive highdimensional data sets, whose sample sizes can be very small relative to dimension. In such settings, the standard and the most usual sample covariance matrices often performs poorly [1, 2, 11]. Fortunately, regularization as a class of new methods to estimate covariance matrices has recently emerged to overcome those shortages of using traditional sample covariance matrices. These methods encompass several specified forms, banding [1, 6, 17], tapering [4, 10] and thresholding [2, 5, 8, 16] for instance.

Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs are prohibitive for large-scale problems with arbitrary length and depth. In this contribution, we propose a new approximation technique that may have the potential to achieve sub-cubic time complexity in length and linear time depth, at the cost of some loss of quality. The idea is based on two well-known methods: Gibbs sampling and Rao-Blackwellisation. We provide some simulation-based evaluation of the quality of the RGBS with respect to run time and sequence length.

Recognising human activities using sensors is currently a major challenge in research. Typically, the information extracted directly from sensors is either not discriminative enough or is too noisy to infer activities occurring in the scene. Human activities are complex and evolve dynamically over time. Temporal probabilistic models such as hidden Markov models (HMMs) and dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) have been the dominant models used to solve the problem [1, 4, 19]. However, these models make a strong assumption in the generative process by which the data is generated in the model. This makes the representation of complex sensor data very difficult, and possibly results in large models. Markov networks (MNs) (also known as Markov random fields) offer an alternative approach, especially in form of conditional random fields (CRFs) [10]. In CRFs, the observation is not modelled, and so we have the freedom to incorporate overlapping features, multiple sensor fusion, and long-range dependencies into the model.

Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) [9, 5] have recently attracted an increasing attention for their rich capacity in a variety of learning tasks, including multivariate distribution modelling, feature extraction, classification, and construction of deep architectures [8, 19]. An RBM is a two-layer Markov random field in which the visible layer represents observed variables and the hidden layer represents latent aspects of the data. Pairwise interactions are only permitted for units between layers. As a result, the posterior distribution over the hidden variables and the probability of the data generative model are easy to evaluate, allowing fast feature extraction and efficient sampling-based inference [7]. Nonetheless, most existing work in RBMs implicitly assumes that the visible layer contains variables of the same modality. By far the most popular input types are binary [5] and Gaussian [8]. Recent extension includes categorical [21], ordinal [25], Poisson [6] and Beta [13] data. To the best of our knowledge, none has been considered for multicategorical and category-ranking data, nor for a mixed combination of these data types. In this paper, we investigate a generalisation of the RBM for variables of multiple modalities and types.

A novel framework for consensus clustering is presented which has the ability to determine both the number of clusters and a final solution using multiple algorithms. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from an ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A variety of dimension reduction techniques and clustering algorithms are considered for analysis. For noisy or high-dimensional data, an iterative technique is presented to refine this consensus matrix in way that encourages algorithms to agree upon a common solution. We utilize the theory of nearly uncoupled Markov chains to determine the number, k , of clusters in a dataset by considering a random walk on the graph defined by the consensus matrix. The eigenvalues of the associated transition probability matrix are used to determine the number of clusters. This method succeeds at determining the number of clusters in many datasets where previous methods fail. On every considered dataset, our consensus method provides a final result with accuracy well above the average of the individual algorithms.

We use a cluster ensemble to determine the number of clusters, k, in a group of data. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from the ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A random walk is induced on the graph defined by the consensus matrix and the eigenvalues of the associated transition probability matrix are used to determine the number of clusters. For noisy or high-dimensional data, an iterative technique is presented to refine this consensus matrix in way that encourages a block-diagonal form. It is shown that the resulting consensus matrix is generally superior to existing similarity matrices for this type of spectral analysis.

Learning and understanding the typical patterns in the daily activities and routines of people from low-level sensory data is an important problem in many application domains such as building smart environments, or providing intelligent assistance. Traditional approaches to this problem typically rely on supervised learning and generative models such as the hidden Markov models and its extensions. While activity data can be readily acquired from pervasive sensors, e.g. in smart environments, providing manual labels to support supervised training is often extremely expensive. In this paper, we propose a new approach based on semi-supervised training of partially hidden discriminative models such as the conditional random field (CRF) and the maximum entropy Markov model (MEMM). We show that these models allow us to incorporate both labeled and unlabeled data for learning, and at the same time, provide us with the flexibility and accuracy of the discriminative framework. Our experimental results in the video surveillance domain illustrate that these models can perform better than their generative counterpart, the partially hidden Markov model, even when a substantial amount of labels are unavailable.

This paper proposes an analysis of the effects of consensus and preference aggregation on the consistency of pairwise comparisons. We define some boundary properties for the inconsistency of group preferences and investigate their relation with different inconsistency indices. Some results are presented on more general dependencies between properties of inconsistency indices and the satisfaction of boundary properties. In the end, given three boundary properties and nine indices among the most relevant ones, we will be able to present a complete analysis of what indices satisfy what properties and offer a reflection on the interpretation of the inconsistency of group preferences.