Peak demand for electricity continues to surge around the world. The supply-demand imbalance manifests itself in many forms, from rolling brownouts in California to power cuts in India. It is often suggested that exposing consumers to real-time pricing, will incentivize them to change their usage and mitigate the problem - akin to increasing tolls at peak commute times. We show that risk-averse consumers of electricity react to price fluctuations by scaling back on their total demand, not just their peak demand, leading to the unintended consequence of an overall decrease in production/consumption and reduced economic efficiency. We propose a new scheme that allows homes to move their demands from peak hours in exchange for greater electricity consumption in non-peak hours - akin to how airlines incentivize a passenger to move from an over-booked flight in exchange for, say, two tickets in the future. We present a formal framework for the incentive model that is applicable to different forms of the electricity market. We show that our scheme not only enables increased consumption and consumer social welfare but also allows the distribution company to increase profits. This is achieved by allowing load to be shifted while insulating consumers from real-time price fluctuations. This win-win is important if these methods are to be embraced in practice.

We develop a new approach for a pre-disaster planning problem which consists in computing an optimal investment plan to strengthen a transportation network, given that a future disaster probabilistically destroys links in the network. We show how the problem can be formulated as a non-linear integer program and devise an AI algorithm to solve it. In particular, we introduce a new type of extreme resource constraint and develop a practically efficient propagation algorithm for it. Experiments show several orders of magnitude improvements over existing approaches, allowing us to close an existing real-world benchmark and to solve to optimality other, more challenging benchmarks.

The power output of photovoltaic systems (PVS) increases with the use of effective and efficient solar tracking techniques. However, current techniques suffer from several drawbacks in their tracking policy: (i) they usually do not consider the forecasted or prevailing weather conditions; even when they do, they (ii) rely on complex closed-loop controllers and sophisticated instruments; and (iii) typically, they do not take the energy consumption of the trackers into account. In this paper, we propose a policy iteration method (along with specialized variants), which is able to calculate near-optimal trajectories for effective and efficient day-ahead solar tracking, based on weather forecasts coming from on-line providers. To account for the energy needs of the tracking system, the technique employs a novel and generic consumption model. Our simulations show that the proposed methods can increase the power output of a PVS considerably, when compared to standard solar tracking techniques.

Bike-sharing systems are becoming increasingly prevalent in urban environments. They provide a low-cost, environmentally-friendly transportation alternative for cities. The management of these systems gives rise to many optimization problems. Chief among these problems is the issue of bicycle rebalancing. Users imbalance the system by creating demand in an asymmetric pattern. This necessitates action to put the system back in balance with the requisite levels of bicycles at each station to facilitate future use. In this paper, we tackle the problem of maintaing system balance during peak rush-hour usageas well as rebalancing overnight to prepare the systemfor rush-hour usage. We provide novel problem formulationsthat have been motivated by both a close collaborationwith the New York City bike share (Citibike) and a careful analysisof system usage data. We analyze system data to discover the best placement of bikes tofacilitate usage. We solve routing problems forovernight shifts as well as clustering problems for handlingmid rush-hour usage. The tools developed from this research are currently in daily use at NYC Bike Share LLC, operators of Citibike.

Energy disaggregation, the task of taking a whole home electricity signal and decomposing it into its component appliances, has been proved to be essential in energy conservation research. One powerful cue for breaking down the entire household's energy consumption is user's daily energy usage behavior, which has so far received little attention: existing works on energy disaggregation mostly ignored the relationship between the energy usages of various appliances across different time slots. To model such relationship, we combine topic models with Hawkes processes, and propose a novel probabilistic model based on marked Hawkes process that enables the modeling of marked event data. The proposed model seeks to capture the influence from the occurrence and the marks of one usage event to the occurrence and the marks of subsequent usage events in the future. We also develop an inference algorithm based on variational inference for model parameter estimation. Experimental results on both synthetic data and three real world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, which outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in decomposing the entire consumed energy to each appliance. Analyzing the influence captured by the proposed model provides further insights into numerous interesting energy usage behavior patterns.

We address the problem of power system restoration after a significant blackout. Prior work focus on optimization methods for finding high-quality restoration plans. Optimal solutions consist in a sequence of grid repairs and corresponding steady states. However, such approaches lack formal guarantees on the transient stability of restoration actions, a key property to avoid additional grid damage and cascading failures. In this paper, we show how to integrate transient stability in the optimization procedure by capturing the rotor dynamics of power generators. Our approach reasons about the differential equations describing the dynamics and their underlying transient states. The key contribution lies in modeling and solving optimization problems that return stable generators dispatch minimizing the difference with respect to steady states solutions. Computational efficiency is increased using preprocessing procedures along with traditional reduction techniques. Experimental results on existing benchmarks confirm the feasibility of the new approach.

We introduce a novel method for the continuous online prediction of particulate matter in the air (more specifically, PM10 and PM2.5) given sparse sensor information. A nonparametric model is developed using Gaussian Processes, which eschews the need for an explicit formulation of internal -- and usually very complex -- dependencies between meteorological variables. Instead, it uses historical data to extrapolate pollutant values both spatially (in areas with no sensor information) and temporally (the near future). Each prediction also contains a respective variance, indicating its uncertainty level and thus allowing a probabilistic treatment of results. A novel training methodology (Structural Cross-Validation) is presented, which preserves the spatio-temporal structure of available data during the hyperparameter optimization process. Tests were conducted using a real-time feed from a sensor network in an area of roughly 50x80 km, alongside comparisons with other techniques for air pollution prediction. The promising results motivated the development of a smartphone applicative and a website, currently in use to increase the efficiency of air quality monitoring and control in the area.

Understanding spatio-temporal resource preferences is paramount in the design of policies for sustainable development. Unfortunately, resource preferences are often unknown to policy-makers and have to be inferred from data. In this paper we consider the problem of inferring agents' preferences from observed movement trajectories, and formulate it as an Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) problem . With the goal of informing policy-making, we take a probabilistic approach and consider generative models that can be used to simulate behavior under new circumstances such as changes in resource availability, access policies, or climate. We study the Dynamic Discrete Choice (DDC) models from econometrics and prove that they generalize the Max-Entropy IRL model, a widely used probabilistic approach from the machine learning literature. Furthermore, we develop SPL-GD, a new learning algorithm for DDC models that is considerably faster than the state of the art and scales to very large datasets. We consider an application in the context of pastoralism in the arid and semi-arid regions of Africa, where migratory pastoralists face regular risks due to resource availability, droughts, and resource degradation from climate change and development. We show how our approach based on satellite and survey data can accurately model migratory pastoralism in East Africa and that it considerably outperforms other approaches on a large-scale real-world dataset of pastoralists' movements in Ethiopia collected over 3 years.

Identifying important components or factors in large amounts of noisy data is a key problem in machine learning and data mining. Motivated by a pattern decomposition problem in materials discovery, aimed at discovering new materials for renewable energy, e.g. for fuel and solar cells, we introduce CombiFD, a framework for factor based pattern decomposition that allows the incorporation of a-priori knowledge as constraints, including complex combinatorial constraints. In addition, we propose a new pattern decomposition algorithm, called AMIQO, based on solving a sequence of (mixed-integer) quadratic programs. Our approach considerably outperforms the state of the art on the materials discovery problem, scaling to larger datasets and recovering more precise and physically meaningful decompositions. We also show the effectiveness of our approach for enforcing background knowledge on other application domains.

The preferred treatment for kidney failure is a transplant; however, demand for donor kidneys far outstrips supply. Kidney exchange, an innovation where willing but incompatible patient-donor pairs can exchange organs- — via barter cycles and altruist-initiated chains —provides a life-saving alternative.Typically, fielded exchanges act myopically, considering only the current pool of pairs when planning the cycles and chains. Yet kidney exchange is inherently dynamic, with participants arriving and departing. Also, many planned exchange transplants do not go to surgery due to various failures. So, it is important to consider the future when matching. Motivated by our experience running the computational side of a large nationwide kidney exchange, we present FutureMatch, a framework for learning to match in a general dynamic model. FutureMatch takes as input a high-level objective (e.g., "maximize graft survival of transplants over time'') decided on by experts, then automatically (i) learns based on data how to make this objective concrete and (ii) learns the ``means'' to accomplish this goal — a task, in our experience, that humans handle poorly. It uses data from all live kidney transplants in the US since 1987 to learn the quality of each possible match; it then learns the potentials of elements of the current input graph offline (e.g., potentials of pairs based on features such as donor and patient blood types), translates these to weights, and performs a computationally feasible batch matching that incorporates dynamic, failure-aware considerations through the weights. We validate FutureMatch on real fielded exchange data. It results in higher values of the objective. Furthermore, even under economically inefficient objectives that enforce equity, it yields better solutions for the efficient objective (which does not incorporate equity) than traditional myopic matching that uses the efficiency objective.