Goal Recognition is the task of inferring an actor's goals given some or all of the actor's observed actions. There is considerable interest in Goal Recognition for use in intelligent personal assistants, smart environments, intelligent tutoring systems, and monitoring user's needs. In much of this work, the actor's observed actions are compared against a generated library of plans. Recent work by Ramirez and Geffner makes use of AI planning to determine how closely a sequence of observed actions matches plans for each possible goal. For each goal, this is done by comparing the cost of a plan for that goal with the cost of a plan for that goal that includes the observed actions. This approach yields useful rankings, but is impractical for real-time goal recognition in large domains because of the computational expense of constructing plans for each possible goal. In this paper, we introduce an approach that propagates cost and interaction information in a plan graph, and uses this information to estimate goal probabilities. We show that this approach is much faster, but still yields high quality results.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is the state of the art algorithm for many games including the game of Go and General Game Playing (GGP). The standard algorithm for MCTS is Upper Confidence bounds applied to Trees (UCT). For games such as Go a big improvement over UCT is the Rapid Action Value Estimation (RAVE) heuristic. We propose to generalize the RAVE heuristic so as to have more accurate estimates near the leaves. We test the resulting algorithm named GRAVE for Atarigo, Knighthrough, Domineering and Go.

The problem of finding a minimum vertex cover (MinVC) in a graph is a well known NP-hard problem with important applications. There has been much interest in developing heuristic algorithms for finding a "good" vertex cover in graphs. In practice, most heuristic algorithms for MinVC are based on the local search method. Previously, local search algorithms for MinVC have focused on solving academic benchmarks where the graphs are of relatively small size, and they are not suitable for solving massive graphs as they usually have high-complexity heuristics. In this paper, we propose a simple and fast local search algorithms called FastVC for solving MinVC in massive graphs, which is based on two low-complexity heuristics. Experimental results on a broad range of real world massive graphs show that FastVC finds much better vertex cover (and thus also independent sets) than state of the art local search algorithms for MinVC.

Automatic algorithm configurators are important practical tools for improving program performance measures, such as solution time or prediction accuracy. Local search approaches in particular have proven very effective for tuning algorithms. In sequential local search, the use of predictive models has proven beneficial for obtaining good tuning results. We study the use of non-parametric models in the context of population-based algorithm configurators. We introduce a new model designed specifically for the task of predicting high-performance regions in the parameter space. Moreover, we introduce the ideas of genetic engineering of offspring as well as sexual selection of parents. Numerical results show that model-based genetic algorithms significantly improve our ability to effectively configure algorithms automatically.

Unlike other forms of spamming, it is difficult to collect a large amount of gold-standard labels for reviews Many existing methods on review spam detection by means of manual effort. Thus, most of these methods considering text content merely utilize simple text [Mukherjee et al., 2013; Li et al., 2013a; Sun et al., features such as content similarity. We explore a 2013] just rely on the ad-hoc or pseudo fake or non-fake novel idea of exploiting text generality for improving labels for model training, such as the labels annotated by spam detection. Besides, apart from the task the Amazon anonymous online workers [Ott et al., 2011; of review spam detection, although there have also Li et al., 2014]. On the other hand, some unsupervised been some works on identifying the review spammers methods have been proposed to detect the individual review (users) and the manipulated offerings (items), spammer [Mukherjee et al., 2013; Lim et al., 2010; no previous works have attempted to solve these Wang et al., 2011] and review spammer groups [Mukherjee et three tasks in a unified model. We have proposed al., 2012]. In addition, time series pattern [Xie et al., 2012], a unified probabilistic graphical model to detect rating distribution [Feng et al., 2012], reviewer graph [Wang et the suspicious review spams, the review spammers al., 2011], and reviewing burstiness [Fei et al., 2013] have also and the manipulated offerings in an unsupervised been applied to identify the review spams in an unsupervised manner.

We propose a new Bayesian model for reliable aggregatio of crowdsourced estimates of real-valued quantities in participatory sensing applications. Existing approaches focus on probabilistic modelling of user’s reliability as the key to accurate aggregation. However, these are either limited to estimating discrete quantities, or require a significant number of reports from each user to accurately model their reliability. To mitigate these issues, we adopt a community-based approach, which reduces the data required to reliably aggregate real-valued estimates, by leveraging correlations between the reporting behaviour of users belonging to different communities. As a result, our method is up to 16.6% more accurate than existing state-of-the-art methods and is up to 49% more effective under data sparsity when used to estimate Wi-Fi hotspot locations in a real-world crowdsourcing application.

Differentiation is an important inference method in Bayesian networks and intervention is a basic notion in causal Bayesian networks. In this paper, we reveal the connection between differentiation and intervention in Bayesian networks. We first encode an intervention as changing a conditional probabilistic table into a partial intervention table. We next introduce a jointree algorithm to compute the full atomic interventions of all nodes with respect to evidence in a Bayesian network. We further discover that an intervention has differential semantics if the intervention variables can reach the evidence in Bayesian networks and the output of the state-of-the-art algorithm is not the differentiation but the intervention of a Bayesian network if the differential nodes cannot reach any one of the evidence nodes. Finally, we present experimental results to demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithm to infer the causal effect in Bayesian networks.

Modeling causal dependencies often demands cycles at a coarse-grained temporal scale. If Bayesian networks are to be used for modeling uncertainties, cycles are eliminated with dynamic Bayesian networks, spreading indirect dependencies over time and enforcing an infinitesimal resolution of time. Without a "causal design," i.e., without anticipating indirect influences appropriately in time, we argue that such networks return spurious results. By introducing activator random variables, we propose template fragments for modeling dynamic Bayesian networks under a causal use of time, anticipating indirect influences on a solid mathematical basis, obeying the laws of Bayesian networks.

Marginal MAP is known to be a difficult task for graphical models, particularly because the evaluation of each MAP assignment involves a conditional likelihood computation. In order to minimize the number of likelihood evaluations, we focus in this paper on best-first search strategies for exploring the space of partial MAP assignments. We analyze the potential relative benefits of several best-first search algorithms and demonstrate their effectiveness against recent branch and bound schemes through extensive empirical evaluations. Our results show that best-first search improves significantly over existing depth-first approaches, in many cases by several orders of magnitude, especially when guided by relatively weak heuristics.

The recent surge of interest in reasoning about probabilistic graphical models has led to the development of various techniques for probabilistic reasoning. Of these, techniques based on weighted model counting are particularly interesting since they can potentially leverage recent advances in unweighted model counting and in propositional satisfiability solving. In this paper, we present a new approach to weighted model counting via reduction to unweighted model counting. Our reduction, which is polynomial-time and preserves the normal form (CNF/DNF) of the input formula, allows us to exploit advances in unweighted model counting to solve weighted model counting instances. Experiments with weighted model counters built using our reduction indicate that these counters performs much better than a state-of-the-art weighted model counter