Bart De Moor Dept. of Electrical Engineering, STADIUS KU Leuven & iMinds Medical IT Assessing the performance of a learned model is a crucial part of machine learning. However, in some domains only positive and unlabeled examples are available, which prohibits the use of most standard evaluation metrics. We propose an approach to estimate any metric based on contingency tables, including ROC and PR curves, using only positive and unlabeled data. Estimating these performance metrics is essentially reduced to estimating the fraction of (latent) positives in the unlabeled set, assuming known positives are a random sample of all positives. We provide theoretical bounds on the quality of our estimates, illustrate the importance of estimating the fraction of positives in the unlabeled set and demonstrate empirically that we are able to reliably estimate ROC and PR curves on real data.

A hierarchical gamma process infinite edge partition model is proposed to factorize the binary adjacency matrix of an unweighted undirected relational network under a Bernoulli-Poisson link. The model describes both homophily and stochastic equivalence, and is scalable to big sparse networks by focusing its computation on pairs of linked nodes. It can not only discover overlapping communities and inter-community interactions, but also predict missing edges. A simplified version omitting inter-community interactions is also provided and we reveal its interesting connections to existing models. The number of communities is automatically inferred in a nonparametric Bayesian manner, and efficient inference via Gibbs sampling is derived using novel data augmentation techniques. Experimental results on four real networks demonstrate the models' scalability and state-of-the-art performance.

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the population. In applications, our method provides a data-driven approach to determine which subpopulations have large or small treatment effects and to test hypotheses about the differences in these effects. For experiments, our method allows researchers to identify heterogeneity in treatment effects that was not specified in a pre-analysis plan, without concern about invalidating inference due to multiple testing. In most of the literature on supervised machine learning (e.g. regression trees, random forests, LASSO, etc.), the goal is to build a model of the relationship between a unit's attributes and an observed outcome. A prominent role in these methods is played by cross-validation which compares predictions to actual outcomes in test samples, in order to select the level of complexity of the model that provides the best predictive power. Our method is closely related, but it differs in that it is tailored for predicting causal effects of a treatment rather than a unit's outcome. The challenge is that the "ground truth" for a causal effect is not observed for any individual unit: we observe the unit with the treatment, or without the treatment, but not both at the same time. Thus, it is not obvious how to use cross-validation to determine whether a causal effect has been accurately predicted. We propose several novel cross-validation criteria for this problem and demonstrate through simulations the conditions under which they perform better than standard methods for the problem of causal effects. We then apply the method to a large-scale field experiment re-ranking results on a search engine.

Testing independence is of significant interest in many important areas of large-scale inference. Using extreme-value form statistics to test against sparse alternatives and using quadratic form statistics to test against dense alternatives are two important testing procedures for high-dimensional independence. However, quadratic form statistics suffer from low power against sparse alternatives, and extreme-value form statistics suffer from low power against dense alternatives with small disturbances and may have size distortions due to its slow convergence. For real-world applications, it is important to derive powerful testing procedures against more general alternatives. Based on intermediate limiting distributions, we derive (model-free) joint limiting laws of extreme-value form and quadratic form statistics, and surprisingly, we prove that they are asymptotically independent. Given such asymptotic independencies, we propose (model-free) testing procedures to boost the power against general alternatives and also retain the correct asymptotic size. Under the high-dimensional setting, we derive the closed-form limiting null distributions, and obtain their explicit rates of uniform convergence. We prove their consistent statistical powers against general alternatives. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed test statistics in simulation studies. Our work provides very helpful insights to high-dimensional independence tests, and fills an important gap.

Most recent results in matrix completion assume that the matrix under consideration is low-rank or that the columns are in a union of low-rank subspaces. In real-world settings, however, the linear structure underlying these models is distorted by a (typically unknown) nonlinear transformation. This paper addresses the challenge of matrix completion in the face of such nonlinearities. Given a few observations of a matrix that are obtained by applying a Lipschitz, monotonic function to a low rank matrix, our task is to estimate the remaining unobserved entries. We propose a novel matrix completion method that alternates between low-rank matrix estimation and monotonic function estimation to estimate the missing matrix elements. Mean squared error bounds provide insight into how well the matrix can be estimated based on the size, rank of the matrix and properties of the nonlinear transformation. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the competitiveness of the proposed approach.

In compressed sensing, in order to recover a sparse or nearly sparse vector from possibly noisy measurements, the most popular approach is $\ell_1$-norm minimization. Upper bounds for the $\ell_2$- norm of the error between the true and estimated vectors are given in [1] and reviewed in [2], while bounds for the $\ell_1$-norm are given in [3]. When the unknown vector is not conventionally sparse but is "group sparse" instead, a variety of alternatives to the $\ell_1$-norm have been proposed in the literature, including the group LASSO, sparse group LASSO, and group LASSO with tree structured overlapping groups. However, no error bounds are available for any of these modified objective functions. In the present paper, a unified approach is presented for deriving upper bounds on the error between the true vector and its approximation, based on the notion of decomposable and $\gamma$-decomposable norms. The bounds presented cover all of the norms mentioned above, and also provide a guideline for choosing norms in future to accommodate alternate forms of sparsity.

Tomaso Poggio Center for Brains, Minds and Machines Massachusetts Institute of Technology tp@ai.mit.edu Learning to predict multi-label outputs is challenging, but in many problems there is a natural metric on the outputs that can be used to improve predictions. In this paper we develop a loss function for multi-label learning, based on the Wasserstein distance. The Wasserstein distance provides a natural notion of dissimilarity for probability measures. Although optimizing with respect to the exact Wasserstein distance is costly, recent work has described a regularized approximation that is efficiently computed. We describe an efficient learning algorithm based on this regularization, as well as a novel extension of the Wasserstein distance from probability measures to unnormalized measures. We also describe a statistical learning bound for the loss. The Wasserstein loss can encourage smoothness of the predictions with respect to a chosen metric on the output space. We demonstrate this property on a real-data tag prediction problem, using the Yahoo Flickr Creative Commons dataset, outperforming a baseline that doesn't use the metric.

Decision making is often based on Bayesian networks. The building blocks for Bayesian networks are its conditional probability tables (CPTs). These tables are obtained by parameter estimation methods, or they are elicited from subject matter experts (SME). Some of these knowledge representations are insufficient approximations. Using knowledge fusion of cause and effect observations lead to better predictive decisions. We propose three new methods to generate CPTs, which even work when only soft evidence is provided. The first two are novel ways of mapping conditional expectations to the probability space. The third is a column extraction method, which obtains CPTs from nonlinear functions such as the multinomial logistic regression. Case studies on military effects and burnt forest desertification have demonstrated that so derived CPTs have highly reliable predictive power, including superiority over the CPTs obtained from SMEs. In this context, new quality measures for determining the goodness of a CPT and for comparing CPTs with each other have been introduced. The predictive power and enhanced reliability of decision making based on the novel CPT generation methods presented in this paper have been confirmed and validated within the context of the case studies.

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM) are very useful in the fields of machine learning and data mining. The crucial limitation of those models,however, is the scalability. The Bayesian Network, which is one of the most common PGMs used in machine learning and data mining, demonstrates this limitation when the training data consists of random variables, each of them has a large set of possible values. In the big data era, one would expect new extensions to the existing PGMs to handle the massive amount of data produced these days by computers, sensors and other electronic devices. With hierarchical data - data that is arranged in a treelike structure with several levels - one would expect to see hundreds of thousands or millions of values distributed over even just a small number of levels. When modeling this kind of hierarchical data across large data sets, Bayesian Networks become infeasible for representing the probability distributions. In this paper we introduce an extension to Bayesian Networks to handle massive sets of hierarchical data in a reasonable amount of time and space. The proposed model achieves perfect precision of 1.0 and high recall of 0.93 when it is used as multi-label classifier for the annotation of mass spectrometry data. On another data set of 1.5 billion search logs provided by CareerBuilder.com the model was able to predict latent semantic relationships between search keywords with accuracy up to 0.80.

We introduce a novel approach to Compressed Path Databases, space efficient oracles used to very quickly identify the first edge on a shortest path. Our algorithm achieves query running times on the 100 nanosecond scale, being significantly faster than state-of-the-art first-move oracles from the literature. Space consumption is competitive, due to a compression approach that rearranges rows and columns in a first-move matrix and then performs run length encoding (RLE) on the contents of the matrix. One variant of our implemented system was, by a convincing margin, the fastest entry in the 2014 Grid-Based Path Planning Competition. We give a first tractability analysis for the compression scheme used by our algorithm. We study the complexity of computing a database of minimum size for general directed and undirected graphs. We find that in both cases the problem is NP-complete. We also show that, for graphs which can be decomposed along articulation points, the problem can be decomposed into independent parts, with a corresponding reduction in its level of difficulty. In particular, this leads to simple and tractable algorithms with linear running time which yield optimal compression results for trees.