The paper presents an application of non-linear stacking ensembles for prediction of Go player attributes. An evolutionary algorithm is used to form a diverse ensemble of base learners, which are then aggregated by a stacking ensemble. This methodology allows for an efficient prediction of different attributes of Go players from sets of their games. These attributes can be fairly general, in this work, we used the strength and style of the players.

We study a novel machine learning (ML) problem setting of sequentially allocating small subsets of training data amongst a large set of classifiers. The goal is to select a classifier that will give near-optimal accuracy when trained on all data, while also minimizing the cost of misallocated samples. This is motivated by large modern datasets and ML toolkits with many combinations of learning algorithms and hyper-parameters. Inspired by the principle of "optimism under uncertainty," we propose an innovative strategy, Data Allocation using Upper Bounds (DAUB), which robustly achieves these objectives across a variety of real-world datasets. We further develop substantial theoretical support for DAUB in an idealized setting where the expected accuracy of a classifier trained on $n$ samples can be known exactly. Under these conditions we establish a rigorous sub-linear bound on the regret of the approach (in terms of misallocated data), as well as a rigorous bound on suboptimality of the selected classifier. Our accuracy estimates using real-world datasets only entail mild violations of the theoretical scenario, suggesting that the practical behavior of DAUB is likely to approach the idealized behavior.

The rise of Big Data has led to new demands for Machine Learning (ML) systems to learn complex models with millions to billions of parameters, that promise adequate capacity to digest massive datasets and offer powerful predictive analytics thereupon. In order to run ML algorithms at such scales, on a distributed cluster with 10s to 1000s of machines, it is often the case that significant engineering efforts are required --- and one might fairly ask if such engineering truly falls within the domain of ML research or not. Taking the view that Big ML systems can benefit greatly from ML-rooted statistical and algorithmic insights --- and that ML researchers should therefore not shy away from such systems design --- we discuss a series of principles and strategies distilled from our recent efforts on industrial-scale ML solutions. These principles and strategies span a continuum from application, to engineering, and to theoretical research and development of Big ML systems and architectures, with the goal of understanding how to make them efficient, generally-applicable, and supported with convergence and scaling guarantees. They concern four key questions which traditionally receive little attention in ML research: How to distribute an ML program over a cluster? How to bridge ML computation with inter-machine communication? How to perform such communication? What should be communicated between machines? By exposing underlying statistical and algorithmic characteristics unique to ML programs but not typically seen in traditional computer programs, and by dissecting successful cases to reveal how we have harnessed these principles to design and develop both high-performance distributed ML software as well as general-purpose ML frameworks, we present opportunities for ML researchers and practitioners to further shape and grow the area that lies between ML and systems.

We propose a new integer-linear programming model for the delete relaxation in cost-optimal planning. While a straightforward IP for the delete relaxation is impractical, our enhanced model incorporates variable reduction techniques based on landmarks, relevance-based constraints, dominated action elimination, immediate action application, and inverse action constraints, resulting in an IP that can be used to directly solve delete-free planning problems. We show that our IP model is competitive with previous state-of-the-art solvers for delete-free problems. The LP-relaxation of the IP model is often a very good approximation to the IP, providing an approach to approximating the optimal value of the delete-free task that is complementary to the well-known LM-cut heuristic. We also show that constraints that partially consider delete effects can be added to our IP/LP models. We embed the new IP/LP models into a forward-search based planner, and show that the performance of the resulting planner on standard IPC benchmarks is comparable with the state-of-the-art for cost-optimal planning.

The BusPlus project aims at improving the off-peak hours public transit service in Canberra, Australia. To address the difficulty of covering a large geographic area, BusPlus proposes a hub and shuttle model consisting of a combination of a few high-frequency bus routes between key hubs and a large number of shuttles that bring passengers from their origin to the closest hub and take them from their last bus stop to their destination. This paper focuses on the design of bus network and proposes an efficient solving method to this multimodal network design problem based on the Benders decomposition method. Starting from a MIP formulation of the problem, the paper presents a Benders decomposition approach using dedicated solution techniques for solving independent sub-problems, Pareto optimal cuts, cut bundling, and core point update. Computational results on real-world data from Canberra's public transit system justify the design choices and show that the approach outperforms the MIP formulation by two orders of magnitude. Moreover, the results show that the hub and shuttle model may decrease transit time by a factor of 2, while staying within the costs of the existing transit system.

A gamma process dynamic Poisson factor analysis model is proposed to factorize a dynamic count matrix, whose columns are sequentially observed count vectors. The model builds a novel Markov chain that sends the latent gamma random variables at time $(t-1)$ as the shape parameters of those at time $t$, which are linked to observed or latent counts under the Poisson likelihood. The significant challenge of inferring the gamma shape parameters is fully addressed, using unique data augmentation and marginalization techniques for the negative binomial distribution. The same nonparametric Bayesian model also applies to the factorization of a dynamic binary matrix, via a Bernoulli-Poisson link that connects a binary observation to a latent count, with closed-form conditional posteriors for the latent counts and efficient computation for sparse observations. We apply the model to text and music analysis, with state-of-the-art results.

Graphical model has been widely used to investigate the complex dependence structure of high-dimensional data, and it is common to assume that observed data follow a homogeneous graphical model. However, observations usually come from different resources and have heterogeneous hidden commonality in real-world applications. Thus, it is of great importance to estimate heterogeneous dependencies and discover subpopulation with certain commonality across the whole population. In this work, we introduce a novel regularized estimation scheme for learning nonparametric mixture of Gaussian graphical models, which extends the methodology and applicability of Gaussian graphical models and mixture models. We propose a unified penalized likelihood approach to effectively estimate nonparametric functional parameters and heterogeneous graphical parameters. We further design an efficient generalized effective EM algorithm to address three significant challenges: high-dimensionality, non-convexity, and label switching. Theoretically, we study both the algorithmic convergence of our proposed algorithm and the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimators. Numerically, we demonstrate the performance of our method in simulation studies and a real application to estimate human brain functional connectivity from ADHD imaging data, where two heterogeneous conditional dependencies are explained through profiling demographic variables and supported by existing scientific findings.

We consider effort allocation in crowdsourcing, where we wish to assign labeling tasks to imperfect homogeneous crowd workers to maximize overall accuracy in a continuous-time Bayesian setting, subject to budget and time constraints. The Bayes-optimal policy for this problem is the solution to a partially observable Markov decision process, but the curse of dimensionality renders the computation infeasible. Based on the Lagrangian Relaxation technique in Adelman & Mersereau (2008), we provide a computationally tractable instance-specific upper bound on the value of this Bayes-optimal policy, which can in turn be used to bound the optimality gap of any other sub-optimal policy. In an approach similar in spirit to the Whittle index for restless multiarmed bandits, we provide an index policy for effort allocation in crowdsourcing and demonstrate numerically that it outperforms other stateof- arts and performs close to optimal solution.

We study the fundamental tradeoffs between computational tractability and statistical accuracy for a general family of hypothesis testing problems with combinatorial structures. Based upon an oracle model of computation, which captures the interactions between algorithms and data, we establish a general lower bound that explicitly connects the minimum testing risk under computational budget constraints with the intrinsic probabilistic and combinatorial structures of statistical problems. This lower bound mirrors the classical statistical lower bound by Le Cam (1986) and allows us to quantify the optimal statistical performance achievable given limited computational budgets in a systematic fashion. Under this unified framework, we sharply characterize the statistical-computational phase transition for two testing problems, namely, normal mean detection and sparse principal component detection. For normal mean detection, we consider two combinatorial structures, namely, sparse set and perfect matching. For these problems we identify significant gaps between the optimal statistical accuracy that is achievable under computational tractability constraints and the classical statistical lower bounds. Compared with existing works on computational lower bounds for statistical problems, which consider general polynomial-time algorithms on Turing machines, and rely on computational hardness hypotheses on problems like planted clique detection, we focus on the oracle computational model, which covers a broad range of popular algorithms, and do not rely on unproven hypotheses. Moreover, our result provides an intuitive and concrete interpretation for the intrinsic computational intractability of high-dimensional statistical problems. One byproduct of our result is a lower bound for a strict generalization of the matrix permanent problem, which is of independent interest.

To infer a multilayer representation of high-dimensional count vectors, we propose the Poisson gamma belief network (PGBN) that factorizes each of its layers into the product of a connection weight matrix and the nonnegative real hidden units of the next layer. The PGBN's hidden layers are jointly trained with an upward-downward Gibbs sampler, each iteration of which upward samples Dirichlet distributed connection weight vectors starting from the first layer (bottom data layer), and then downward samples gamma distributed hidden units starting from the top hidden layer. The gamma-negative binomial process combined with a layer-wise training strategy allows the PGBN to infer the width of each layer given a fixed budget on the width of the first layer. The PGBN with a single hidden layer reduces to Poisson factor analysis. Example results on text analysis illustrate interesting relationships between the width of the first layer and the inferred network structure, and demonstrate that the PGBN, whose hidden units are imposed with correlated gamma priors, can add more layers to increase its performance gains over Poisson factor analysis, given the same limit on the width of the first layer.