The Multi-Armed Bandit problem constitutes an archetypal setting for sequential decision-making, permeating multiple domains including engineering, business, and medicine. One of the hallmarks of a bandit setting is the agent's capacity to explore its environment through active intervention, which contrasts with the ability to collect passive data by estimating associational relationships between actions and payouts. The existence of unobserved confounders, namely unmeasured variables affecting both the action and the outcome variables, implies that these two data-collection modes will in general not coincide. In this paper, we show that formalizing this distinction has conceptual and algorithmic implications to the bandit setting. The current generation of bandit algorithms implicitly try to maximize rewards based on estimation of the experimental distribution, which we show is not always the best strategy to pursue. Indeed, to achieve low regret in certain realistic classes of bandit problems (namely, in the face of unobserved confounders), both experimental and observational quantities are required by the rational agent. After this realization, we propose an optimization metric (employing both experimental and observational distributions) that bandit agents should pursue, and illustrate its benefits over traditional algorithms.

The completion of low rank matrices from few entries is a task with many practical applications. We consider here two aspects of this problem: detectability, i.e. the ability to estimate the rank r reliably from the fewest possible random entries, and performance in achieving small reconstruction error. We propose a spectral algorithm for these two tasks called MaCBetH (for Matrix Completion with the Bethe Hessian). The rank is estimated as the number of negative eigenvalues of the Bethe Hessian matrix, and the corresponding eigenvectors are used as initial condition for the minimization of the discrepancy between the estimated matrix and the revealed entries. We analyze the performance in a random matrix setting using results from the statistical mechanics of the Hopfield neural network, and show in particular that MaCBetH efficiently detects the rank r of a large n m matrix from C(r)r nmentries, where C(r) is a constant close to 1. We also evaluate the corresponding root-mean-square error empirically and show that MaCBetH compares favorably to other existing approaches. Matrix completion is the task of inferring the missing entries of a matrix given a subset of known entries. Typically, this is possible because the matrix to be completed has (at least approximately) low rank r. This problem has witnessed a burst of activity, see e.g.

The stochastic block model (SBM) has recently gathered significant attention due to new threshold phenomena. However, most developments rely on the knowledge of the model parameters, or at least on the number of communities. This paper introduces efficient algorithms that do not require such knowledge and yet achieve the optimal information-theoretic tradeoffs identified in Abbe-Sandon FOCS15. In the constant degree regime, an algorithm is developed that requires only a lower-bound on the relative sizes of the communities and achieves the optimal accuracy scaling for large degrees. This lower-bound requirement is removed for the regime of arbitrarily slowly diverging degrees, and the model parameters are learned efficiently. For the logarithmic degree regime, this is further enhanced into a fully agnostic algorithm that achieves the CH-limit for exact recovery in quasi-linear time. These provide the first algorithms affording efficiency, universality and information-theoretic optimality for strong and weak consistency in the SBM.

In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to integrate both types of models. Methods such as posterior regularization follow the idea of generalized moment matching, in that they allow matchingexpectations between two models, but sometimes both models are most conveniently expressed as latent variable models. We propose latent Bayesian melding, which is motivated by averaging the distributions over populations statistics of both the individual-level and the population-level models under a logarithmic opinion pool framework. In a case study on electricity disaggregation, which is a type of single-channel blind source separation problem, we show that latent Bayesian melding leads to significantly more accurate predictions than an approach based solely on generalized moment matching.

We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the dependency that is not captured by the original variational distribution, and thus the augmented variational family guarantees better approximations to the posterior. With stochastic optimization, inference on the augmented distribution is scalable. Furthermore, our strategy is generic: it can be applied to any inference procedure that currently uses the mean-field or structured approach. Copula variational inference has many advantages: it reduces bias; it is less sensitive to local optima; it is less sensitive to hyperparameters; and it helps characterize and interpret the dependency among the latent variables.

Stochastic search algorithms are general black-box optimizers. Due to their ease of use and their generality, they have recently also gained a lot of attention in operations research, machine learning and policy search. Yet, these algorithms require a lot of evaluations of the objective, scale poorly with the problem dimension, are affected by highly noisy objective functions and may converge prematurely. To alleviate these problems, we introduce a new surrogate-based stochastic search approach. We learn simple, quadratic surrogate models of the objective function. As the quality of such a quadratic approximation is limited, we do not greedily exploit the learned models. The algorithm can be misled by an inaccurate optimum introduced by the surrogate. Instead, we use information theoretic constraints to bound the `distance' between the new and old data distribution while maximizing the objective function. Additionally the new method is able to sustain the exploration of the search distribution to avoid premature convergence. We compare our method with state of art black-box optimization methods on standard uni-modal and multi-modal optimization functions, on simulated planar robot tasks and a complex robot ball throwing task.The proposed method considerably outperforms the existing approaches.

In a variety of problems originating in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, the loss function is defined by an expectation over a collection of random variables, which might be part of a probabilistic model or the external world. Estimating the gradient of this loss function, using samples, lies at the core of gradient-based learning algorithms for these problems. We introduce the formalism of stochastic computation graphs--directed acyclic graphs that include both deterministic functions and conditional probability distributions and describe how to easily and automatically derive an unbiased estimator of the loss function's gradient. The resulting algorithm for computing the gradient estimator is a simple modification of the standard backpropagation algorithm. The generic scheme we propose unifies estimators derived in variety of prior work, along with variance-reduction techniques therein. It could assist researchers in developing intricate models involving a combination of stochastic and deterministic operations, enabling, for example, attention, memory, and control actions.

In user-facing applications, displaying calibrated confidence measures---probabilities that correspond to true frequency---can be as important as obtaining high accuracy. We are interested in calibration for structured prediction problems such as speech recognition, optical character recognition, and medical diagnosis. Structured prediction presents new challenges for calibration: the output space is large, and users may issue many types of probability queries (e.g., marginals) on the structured output. We extend the notion of calibration so as to handle various subtleties pertaining to the structured setting, and then provide a simple recalibration method that trains a binary classifier to predict probabilities of interest. We explore a range of features appropriate for structured recalibration, and demonstrate their efficacy on three real-world datasets.

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an “on-the-job” setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction when confident. As the model improves over time, the reliance on crowdsourcing queries decreases. We cast our setting as a stochastic game based on Bayesian decision theory, which allows us to balance latency, cost, and accuracy objectives in a principled way. Computing the optimal policy is intractable, so we develop an approximation based on Monte Carlo Tree Search. We tested our approach on three datasets-- named-entity recognition, sentiment classification, and image classification. On the NER task we obtained more than an order of magnitude reduction in cost compared to full human annotation, while boosting performance relative to the expert provided labels. We also achieve a 8% F1 improvement over having a single human label the whole set, and a 28% F1 improvement over online learning.

Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cases, we expect some form of dependency between the draws: the nucleotide at one position in the DNA strand may depend on the preceding nucleotides, children's names are highly correlated from year to year, and topics in text may be correlated and dynamic. These dependencies are not naturally captured by the typical Dirichlet-multinomial formulation. Here, we leverage a logistic stick-breaking representation and recent innovations in P\'{o}lya-gamma augmentation to reformulate the multinomial distribution in terms of latent variables with jointly Gaussian likelihoods, enabling us to take advantage of a host of Bayesian inference techniques for Gaussian models with minimal overhead.