We present a unified framework for learning continuous control policies usingbackpropagation. It supports stochastic control by treating stochasticity in theBellman equation as a deterministic function of exogenous noise. The productis a spectrum of general policy gradient algorithms that range from model-freemethods with value functions to model-based methods without value functions.We use learned models but only require observations from the environment insteadof observations from model-predicted trajectories, minimizing the impactof compounded model errors. We apply these algorithms first to a toy stochasticcontrol problem and then to several physics-based control problems in simulation.One of these variants, SVG(1), shows the effectiveness of learning models, valuefunctions, and policies simultaneously in continuous domains.

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a popular model for blind signal separation. The ICA model assumes that a number of independent source signals are linearly mixed to form the observed signals. We propose a new algorithm, PEGI (for pseudo-Euclidean Gradient Iteration), for provable model recovery for ICA with Gaussian noise. The main technical innovation of the algorithm is to use a fixed point iteration in a pseudo-Euclidean (indefinite “inner product”) space. The use of this indefinite “inner product” resolves technical issues common to several existing algorithms for noisy ICA. This leads to an algorithm which is conceptually simple, efficient and accurate in testing.Our second contribution is combining PEGI with the analysis of objectives for optimal recovery in the noisy ICA model. It has been observed that the direct approach of demixing with the inverse of the mixing matrix is suboptimal for signal recovery in terms of the natural Signal to Interference plus Noise Ratio (SINR) criterion. There have been several partial solutions proposed in the ICA literature. It turns out that any solution to the mixing matrix reconstruction problem can be used to construct an SINR-optimal ICA demixing, despite the fact that SINR itself cannot be computed from data. That allows us to obtain a practical and provably SINR-optimal recovery method for ICA with arbitrary Gaussian noise.

We introduce Embed to Control (E2C), a method for model learning and control of non-linear dynamical systems from raw pixel images. E2C consists of a deep generative model, belonging to the family of variational autoencoders, that learns to generate image trajectories from a latent space in which the dynamics is constrained to be locally linear. Our model is derived directly from an optimal control formulation in latent space, supports long-term prediction of image sequences and exhibits strong performance on a variety of complex control problems.

Super-resolution is the problem of recovering a superposition of point sources using bandlimited measurements, which may be corrupted with noise. This signal processing problem arises in numerous imaging problems, ranging from astronomy to biology to spectroscopy, where it is common to take (coarse) Fourier measurements of an object. Of particular interest is in obtaining estimation procedures which are robust to noise, with the following desirable statistical and computational properties: we seek to use coarse Fourier measurements (bounded by some \emph{cutoff frequency}); we hope to take a (quantifiably) small number of measurements; we desire our algorithm to run quickly. Suppose we have $k$ point sources in $d$ dimensions, where the points are separated by at least $\Delta$ from each other (in Euclidean distance). This work provides an algorithm with the following favorable guarantees:1. The algorithm uses Fourier measurements, whose frequencies are bounded by $O(1/\Delta)$ (up to log factors). Previous algorithms require a \emph{cutoff frequency} which may be as large as $\Omega(\sqrt{d}/\Delta)$.2. The number of measurements taken by and the computational complexity of our algorithm are bounded by a polynomial in both the number of points $k$ and the dimension $d$, with \emph{no} dependence on the separation $\Delta$. In contrast, previous algorithms depended inverse polynomially on the minimal separation and exponentially on the dimension for both of these quantities.Our estimation procedure itself is simple: we take random bandlimited measurements (as opposed to taking an exponential number of measurements on the hyper-grid). Furthermore, our analysis and algorithm are elementary (based on concentration bounds of sampling and singular value decomposition).

We consider an adversarial formulation of the problem ofpredicting a time series with square loss. The aim is to predictan arbitrary sequence of vectors almost as well as the bestsmooth comparator sequence in retrospect. Our approach allowsnatural measures of smoothness such as the squared norm ofincrements. More generally, we consider a linear time seriesmodel and penalize the comparator sequence through the energy ofthe implied driving noise terms. We derive the minimax strategyfor all problems of this type and show that it can be implementedefficiently. The optimal predictions are linear in the previousobservations. We obtain an explicit expression for the regret interms of the parameters defining the problem. For typical,simple definitions of smoothness, the computation of the optimalpredictions involves only sparse matrices. In the case ofnorm-constrained data, where the smoothness is defined in termsof the squared norm of the comparator's increments, we show thatthe regret grows as $T/\sqrt{\lambda_T}$, where $T$ is the lengthof the game and $\lambda_T$ is an increasing limit on comparatorsmoothness.

Machine learning offers a fantastically powerful toolkit for building useful complex predictionsystems quickly. This paper argues it is dangerous to think of these quick wins as coming for free. Using the software engineering framework of technical debt, we find it is common to incur massive ongoing maintenance costs in real-world ML systems. We explore several MLspecific risk factors to account for in system design. These include boundary erosion, entanglement, hidden feedback loops, undeclared consumers, data dependencies, configuration issues, changes in the external world, and a variety of system-level anti-patterns.

Learning the structure of a probabilistic graphical models is a well studied problem in the machine learning community due to its importance in many applications. Current approaches are mainly focused on learning the structure under restrictive parametric assumptions, which limits the applicability of these methods. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the structure of a probabilistic graphical model without assuming a particular parametric model. We consider probabilities that are members of an infinite dimensional exponential family, which is parametrized by a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) H and its kernel $k$. One difficulty in learning nonparametric densities is evaluation of the normalizing constant. In order to avoid this issue, our procedure minimizes the penalized score matching objective. We show how to efficiently minimize the proposed objective using existing group lasso solvers. Furthermore, we prove that our procedure recovers the graph structure with high-probability under mild conditions. Simulation studies illustrate ability of our procedure to recover the true graph structure without the knowledge of the data generating process.

Estimating distributions over large alphabets is a fundamental machine-learning tenet. Yet no method is known to estimate all distributions well. For example, add-constant estimators are nearly min-max optimal but often perform poorly in practice, and practical estimators such as absolute discounting, Jelinek-Mercer, and Good-Turing are not known to be near optimal for essentially any distribution.We describe the first universally near-optimal probability estimators. For every discrete distribution, they are provably nearly the best in the following two competitive ways. First they estimate every distribution nearly as well as the best estimator designed with prior knowledge of the distribution up to a permutation. Second, they estimate every distribution nearly as well as the best estimator designed with prior knowledge of the exact distribution, but as all natural estimators, restricted to assign the same probability to all symbols appearing the same number of times.Specifically, for distributions over $k$ symbols and $n$ samples, we show that for both comparisons, a simple variant of Good-Turing estimator is always within KL divergence of $(3+o(1))/n^{1/3}$ from the best estimator, and that a more involved estimator is within $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\min(k/n,1/\sqrt n))$. Conversely, we show that any estimator must have a KL divergence $\ge\tilde\Omega(\min(k/n,1/ n^{2/3}))$ over the best estimator for the first comparison, and $\ge\tilde\Omega(\min(k/n,1/\sqrt{n}))$ for the second.

This paper studies the generalization performance of multi-class classification algorithms, for which we obtain, for the first time, a data-dependent generalization error bound with a logarithmic dependence on the class size, substantially improving the state-of-the-art linear dependence in the existing data-dependent generalization analysis. The theoretical analysis motivates us to introduce a new multi-class classification machine based on lp-norm regularization, where the parameter p controls the complexity of the corresponding bounds. We derive an efficient optimization algorithm based on Fenchel duality theory. Benchmarks on several real-world datasets show that the proposed algorithm can achieve significant accuracy gains over the state of the art.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics.We propose a temporal point process model, COEVOLVE, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.