Hellebore Capital Management † Ecole Polytechnique ABSTRACT This paper presents a new methodology for clustering multivariate time series leveraging optimal transport between copulas. Copulas are used to encode both (i) intra-dependence of a multivariate time series, and (ii) interdependence between two time series. Then, optimal copula transport allows us to define two distances between multivariate time series: (i) one for measuring intra-dependence dissimilarity, (ii) another one for measuring interdependence dissimilarity based on a new multivariate dependence coefficient which is robust to noise, deterministic, and which can target specified dependencies. Index Terms-- Clustering; Multivariate Time Series; Optimal Transport; Earth Mover's Distance; Empirical Copula; Dependence Coefficient 1. INTRODUCTION Clustering is the task of grouping a set of objects in such a way that objects in the same group, also called cluster, are more similar to each other than those in different groups. This primitive in unsupervised machine learning is known to be hard to formalize and hard to solve.

In this paper we present a connection between two dynamical systems arising in entirely different contexts: one in signal processing and the other in biology. The first is the famous Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (IRLS) algorithm used in compressed sensing and sparse recovery while the second is the dynamics of a slime mold (Physarum polycephalum). Both of these dynamics are geared towards finding a minimum l1-norm solution in an affine subspace. Despite its simplicity the convergence of the IRLS method has been shown only for a certain regularization of it and remains an important open problem. Our first result shows that the two dynamics are projections of the same dynamical system in higher dimensions. As a consequence, and building on the recent work on Physarum dynamics, we are able to prove convergence and obtain complexity bounds for a damped version of the IRLS algorithm.

Training neural networks is a challenging non-convex optimization problem, and backpropagation or gradient descent can get stuck in spurious local optima. We propose a novel algorithm based on tensor decomposition for guaranteed training of two-layer neural networks. We provide risk bounds for our proposed method, with a polynomial sample complexity in the relevant parameters, such as input dimension and number of neurons. While learning arbitrary target functions is NP-hard, we provide transparent conditions on the function and the input for learnability. Our training method is based on tensor decomposition, which provably converges to the global optimum, under a set of mild non-degeneracy conditions. It consists of simple embarrassingly parallel linear and multi-linear operations, and is competitive with standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD), in terms of computational complexity. Thus, we propose a computationally efficient method with guaranteed risk bounds for training neural networks with one hidden layer.

Acts of prevention and fight against money laundering (ML) crimes are prioritized by almost every government in the world, at the same level of the most relevant global issues. Money laundering is a crime that typically consists in making a certain illegal financial gain into a legal gain. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes (UNODC) the annual global estimate of laundered money is about 2% - 5% of the Gross World Product, or US$800 billion - US$2 trillion [1]. As if the financial volume were not enough, another reason for governments to focus on this crime is for the fact that it is clearly connected to other types of crimes such as illegal drug trade, fraud, corruption, kidnapping, terrorism, arms smuggling, among others. Most countries' financial authorities, usually Central Banks, are responsible for controlling and defining antimoney laundering (AML) regulations, demanding from financial institutions the implementation of procedures that apply the defined norms.

Conjugate pairs of distributions over infinite dimensional spaces are prominent in statistical learning theory, particularly due to the widespread adoption of Bayesian nonparametric methodologies for a host of models and applications. Much of the existing literature in the learning community focuses on processes possessing some form of computationally tractable conjugacy as is the case for the beta and gamma processes (and, via normalization, the Dirichlet process). For these processes, proofs of conjugacy and requisite derivation of explicit computational formulae for posterior density parameters are idiosyncratic to the stochastic process in question. As such, Bayesian Nonparametric models are currently available for a limited number of conjugate pairs, e.g. the Dirichlet-multinomial and beta-Bernoulli process pairs. In each of these above cases the likelihood process belongs to the class of discrete exponential family distributions. The exclusion of continuous likelihood distributions from the known cases of Bayesian Nonparametric Conjugate models stands as a disparity in the researcher's toolbox. In this paper we first address the problem of obtaining a general construction of prior distributions over infinite dimensional spaces possessing distributional properties amenable to conjugacy. Second, we bridge the divide between the discrete and continuous likelihoods by illustrating a canonical construction for stochastic processes whose Levy measure densities are from positive exponential families, and then demonstrate that these processes in fact form the prior, likelihood, and posterior in a conjugate family. Our canonical construction subsumes known computational formulae for posterior density parameters in the cases where the likelihood is from a discrete distribution belonging to an exponential family.

Evolutionary clustering aims at capturing the temporal evolution of clusters. This issue is particularly important in the context of social media data that are naturally temporally driven. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic model-based evolutionary clustering technique. The Temporal Multinomial Mixture (TMM) is an extension of classical mixture model that optimizes feature co-occurrences in the trade-off with temporal smoothness. Our model is evaluated for two recent case studies on opinion aggregation over time. We compare four different probabilistic clustering models and we show the superiority of our proposal in the task of instance-oriented clustering.

For time series comparisons, it has often been observed that z-score normalized Euclidean distances far outperform the unnormalized variant. In this paper we show that a z-score normalized, squared Euclidean Distance is, in fact, equal to a distance based on Pearson Correlation. This has profound impact on many distance-based classification or clustering methods. In addition to this theoretically sound result we also show that the often used k-Means algorithm formally needs a mod ification to keep the interpretation as Pearson correlation strictly valid. Experimental results demonstrate that in many cases the standard k-Means algorithm generally produces the same results.

In this paper we introduce a novel family of decision lists consisting of highly interpretable models which can be learned efficiently in a greedy manner. The defining property is that all rules are oriented in the same direction. Particular examples of this family are decision lists with monotonically decreasing (or increasing) probabilities. On simulated data we empirically confirm that the proposed model family is easier to train than general decision lists. We exemplify the practical usability of our approach by identifying problem symptoms in a manufacturing process.

Bayesian optimization techniques have been successfully applied to robotics, planning, sensor placement, recommendation, advertising, intelligent user interfaces and automatic algorithm configuration. Despite these successes, the approach is restricted to problems of moderate dimension, and several workshops on Bayesian optimization have identified its scaling to high-dimensions as one of the holy grails of the field. In this paper, we introduce a novel random embedding idea to attack this problem. The resulting Random EMbedding Bayesian Optimization (REMBO) algorithm is very simple, has important invariance properties, and applies to domains with both categorical and continuous variables. We present a thorough theoretical analysis of REMBO. Empirical results confirm that REMBO can effectively solve problems with billions of dimensions, provided the intrinsic dimensionality is low. They also show that REMBO achieves state-of-the-art performance in optimizing the 47 discrete parameters of a popular mixed integer linear programming solver.

The problem of developing binary classifiers from positive and unlabeled data is often encountered in machine learning. A common requirement in this setting is to approximate posterior probabilities of positive and negative classes for a previously unseen data point. This problem can be decomposed into two steps: (i) the development of accurate predictors that discriminate between positive and unlabeled data, and (ii) the accurate estimation of the prior probabilities of positive and negative examples. In this work we primarily focus on the latter subproblem. We study nonparametric class prior estimation and formulate this problem as an estimation of mixing proportions in two-component mixture models, given a sample from one of the components and another sample from the mixture itself. We show that estimation of mixing proportions is generally ill-defined and propose a canonical form to obtain identifiability while maintaining the flexibility to model any distribution. We use insights from this theory to elucidate the optimization surface of the class priors and propose an algorithm for estimating them. To address the problems of high-dimensional density estimation, we provide practical transformations to low-dimensional spaces that preserve class priors. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method on univariate and multivariate data.