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Quantifying uncertainties on excursion sets under a Gaussian random field prior
Azzimonti, Dario, Bect, Julien, Chevalier, Clément, Ginsbourger, David
We focus on the problem of estimating and quantifying uncertainties on the excursion set of a function under a limited evaluation budget. We adopt a Bayesian approach where the objective function is assumed to be a realization of a Gaussian random field. In this setting, the posterior distribution on the objective function gives rise to a posterior distribution on excursion sets. Several approaches exist to summarize the distribution of such sets based on random closed set theory. While the recently proposed Vorob'ev approach exploits analytical formulae, further notions of variability require Monte Carlo estimators relying on Gaussian random field conditional simulations. In the present work we propose a method to choose Monte Carlo simulation points and obtain quasi-realizations of the conditional field at fine designs through affine predictors. The points are chosen optimally in the sense that they minimize the posterior expected distance in measure between the excursion set and its reconstruction. The proposed method reduces the computational costs due to Monte Carlo simulations and enables the computation of quasi-realizations on fine designs in large dimensions. We apply this reconstruction approach to obtain realizations of an excursion set on a fine grid which allow us to give a new measure of uncertainty based on the distance transform of the excursion set. Finally we present a safety engineering test case where the simulation method is employed to compute a Monte Carlo estimate of a contour line.
Planning, Executing, and Evaluating the Winograd Schema Challenge
Morgenstern, Leora (Leidos) | Davis, Ernest (New York University) | Ortiz, Charles L. (Nuance)
Turing test turns out to be highly susceptible to systems that few people would wish to call intelligent. The Loebner Prize Competition (Christian 2011) is in particular associated with the development of chatterbots that are best viewed as successors to ELIZA (Weizenbaum 1966), the program that fooled people into thinking that they were talking to a human psychotherapist by cleverly turning a person's statements into questions of the sort a therapist would ask. The knowledge and inference that characterize conversations of substance -- for example, discussing alternate metaphors in sonnets of Shakespeare -- and which Turing presented as examples of the sorts of conversation that an intelligent system should be able to produce, are absent in these chatterbots. The focus is merely on engaging in surfacelevel conversation that can fool some humans who do not delve too deeply into a conversation, for at least a few minutes, into thinking that they are speaking to another person. The test taker, however, who is given a commonsense knowledge.
WWTS (What Would Turing Say?)
WWTS (What Would Turing Say?) Turing's Imitation Game was a brilliant Turing was heavily influenced by the World War II "game" If Turing were alive today, what sort of test might he propose? If a machine could fool interrogators as often as a typical man, then one would have to conclude that that machine, as programmed, was as intelligent as a person (well, as intelligent as men.) As Judy Genova (1994) puts it, Turing's originally proposed game involves not a question of species, but one of gender. The current version, where the interrogator is told he or she needs to distinguish a person from a machine, is (1) much more difficult to get a program to pass, and (2) almost all the added difficulties are largely irrelevant to intelligence! And it's possible to muddy the waters even more by some programs appearing to do well at it due to various tricks, such as having the interviewee program claim to be a 13-year-old Ukrainian who doesn't speak English well (University of Reading 2014), and hence having all its wrong or bizarre responses excused due to cultural, age, or language issues.
The Social-Emotional Turing Challenge
Jarrold, William (Nuance Communications) | Yeh, Peter Z. (Nuance Communications)
Social-emotional intelligence is an essential part of being a competent human and is thus required for human-level AI. When considering alternatives to the Turing Test it is therefore a capacity that is important to test. We characterize this capacity as affective theory of mind and describe some unique challenges associated with its interpretive or generative nature. Mindful of these challenges we describe a five-step method along with preliminary investigations into its application. We also describe certain characteristics of the approach such as its incremental nature, and countermeasures that make it difficult to game or cheat.
AAAI Conferences Calendar
This page includes forthcoming AAAI sponsored conferences, conferences presented by AAAI Affiliates, and conferences held in cooperation with AAAI. AI Magazine also maintains a calendar listing that includes nonaffiliated conferences at www.aaai.org/Magazine/calendar.php. The Tenth International AAAI Conference 15th International Conference on 18th International Conference on on Web and Social Media Principles of Knowledge Representation Enterprise Information Systems ICWSM-16 will be held May 17-20, and Reasoning (KR 2016) KR ICEIS 2016 will be held April 27-30, 2016 in Cologne, Germany. IEA/AIE-2016 will be York, New York USA. to Washington DC USA. AAAI-17 will be held in January-February in New Orleans, Louisiana USA.
Summary Report of The First International Competition on Computational Models of Argumentation
Thimm, Matthias (Universität Koblenz-Landau) | Villata, Serena (Laboratoire d'Informatique, Signaux et Systèmes de Sophia-Antipolis (I3S)) | Cerutti, Federico (Cardiff University) | Oren, Nir (University of Aberdeen) | Strass, Hannes (Leipzig University) | Vallati, Mauro (University of Huddersfield)
We review the First International Competition on Computational Models of Argumentation (ICMMA’15). The competition evaluated submitted solvers performance on four different computational tasks related to solving abstract argumentation frameworks. Each task evaluated solvers in ways that pushed the edge of existing performance by introducing new challenges. Despite being the first competition in this area, the high number of competitors entered, and differences in results, suggest that the competition will help shape the landscape of ongoing developments in argumentation theory solvers.
A Report on the Ninth International Web Rule Symposium
Paschke, Adrian (AG Corporate Semantic Web)
The dinner speech at the Fischerhuette was given by Jörg Siekmann (University of Saarbrücken). The poster session, consisting of 18 posters and demos, was jointly organized as a get-together with the Berlin Semantic Web Meetup. At the session, wine, beer, and finger food were provided in the greenhouses of the Computer Science Department at The Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence the Freie Universität Berlin. The organizers also used (AAAI-17) and the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Innovative this unique opportunity to hold a joint public Applications of Artificial Intelligence (IAAI-17), will be RuleML and RR business meeting as well as an invited held in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, during the mid-January dinner with all chairs, and invited keynote speakers to mid-February timeframe. AAAI-17 August 1, a boat sightseeing tour from lake Wannsee will arrive in New Orleans just prior to Mardi Gras and festivities to the Reichstag on Sunday, August 2, the CADE exhibitions will already be underway.
Fifteenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law (ICAIL 2015)
Atkinson, Katie (University of Liverpool) | Conrad, Jack (Thomson Reuters) | Gardner, Anne (Independent Researcher) | Sichelman, Ted (University of San Diego)
The 15th International Conference on AI and Law (ICAIL 2015) will be held in San Diego, California, USA, June 8-12, 2015, at the University of San Diego, at the Kroc Institute, under the auspices of the International Association for Artificial Intelligence and Law (IAAIL), an organization devoted to promoting research and development in the field of AI and law with members throughout the world. The conference is held in cooperation with the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) and with ACM SIGAI (the Special Interest Group on Artificial Intelligence of the Association for Computing Machinery).
Software Social Organisms: Implications for Measuring AI Progress
Forbus, Kenneth D. (Northwestern University)
In this article I argue that achieving human-level AI is equivalent to learning how to create sufficiently smart software social organisms. This implies that no single test will be sufficient to measure progress. Instead, evaluations should be organized around showing increasing abilities to participate in our culture, as apprentices. This provides multiple dimensions within which progress can be measured, including how well different interaction modalities can be used, what range of domains can be tackled, what human-normed levels of knowledge they are able to acquire, as well as others. I begin by motivating the idea of software social organisms, drawing on ideas from other areas of cognitive science, and provide an analysis of the substrate capabilities that are needed in social organisms in terms closer to what is needed for computational modeling. Finally, the implications for evaluation are discussed.