A graphical model is a statistical model that is associated to a graph whose nodes correspond to variables of interest. The edges of the graph reflect allowed conditional dependencies among the variables. Graphical models admit computationally convenient factorization properties and have long been a valuable tool for tractable modeling of multivariate distributions. More recently, applications such as reconstructing gene regulatory networks from gene expression data have driven major advances in structure learning, that is, estimating the graph underlying a model. We review some of these advances and discuss methods such as the graphical lasso and neighborhood selection for undirected graphical models (or Markov random fields), and the PC algorithm and score-based search methods for directed graphical models (or Bayesian networks).

The vast majority of the neural network literature focuses on predicting point values for a given set of response variables, conditioned on a feature vector. In many cases we need to model the full joint conditional distribution over the response variables rather than simply making point predictions. In this paper, we present two novel approaches to such conditional density estimation (CDE): Multiscale Nets (MSNs) and CDE Trend Filtering. Multiscale nets transform the CDE regression task into a hierarchical classification task by decomposing the density into a series of half-spaces and learning boolean probabilities of each split. CDE Trend Filtering applies a k-th order graph trend filtering penalty to the unnormalized logits of a multinomial classifier network, with each edge in the graph corresponding to a neighboring point on a discretized version of the density. We compare both methods against plain multinomial classifier networks and mixture density networks (MDNs) on a simulated dataset and three real-world datasets. The results suggest the two methods are complementary: MSNs work well in a high-data-per-feature regime and CDE-TF is well suited for few-samples-per-feature scenarios where overfitting is a primary concern.

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but in their conventional form rely on having an accurate approximation of f, a priori. Stacked Monte Carlo (StackMC) is a recently introduced technique designed to overcome this limitation by fitting a control variate to the data samples themselves. Done naively, forming a control variate to the data would result in overfitting, typically worsening the MC algorithm's performance. StackMC uses in-sample / out-sample techniques to remove this overfitting. Crucially, it is a post-processing technique, requiring no additional samples, and can be applied to data generated by any MC estimator. Our preliminary experiments demonstrated that StackMC improved the estimates of expectations when it was used to post-process samples produces by a "simple sampling" MC estimator. Here we substantially extend this earlier work. We provide an in-depth analysis of the StackMC algorithm, which we use to construct an improved version of the original algorithm, with lower estimation error. We then perform experiments of StackMC on several additional kinds of MC estimators, demonstrating improved performance when the samples are generated via importance sampling, Latin-hypercube sampling and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. We also show how to extend StackMC to combine multiple fitting functions, and how to apply it to discrete input spaces x.

The analysis of streaming data is one of the biggest challenges posed by the expansion of digital healthcare and bioinformatics. A data stream is a sequence of data that arrives over time. Familiar examples are stock prices, sensor data from mobile devices, personal data from monitoring platforms and many more. The field of machine learning and data mining offers various frameworks for discovering patterns, hidden information, and learning the functional dependencies in complex data. Most methods in machine learning require a good choice of characteristic features to learn functions or compute the posterior probabilities.

We study the problem of structured prediction under test-time budget constraints. We propose a novel approach applicable to a wide range of structured prediction problems in computer vision and natural language processing. Our approach seeks to adaptively generate computationally costly features during test-time in order to reduce the computational cost of prediction while maintaining prediction performance. We show that training the adaptive feature generation system can be reduced to a series of structured learning problems, resulting in efficient training using existing structured learning algorithms. This framework provides theoretical justification for several existing heuristic approaches found in literature. We evaluate our proposed adaptive system on two structured prediction tasks, optical character recognition (OCR) and dependency parsing and show strong performance in reduction of the feature costs without degrading accuracy.

Consumers with low demand, like households, are generally supplied single-phase power by connecting their service mains to one of the phases of a distribution transformer. The distribution companies face the problem of keeping a record of consumer connectivity to a phase due to uninformed changes that happen. The exact phase connectivity information is important for the efficient operation and control of distribution system. We propose a new data driven approach to the problem based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its Graph Theoretic interpretations, using energy measurements in equally timed short intervals, generated from smart meters. We propose an algorithm for inferring phase connectivity from noisy measurements. The algorithm is demonstrated using simulated data for phase connectivities in distribution networks.

Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) are often associated with specific atypical postural or motor behaviors, of which Stereotypical Motor Movements (SMMs) have a specific visibility. While the identification and the quantification of SMM patterns remain complex, its automation would provide support to accurate tuning of the intervention in the therapy of autism. Therefore, it is essential to develop automatic SMM detection systems in a real world setting, taking care of strong inter-subject and intra-subject variability. Wireless accelerometer sensing technology can provide a valid infrastructure for real-time SMM detection, however such variability remains a problem also for machine learning methods, in particular whenever handcrafted features extracted from accelerometer signal are considered. Here, we propose to employ the deep learning paradigm in order to learn discriminating features from multi-sensor accelerometer signals. Our results provide preliminary evidence that feature learning and transfer learning embedded in the deep architecture achieve higher accurate SMM detectors in longitudinal scenarios.

We consider the problem of learning the preferences of a heterogeneous population by observing choices from an assortment of products, ads, or other offerings. Our observation model takes a form common in assortment planning applications: each arriving customer is offered an assortment consisting of a subset of all possible offerings; we observe only the assortment and the customer's single choice. In this paper we propose a mixture choice model with a natural underlying low-dimensional structure, and show how to estimate its parameters. In our model, the preferences of each customer or segment follow a separate parametric choice model, but the underlying structure of these parameters over all the models has low dimension. We show that a nuclear-norm regularized maximum likelihood estimator can learn the preferences of all customers using a number of observations much smaller than the number of item-customer combinations. This result shows the potential for structural assumptions to speed up learning and improve revenues in assortment planning and customization. We provide a specialized factored gradient descent algorithm and study the success of the approach empirically.

We propose using five data-driven community detection approaches from social networks to partition the label space for the task of multi-label classification as an alternative to random partitioning into equal subsets as performed by RAkELd: modularity-maximizing fastgreedy and leading eigenvector, infomap, walktrap and label propagation algorithms. We construct a label co-occurence graph (both weighted an unweighted versions) based on training data and perform community detection to partition the label set. We include Binary Relevance and Label Powerset classification methods for comparison. We use gini-index based Decision Trees as the base classifier. We compare educated approaches to label space divisions against random baselines on 12 benchmark data sets over five evaluation measures. We show that in almost all cases seven educated guess approaches are more likely to outperform RAkELd than otherwise in all measures, but Hamming Loss. We show that fastgreedy and walktrap community detection methods on weighted label co-occurence graphs are 85-92% more likely to yield better F1 scores than random partitioning. Infomap on the unweighted label co-occurence graphs is on average 90% of the times better than random paritioning in terms of Subset Accuracy and 89% when it comes to Jaccard similarity. Weighted fastgreedy is better on average than RAkELd when it comes to Hamming Loss.

Domain adaptation is the supervised learning setting in which the training and test data are sampled from different distributions: training data is sampled from a source domain, whilst test data is sampled from a target domain. This paper proposes and studies an approach, called feature-level domain adaptation (flda), that models the dependence between the two domains by means of a feature-level transfer model that is trained to describe the transfer from source to target domain. Subsequently, we train a domain-adapted classifier by minimizing the expected loss under the resulting transfer model. For linear classifiers and a large family of loss functions and transfer models, this expected loss can be comp uted or approximated analytically, and minimized efficiently. Our empirical evaluation of flda focuses on problems comprising binary and count data in which the transfer can be naturally modeled via a dropout distribution, which allows the classifier to adapt to differences in the marginal probability of features in the source and the target domain. Our experiments on several real-world problems show that flda performs on par with state-of-the-art domain-adaptation techniques. Keywords: Domain adaptation, transfer learning, sample selection bias, covariate shift, empirical risk minimization, dropout.