Time-to-event data is widespread across the life sciences and engineering, but it is typically encountered together with censoring, which complicates the application of standard machine learning methods. Deep Cox models have emerged as a popular method for analyzing time-to-event data because they gracefully handle censoring and can be used with unstructured data such as clinical text reports, genomic sequences, and pathology images. However, their predicted survival probabilities are often poorly calibrated, thus limiting their practical utility. In this paper, we propose a novel post hoc calibration method for Deep Cox models that uses isotonic regression to refine predicted survival probabilities without affecting discriminative power. We establish favorable theoretical guarantees, including a double-robustness property and asymptotic calibration. Experiments on synthetic and real-world clinical data demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our method.

Decision-makers frequently must choose a single action from a finite set of alternatives -- for example, physicians selecting a treatment, investors choosing a portfolio risk level, or judges determining sentences. To improve outcomes, policymakers often issue policy rules or guidelines to inform such choices. In this paper, I show how to generally derive policy rules from observational data in a multi-action framework under relatively weak assumptions about the underlying structure of the heterogeneous sampled population. Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are consistently estimated via a weighted K-means algorithm, assuming the outcome model is correctly specified within each homogeneous subgroup. Feasible policy rules are then implemented via a standard decision tree, allowing for both perfect and imperfect adherence to treatment. The methodology is applied to treatment options for Hepatitis C (HCV) among patients co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), a setting in which no uniform guideline exists for modern pharmaceutical therapies. The results identify a subgroup of patients with approximately an 80% probability of spontaneous HCV clearance without treatment. Estimation results also show that reallocating treatments among treated individuals could have reduced total treatment costs by CAN$3.6-4.9 million while still increasing aggregate health benefits relative to the status quo. These findings demonstrate that the proposed approach can generate improved, data-driven treatment guidelines for the management of HIV/HCV co-infected patients.

This raises a fundamental dilemma of statistical-computational tradeoffs: removing all samples from an unwanted domain may be computationally prohibitive, while randomly removing a subset may not provide distribution-level statistical guarantees. We propose a statistical framework for distributional unlearning, in which domains are modeled as probability distributions, and the goal is to remove a carefully chosen subset of samples that reduces the effect of an unwanted distribution while preserving performance on a desired one. We formalize this using a hypothesis test of the edited data with the desired and unwanted domains, leading to an interpretable and robust criterion for selecting samples to remove. Within this statistical framework, we characterize the fundamental region of the allowable edited data distributions and the removal-preservation Pareto frontier for a broad class of distribution families. This includes parametric families such as shifted Gaussians of arbitrary dimension, a one-dimensional location family with log-concave noise, and the one-dimensional Poisson family. It also includes nonparametric families such as the Gaussian white noise model, a canonical model for nonparametric regression. We prove composition rules that describe how distributional unlearning behaves across multimodal unwanted domains, and introduce a central-limit behavior for the removal-preservation baselines when composing a large number of such families. Finally, we provide finite sample guarantees by providing Pareto frontiers for some selection algorithms, and observe an information-computation gap.

Learning meaningful latent representations from nonlinear fMRI data remains a fundamental challenge in neuroimaging analysis. Traditional independent component analysis, widely used due to its ability to estimate interpretable functional brain networks, relies on a linear mixing assumption for latent sources, limiting its ability to capture the inherently nonlinear and complex organization of brain dynamics. More recently, deep representation learning methods have emerged as promising alternatives for modeling nonlinear latent structure. However, many of these approaches have been evaluated primarily on simulated datasets or natural image benchmarks, with comparatively limited validation on real-world neuroimaging data such as fMRI. In this work, we are motivated by the $β$-TCVAE (Total Correlation Variational Autoencoder), a refinement of the $β$-VAE framework for learning latent representations without introducing additional hyperparameters during training. We adapt and modify this model to fMRI data for nonlinear source disentanglement, aiming to separate mixed spatial and temporal brain signals into interpretable components. We show that the $β$-TCVAE framework can recover meaningful nonlinear spatial components with biological relevance, including well-established intrinsic connectivity networks such as the default mode network. Furthermore, we evaluate the learned representations using functional network connectivity, showing that the latent structure captures coherent and interpretable brain organization patterns. This study provides a pilot investigation that bridges nonlinear representation learning and fMRI analysis.

Multi-agent language systems are often built as hand-designed workflows, where agents are assigned semantic roles and communication protocols are specified in advance. We propose NeuroMAS, a method that first treats a multi-agent language system as a trainable and scalable neural-network-like architecture with LLM agents as nodes and intermediate textual signals as edges. In NeuroMAS, agent nodes are role-free but structure-aware: the topology only determines how information can flow in general, while reinforcement learning training determines how nodes communicate, specialize, and coordinate. This formulation shifts multi-agent design from workflow engineering toward architecture design, where depth, width, connectivity, and growth protocol become scalable sources of capability. Further, we provide a theoretical perspective showing why such modular textual computation is more parameter-efficient when tasks admit hierarchical decompositions. Experiments show that NeuroMAS improves significantly over both inference-time and trained multi-agent baselines. We further find that organizational scaling is path-dependent: larger systems can be challenging to train from scratch, but become feasible when grown progressively from smaller trained systems. These results suggest that learned neural multi-agent systems are a promising scaling axis for LLMs.

We consider the following two-player game: using observational data, the leader chooses a prediction function for a response variable $Y$ from given covariates. The follower then reacts with an intervention on some covariates in the underlying structural causal model to maximize their own objective. The leader knows the intervention targets, but may have limited knowledge of the follower's objective. We call this setup a prediction-intervention game, a special case of a Stackelberg game. Finding an optimal strategy for the leader is generally difficult. To avoid severe performance loss, the leader may base their prediction on the causal parents of $Y$, or more generally on an invariant subset of covariates. We prove, for two common classes of follower objectives, that predictors based on the stable blanket, a specific invariant subset, are always better or as good as those based on the causal parents. We further upper bound the leader's post-intervention risk by a worst-case risk over allowed interventions and strengthen existing distribution generalization results to analyze this bound: we give sufficient conditions under which stable-blanket predictors are worst-case optimal, and show by examples that these conditions cannot in general be dropped. Finally, we discuss practical strategies for settings with known and unknown graph, and test them on simulated and real-world data.

Neural networks trained with gradient-based methods exhibit a strong simplicity bias: they learn simpler statistical features of their data before moving to more complex features. Previous analyses of this phenomenon have largely focused on settings with (quasi-)isotropic inputs. In this work, we study the simplicity bias from a Fourier perspective, which allows us to include two key features of natural images in the analysis: approximate translation-invariance and power-law spectra. We first show experimentally that simple neural networks trained on image classification tasks first rely on amplitude information -- related to pair-wise correlations between pixels -- before exploiting phase information, which encodes edges and higher-order correlations. In view of this, we introduce a synthetic data model for translation-invariant inputs that allows precise control over amplitudes and phases while remaining tractable. We rigorously establish that for isotropic and high-dimensional inputs, classification based on phase information alone is a genuinely hard task: online stochastic gradient descent (SGD) cannot distinguish the structured inputs from noise within $n \ll N^3$ steps, but needs at least $n \gg N^3 \log^2{N}$ steps. In contrast, we show both experimentally and theoretically that power-law spectra can dramatically accelerate the speed of learning phase information, even if the spectra do not help with classification. Simulations with two-layer networks trained on textures and with deep convolutional networks on ImageNet and CIFAR100 confirm this non-trivial interaction between amplitudes and phases, providing mechanistic insights into how deep neural networks can learn natural image distributions efficiently.

Many decision-facing stochastic systems are observed through aggregate distributions rather than scalar trajectories: queue occupancies, mobility shares, publichealth mixtures, generation-source shares, ecological compositions, and air-quality severity profiles all live on the probability simplex and evolve over time. We study causal (time-respecting online) forecasting for these distribution-valued time series and argue that the transition operator itself should be structured around the simplex. We introduce CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport), a successor-local operator that (i) retrieves empirical successors from causal context, (ii) stabilizes them with a persistence anchor, and (iii) applies a bounded local stochastic transport on ordered supports; every stage preserves the simplex by construction. We identify a structural failure mode, latent transition-kernel aliasing, where similar observed distributions evolve differently under different contextual regimes, and prove that any forecaster depending only on an aliased summary incurs an irreducible weighted Jensen-Shannon excess-risk lower bound, while the CAST hypothesis class contains the regime-aware Bayes successor; for ordered supports an additional Pinsker separation holds whenever the transported successor lies outside the no-transport anchor hull. On a suite of eleven public and simulated benchmarks spanning ecology, energy, diet, mortality, employment, air quality, severe weather, mobility, and G/G/1, Gt/G/1 queue occupancy, CAST achieves the best average rank on both one-step KL (1.27) and autoregressive rollout JSD (1.91), winning 8/11 sections on each metric against a broad statistical, compositional, recurrent, convolutional, Transformer, and modern time-series baseline set, and top-2 on all 11 sections for offline KL. Component ablations and a controlled synthetic aliasing experiment corroborate the theory. The code release is available at this link.

However, many real-world problems involve intrinsic uncertainties arising from incomplete physical knowledge, imperfect observations, environmental variability, and unresolved multiscale processes. These uncertainties may appear, for example, in initial or boundary conditions, unresolved physical processes, or heterogeneous material properties, and can significantly impact predictive accuracy. To obtain reliable and uncertainty-aware predictions, such effects are often incorporated directly into the mathematical formulation through random inputs, stochastic coefficients, or stochastic perturbations, leading to stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Deriving numerical solutions to SPDEs has thus become a central focus of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community, where extensive efforts have been devoted to developing efficient solvers that can accurately characterize and propagate uncertainty in high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical systems (see, e.g., [1, 2, 12, 9, 13, 14, 18, 30, 40, 50, 56] and the references therein). Although traditional methods are effective for solving SPDEs and propagating uncertainty from stochastic input data to model predictions, they often require substantial computational cost, especially for time-dependent and multiscale problems [49, 51]. 1

Differentiable optimization layers are traditionally integrated in predict-then-optimize frameworks where a neural model estimates parameters that subsequently serve as fixed inputs to downstream decision-making optimization problems. In this work, we introduce the concept of a "fairness layer": a differentiable optimization layer appended to a model's output layer that guarantees a chosen notion of output parity is satisfied when integrated into a neural network. Additionally, we introduce an online primal-dual inference algorithm that provides provable aggregate fairness guarantees for streaming predictions with arbitrarily small batch sizes, where traditional per-batch constraints become overly restrictive. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the fairness layer and associated algorithm, and theoretical analysis characterizes the layer's differentiability and stability properties during model training and backpropagation. Our code for these experiments is publicly available on GitHub (https://github.com/dtroxell19/FairDL-ICML-2026.git) and our public Python package documentation can be found online: https://dtroxell19.github.io/fairness_training/.