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Goal-Oriented Lower-Tail Calibration of Gaussian Processes for Bayesian Optimization
Pion, Aurélien, Vazquez, Emmanuel
Bayesian optimization (BO) selects evaluation points for expensive black-box objectives using Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions. Kernel choice and hyperparameter selection can lead to miscalibrated predictive distributions and an inappropriate exploration-exploitation trade-off. For minimization, sampling criteria such as expected improvement (EI) depend on the predictive distribution below the current best value, so lower-tail miscalibration directly affects the sampling decision. This article studies goal-oriented calibration of GP predictive distributions below a low threshold $t$ in the noiseless setting, for standard GP models with hyperparameters selected by maximum likelihood. A framework for predictive reliability below $t$ is introduced, based on two notions of spatial calibration: occurrence calibration over the design space and thresholded $μ$-calibration on sublevel sets of the form $\{x\in\mathbb{X}, f(x)\le t\}$. Building on this framework, we propose tcGP, a post-hoc method that calibrates GP predictive distributions below~$t$, and we show that the resulting EI-based global optimization algorithm remains dense in the design space. Experiments on standard benchmarks show improved lower-tail calibration and BO performance relative to standard GP models and globally calibrated GP models.
Lebanon says 19 killed in Israeli air strikes
Israeli air strikes have killed at least 19 people in southern Lebanon, the country's health ministry has said. Ten of them, including three children and three women, were killed in a single attack that hit a house in the town of Deir Qanoun, the ministry said. Lebanon was drawn into the war on 2 March, when the Iran-backed armed Shia Islamist group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader. The latest deaths less than a week after the US said that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to extend a ceasefire by 45 days, with the two sides set to resume talks at the beginning of June. Despite the extension, both Israel and Hezbollah have continued to exchange fire, especially in southern Lebanon.
More than 15,800 people killed in Russia's all-out war on Ukraine: UN
What are Russia's gains from the Iran war? 'We are not losers; we are winners' More than 15,800 people killed in Russia's all-out war on Ukraine: UN The United Nations has said 15,850 people, including 791 children, have been killed in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion of the neighbouring country in February 2022. The "actual figures are likely significantly higher", Kayoko Gotoh, Europe and Central Asia director of the UN's Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), told the UN Security Council on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump has attempted to mediate and announced the most recent three-day ceasefire earlier this month, but fighting has resumed. Tuesday's Russian attacks on Ukraine killed at least six people. A 15-year-old boy was among three people killed in a Russian ballistic missile attack on the city of Pryluky in north-central Ukraine's Chernihiv region on Tuesday morning, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.
Everything Announced at Google I/O 2026: Gemini, Search, Smart Glasses
Google is sprucing up its Gemini models, revamping search, and enabling AI agents in everything. There are also some spiffy new smart glasses coming this fall. Google just wrapped its keynote address at its annual I/O developer event . The company showed off a swath of new agentic AI features and some demos of its upcoming Android-powered smart glasses. As it has in the past few years, the spectacle largely revolved around Google's perpetual stream of AI efforts.
'Obvious markers of AI': doubts raised over winner of short story prize
The Commonwealth Foundation said all entrants to the prize had avowed that their submissions were their own work. The Commonwealth Foundation said all entrants to the prize had avowed that their submissions were their own work. 'Obvious markers of AI': doubts raised over winner of short story prize Granta publisher says'perhaps we never will know' true authorship of work that won Commonwealth prize A few syntactical tics - and the verdict of an AI detection platform - have sparked a furore over the possibility that a short story given a prestigious literary award was written by AI. The foundation that awarded the prize and Granta, the magazine that published the winning story, said they had considered the allegations but had not reached a conclusion as to whether they were true. "It may be that the judges have now awarded a prize to an instance of AI plagiarism - we don't yet know, and perhaps we never will know," the publisher of Granta, Sigrid Rausing, said.
Estonia says Nato jet shot down drone over its territory
Estonia has said a Nato fighter jet shot down a drone, which it suspects was a Ukrainian projectile knocked off course by Russian electronic jamming, over its territory. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said a Romanian F-16 fired a missile and drone debris fell in a marshy area in central Estonia on Tuesday. Ukraine reacted by accusing Russia of deliberately redirecting Ukrainian drones launched at legitimate military targets in Russia, apologising to Estonia and all of our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents. Russia has not commented on the latest in a series of recent drone incursions over Nato members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Last week, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned following a political crisis over Russia-bound Ukrainian drones straying into Latvian territory.
Meta Employees Are Scrambling to Use Up Benefits Ahead of Layoffs
On the eve of about 8,000 jobs being cut, employees are cashing in on headphone stipends and other perks while they still can. Ahead of Meta's latest round of mass layoffs tomorrow, some employees are deserting offices, abandoning their work, and loading up on perks they might soon lose, several people at the company tell WIRED. Two employees describe a widespread rush to use up an annual $2,000 flexible benefit, which can cover a variety of expenses including health and wellness activities. A separate triennial credit of $200 toward the purchase of audio gear has led to a scramble to purchase Apple AirPods and other headphones. Another source says Meta offices have been largely empty this week, as people prioritize polishing their résumés and gather offsite to commiserate with friends for what may be their final time as colleagues.
Newly discovered spider has smiley face on its back
'I knew instantly we had a jackpot.' More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Both species appear to have a preference for ginger plants. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. The happy-face spider () is famous for the particularly cheery looking patterns on top of its abdomen.
Everything announced at Google I/O 2026
Eyes in the tech world have turned toward Mountain View, California this week. The San Francisco Bay Area city is where Google's headquarters is located, making it a logical place to hold the company's annual developer conference. That's right, gang, Google I/O 2026 kicked off on Tuesday with the usual opening keynote, which is where the company reveals what's arguably the event's most relevant info for consumers. Google made a ton of Android announcements last week, so its mobile ecosystem wasn't really on the agenda. But what else could the onus possibly have been on if not AI? We heard the word Gemini more times than I could possibly care to count, and the company had many updates to share on that front. Search, Google's longtime bread and butter, was a big focus of the event. The company talked up a new Ask YouTube feature as well as changes to AI subscription pricing and Workspace features like Docs and Gmail.
Meta is rapidly reorganizing its workers' jobs around AI: 'Transfers aren't optional'
Meta is rapidly reorganizing its workers' jobs around AI: 'Transfers aren't optional' As Meta races to recenter itself around artificial intelligence, the tech giant is mandating that more than 7,000 workers must move to new teams, and it's radically changing some employees' jobs. The Guardian has also learned that some of these reassigned employees will shift to two new teams: one building AI cloud infrastructure and another that's building an internal AI agent codenamed Hatch. Late last week, Meta employees received a notice that engineers had been "selected" for reassignment and would begin reporting to the cloud infrastructure and Hatch teams by the end of this week. Meta made a similar move last month when it reshuffled at least 1,000 engineers on to a new data labeling team called Applied AI, or AAI - at first giving them the option to volunteer, but later telling workers: "Transfers aren't optional." "Our work, infrastructure and our products are fundamentally changing as a result of the continued acceleration of AI," wrote Peter Hoose, vice-president of production engineering at Meta, in an internal post about the two new teams viewed by the Guardian. "The pace of what we are building is unprecedented, and these are exactly the kind of challenges that define what we do best."