Electronic health records are an increasingly important resource for understanding the interactions between patient health, environment, and clinical decisions. In this paper we report an empirical study of predictive modeling of several patient outcomes using three state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Our primary goal is to validate the models by interpreting the importance of predictors in the final models. Central to interpretation is the use of feature importance scores, which vary depending on the underlying methodology. In order to assess feature importance, we compared univariate statistical tests, information-theoretic measures, permutation testing, and normalized coefficients from multivariate logistic regression models. In general we found poor correlation between methods in their assessment of feature importance, even when their performance is comparable and relatively good. However, permutation tests applied to random forest and gradient boosting models showed the most agreement, and the importance scores matched the clinical interpretation most frequently.

Learning data representations that reflect the customers' creditworthiness can improve marketing campaigns, customer relationship management, data and process management or the credit risk assessment in retail banks. In this research, we adopt the Variational Autoencoder (VAE), which has the ability to learn latent representations that contain useful information. We show that it is possible to steer the latent representations in the latent space of the VAE using the Weight of Evidence and forming a specific grouping of the data that reflects the customers' creditworthiness. Our proposed method learns a latent representation of the data, which shows a well-defied clustering structure capturing the customers' creditworthiness. These clusters are well suited for the aforementioned banks' activities.

Multilayer switch networks are proposed as artificial generators of high-dimensional discrete data (e.g., binary vectors, categorical data, natural language, network log files, and discrete-valued time series). Unlike deconvolution networks which generate continuous-valued data and which consist of upsampling filters and reverse pooling layers, multilayer switch networks are composed of adaptive switches which model conditional distributions of discrete random variables. An interpretable, statistical framework is introduced for training these nonlinear networks based on a maximum-likelihood objective function. To learn network parameters, stochastic gradient descent is applied to the objective. This direct optimization is stable until convergence, and does not involve back-propagation over separate encoder and decoder networks, or adversarial training of dueling networks. While training remains tractable for moderately sized networks, Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approximations of gradients are derived for deep networks which contain latent variables. The statistical framework is evaluated on synthetic data, high-dimensional binary data of handwritten digits, and web-crawled natural language data. Aspects of the model's framework such as interpretability, computational complexity, and generalization ability are discussed.

How to obtain a model with good interpretability and performance has always been an important research topic. In this paper, we propose rectified decision trees (ReDT), a knowledge distillation based decision trees rectification with high interpretability, small model size, and empirical soundness. Specifically, we extend the impurity calculation and the pure ending condition of the classical decision tree to propose a decision tree extension that allows the use of soft labels generated by a well-trained teacher model in training and prediction process. It is worth noting that for the acquisition of soft labels, we propose a new multiple cross-validation based method to reduce the effects of randomness and overfitting. These approaches ensure that ReDT retains excellent interpretability and even achieves fewer nodes than the decision tree in the aspect of compression while having relatively good performance. Besides, in contrast to traditional knowledge distillation, back propagation of the student model is not necessarily required in ReDT, which is an attempt of a new knowledge distillation approach. Extensive experiments are conducted, which demonstrates the superiority of ReDT in interpretability, compression, and empirical soundness.

Constructing the adjacency graph is fundamental to graph-based clustering. Graph learning in kernel space has shown impressive performance on a number of benchmark data sets. However, its performance is largely determined by the chosen kernel matrix. To address this issue, the previous multiple kernel learning algorithm has been applied to learn an optimal kernel from a group of predefined kernels. This approach might be sensitive to noise and limits the representation ability of the consensus kernel. In contrast to existing methods, we propose to learn a low-rank kernel matrix which exploits the similarity nature of the kernel matrix and seeks an optimal kernel from the neighborhood of candidate kernels. By formulating graph construction and kernel learning in a unified framework, the graph and consensus kernel can be iteratively enhanced by each other. Extensive experimental results validate the efficacy of the proposed method.

Labeling training data is a key bottleneck in the modern machine learning pipeline. Recent weak supervision approaches combine labels from multiple noisy sources by estimating their accuracies without access to ground truth labels; however, estimating the dependencies among these sources is a critical challenge. We focus on a robust PCA-based algorithm for learning these dependency structures, establish improved theoretical recovery rates, and outperform existing methods on various real-world tasks. Under certain conditions, we show that the amount of unlabeled data needed can scale sublinearly or even logarithmically with the number of sources $m$, improving over previous efforts that ignore the sparsity pattern in the dependency structure and scale linearly in $m$. We provide an information-theoretic lower bound on the minimum sample complexity of the weak supervision setting. Our method outperforms weak supervision approaches that assume conditionally-independent sources by up to 4.64 F1 points and previous structure learning approaches by up to 4.41 F1 points on real-world relation extraction and image classification tasks.

Attribution methods have been developed to explain the decision of a machine learning model on a given input. We use the Integrated Gradient method for finding attributions to define the causal neighborhood of an input by incrementally masking high attribution features. We study the robustness of machine learning models on benign and adversarial inputs in this neighborhood. Our study indicates that benign inputs are robust to the masking of high attribution features but adversarial inputs generated by the state-of-the-art adversarial attack methods such as DeepFool, FGSM, CW and PGD, are not robust to such masking. Further, our study demonstrates that this concentration of high-attribution features responsible for the incorrect decision is more pronounced in physically realizable adversarial examples. This difference in attribution of benign and adversarial inputs can be used to detect adversarial examples. Such a defense approach is independent of training data and attack method, and we demonstrate its effectiveness on digital and physically realizable perturbations.

Deep Reinforcement Learning has enabled the control of increasingly complex and high-dimensional problems. However, the need of vast amounts of data before reasonable performance is attained prevents its widespread application. We employ binary corrective feedback as a general and intuitive manner to incorporate human intuition and domain knowledge in model-free machine learning. The uncertainty in the policy and the corrective feedback is combined directly in the action space as probabilistic conditional exploration. As a result, the greatest part of the otherwise ignorant learning process can be avoided. We demonstrate the proposed method, Predictive Probabilistic Merging of Policies (PPMP), in combination with DDPG. In experiments on continuous control problems of the OpenAI Gym, we achieve drastic improvements in sample efficiency, final performance, and robustness to erroneous feedback, both for human and synthetic feedback. Additionally, we show solutions beyond the demonstrated knowledge.

Lifted inference scales to large probability models by exploiting symmetry. However, existing exact lifted inference techniques do not apply to general factor graphs, as they require a relational representation. In this work we provide a theoretical framework and algorithm for performing exact lifted inference on symmetric factor graphs by computing colored graph automorphisms, as is often done for approximate lifted inference. Our key insight is to represent variable assignments directly in the colored factor graph encoding. This allows us to generate representatives and compute the size of each orbit of the symmetric distribution. In addition to exact inference, we use this encoding to implement an MCMC algorithm that explores the space of orbits quickly by uniform orbit sampling.

He has demanded "goddamned steam" to power the Navy's aircraft carriers and prefers a wall to drones and other technology to secure the country's southern border. He has rejected the scientific consensus on climate change and repeatedly, wrongly, pointed to occasional wintry weather as proof that he's right. And this week, amid a safety scare involving Boeing's 737 MAX 8 and MAX 9 airplanes, President Trump complained that modern jets are "too complex to fly." He added: "I see it all the time in many products. Always seeking to go one unnecessary step further, when often old and simpler is far better."