The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely-used medical test, typically consisting of 12 voltage versus time traces collected from surface recordings over the heart. Here we hypothesize that a deep neural network can predict an important future clinical event (one-year all-cause mortality) from ECG voltage-time traces. We show good performance for predicting one-year mortality with an average AUC of 0.85 from a model cross-validated on 1,775,926 12-lead resting ECGs, that were collected over a 34-year period in a large regional health system. Even within the large subset of ECGs interpreted as 'normal' by a physician (n=297,548), the model performance to predict one-year mortality remained high (AUC=0.84), and Cox Proportional Hazard model revealed a hazard ratio of 6.6 (p<0.005) for the two predicted groups (dead vs alive one year after ECG) over a 30-year follow-up period. A blinded survey of three cardiologists suggested that the patterns captured by the model were generally not visually apparent to cardiologists even after being shown 240 paired examples of labeled true positives (dead) and true negatives (alive). In summary, deep learning can add significant prognostic information to the interpretation of 12-lead resting ECGs, even in cases that are interpreted as 'normal' by physicians.

Existing depth separation results for constant-depth networks essentially show that certain radial functions in $\mathbb{R}^d$, which can be easily approximated with depth $3$ networks, cannot be approximated by depth $2$ networks, even up to constant accuracy, unless their size is exponential in $d$. However, the functions used to demonstrate this are rapidly oscillating, with a Lipschitz parameter scaling polynomially with the dimension $d$ (or equivalently, by scaling the function, the hardness result applies to $\mathcal{O}(1)$-Lipschitz functions only when the target accuracy $\epsilon$ is at most $\text{poly}(1/d)$). In this paper, we study whether such depth separations might still hold in the natural setting of $\mathcal{O}(1)$-Lipschitz radial functions, when $\epsilon$ does not scale with $d$. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that the answer is negative: In contrast to the intuition suggested by previous work, it \emph{is} possible to approximate $\mathcal{O}(1)$-Lipschitz radial functions with depth $2$, size $\text{poly}(d)$ networks, for every constant $\epsilon$. We complement it by showing that approximating such functions is also possible with depth $2$, size $\text{poly}(1/\epsilon)$ networks, for every constant $d$. Finally, we show that it is not possible to have polynomial dependence in both $d,1/\epsilon$ simultaneously. Overall, our results indicate that in order to show depth separations for expressing $\mathcal{O}(1)$-Lipschitz functions with constant accuracy -- if at all possible -- one would need fundamentally different techniques than existing ones in the literature.

Automated hyperparameter tuning aspires to facilitate the application of machine learning for non-experts. In the literature, different optimization approaches are applied for that purpose. This paper investigates the performance of Differential Evolution for tuning hyperparameters of supervised learning algorithms for classification tasks. This empirical study involves a range of different machine learning algorithms and datasets with various characteristics to compare the performance of Differential Evolution with Sequential Model-based Algorithm Configuration (SMAC), a reference Bayesian Optimization approach. The results indicate that Differential Evolution outperforms SMAC for most datasets when tuning a given machine learning algorithm - particularly when breaking ties in a first-to-report fashion. Only for the tightest of computational budgets SMAC performs better. On small datasets, Differential Evolution outperforms SMAC by 19% (37% after tie-breaking). In a second experiment across a range of representative datasets taken from the literature, Differential Evolution scores 15% (23% after tie-breaking) more wins than SMAC.

Globally normalized neural sequence models are considered superior to their locally normalized equivalents because they may ameliorate the effects of label bias. However, when considering high-capacity neural parametrizations that condition on the whole input sequence, both model classes are theoretically equivalent in terms of the distributions they are capable of representing. Thus, the practical advantage of global normalization in the context of modern neural methods remains unclear. In this paper, we attempt to shed light on this problem through an empirical study. We extend an approach for search-aware training via a continuous relaxation of beam search (Goyal et al., 2017b) in order to enable training of globally normalized recurrent sequence models through simple backpropagation. We then use this technique to conduct an empirical study of the interaction between global normalization, high-capacity encoders, and search-aware optimization. We observe that in the context of inexact search, globally normalized neural models are still more effective than their locally normalized counterparts. Further, since our training approach is sensitive to warm-starting with pre-trained models, we also propose a novel initialization strategy based on self-normalization for pre-training globally normalized models. We perform analysis of our approach on two tasks: CCG supertagging and Machine Translation, and demonstrate the importance of global normalization under different conditions while using search-aware training.

The second order method as Newton Step is a suitable technique in Online Learning to guarantee regret bound. The large data is a challenge in Newton method to store second order matrices as hessian. In this paper, we have proposed an modified online Newton step that store first and second order matrices of dimension m (classes) by d (features). we have used element wise arithmetic operation to retain matrices size same. The modified second order matrix size results in faster computations. Also, the mistake rate is at par with respect to popular methods in literature. The experiments outcome indicate that proposed method could be helpful to handle large multi class datasets in common desktop machines using second order method as Newton step.

Deep learning has arguably achieved tremendous success in recent years. In simple words, deep learning uses the composition of many nonlinear functions to model the complex dependency between input features and labels. While neural networks have a long history, recent advances have greatly improved their performance in computer vision, natural language processing, etc. From the statistical and scientific perspective, it is natural to ask: What is deep learning? What are the new characteristics of deep learning, compared with classical methods? What are the theoretical foundations of deep learning? To answer these questions, we introduce common neural network models (e.g., convolutional neural nets, recurrent neural nets, generative adversarial nets) and training techniques (e.g., stochastic gradient descent, dropout, batch normalization) from a statistical point of view. Along the way, we highlight new characteristics of deep learning (including depth and over-parametrization) and explain their practical and theoretical benefits. We also sample recent results on theories of deep learning, many of which are only suggestive. While a complete understanding of deep learning remains elusive, we hope that our perspectives and discussions serve as a stimulus for new statistical research.

In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional entropy of the data point to be estimated or predicted given the side information or past observations. Additionally, we discover that in order to achieve the prediction error bounds asymptotically, the necessary and sufficient condition is that the "innovation" is asymptotically white Gaussian. When restricted to Gaussian processes and 1-step prediction, our bounds are shown to reduce to the Kolmogorov-Szeg\"o formula and Wiener-Masani formula known from linear prediction theory.

Irony and sarcasm are two complex linguistic phenomena that are widely used in everyday language and especially over the social media, but they represent two serious issues for automated text understanding. Many labelled corpora have been extracted from several sources to accomplish this task, and it seems that sarcasm is conveyed in different ways for different domains. Nonetheless, very little work has been done for comparing different methods among the available corpora. Furthermore, usually, each author collects and uses its own dataset to evaluate his own method. In this paper, we show that sarcasm detection can be tackled by applying classical machine learning algorithms to input texts sub-symbolically represented in a Latent Semantic space. The main consequence is that our studies establish both reference datasets and baselines for the sarcasm detection problem that could serve to the scientific community to test newly proposed methods.

A deep reinforcement learning based multi-objective autonomous braking system is presented. The design of the system is formulated in a continuous action space and seeks to maximize both pedestrian safety and perception as well as passenger comfort. The vehicle agent is trained against a large naturalistic dataset containing pedestrian road-crossing trials in which respondents walked across a road under various traffic conditions within an interactive virtual reality environment. The policy for brake control is learned through computer simulation using two reinforcement learning methods i.e. Proximal Policy Optimization and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient and the efficiency of each are compared. Results show that the system is able to reduce the negative influence on passenger comfort by half while maintaining safe braking operation.

In this paper, we study the problem of spectrum scarcity in a network of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during mission-critical applications such as disaster monitoring and public safety missions, where the pre-allocated spectrum is not sufficient to offer a high data transmission rate for real-time video-streaming. In such scenarios, the UAV network can lease part of the spectrum of a terrestrial licensed network in exchange for providing relaying service. In order to optimize the performance of the UAV network and prolong its lifetime, some of the UAVs will function as a relay for the primary network while the rest of the UAVs carry out their sensing tasks. Here, we propose a team reinforcement learning algorithm performed by the UAV's controller unit to determine the optimum allocation of sensing and relaying tasks among the UAVs as well as their relocation strategy at each time. We analyze the convergence of our algorithm and present simulation results to evaluate the system throughput in different scenarios.