Safety evaluation of autonomous vehicles is extensively studied recently, one line of studies considers Monte Carlo based evaluation. The Monte Carlo based evaluation usually estimates the probability of safety-critical events as a safety measurement based on Monte Carlo samples. These Monte Carlo samples are generated from a stochastic model that is constructed based on real-world data. In this paper, we propose an approach to assess the potential estimation error in the evaluation procedure caused by data variability. The proposed method merges the classical bootstrap method for estimating input uncertainty with a likelihood ratio based scheme to reuse experiment results. The proposed approach is highly economical and efficient in terms of implementation costs in assessing input uncertainty for autonomous vehicle evaluation.

Guiding the design of neural networks is of great importance to save enormous resources consumed on empirical decisions of architectural parameters. This paper constructs shallow sigmoid-type neural networks that achieve 100% accuracy in classification for datasets following a linear separability condition. The separability condition in this work is more relaxed than the widely used linear separability. Moreover, the constructed neural network guarantees perfect classification for any datasets sampled from a separable probability distribution. This generalization capability comes from the saturation of sigmoid function that exploits small margins near the boundaries of intervals formed by the separable probability distribution.

Intensive care clinicians are presented with large quantities of patient information and measurements from a multitude of monitoring systems. The limited ability of humans to process such complex information hinders physicians to readily recognize and act on early signs of patient deterioration. We used machine learning to develop an early warning system for circulatory failure based on a high-resolution ICU database with 240 patient years of data. This automatic system predicts 90.0% of circulatory failure events (prevalence 3.1%), with 81.8% identified more than two hours in advance, resulting in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 94.0% and area under the precision-recall curve of 63.0%. The model was externally validated in a large independent patient cohort.

Automated planning technology has developed significantly. Designing a planning model that allows an automated agent to be capable of reacting intelligently to unexpected events in a real execution environment yet remains a challenge. This article describes a domain-independent approach to allow the agent to be context-aware of its execution environment and the task it performs, acquire new information that is guaranteed to be related and more importantly manageable, and integrate such information into its model through the use of ontologies and semantic operations to autonomously formulate new objectives, resulting in a more human-like behaviour for handling unexpected events in the context of opportunities.

Optimal planning with respect to learned neural network (NN) models in continuous action and state spaces using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) is a challenging task for branch-and-bound solvers due to the poor linear relaxation of the underlying MILP model. For a given set of features, potential heuristics provide an efficient framework for computing bounds on cost (reward) functions. In this paper, we introduce a finite-time algorithm for computing an optimal potential heuristic for learned NN models. We then strengthen the linear relaxation of the underlying MILP model by introducing constraints to bound the reward function based on the precomputed reward potentials. Experimentally, we show that our algorithm efficiently computes reward potentials for learned NN models, and the overhead of computing reward potentials is justified by the overall strengthening of the underlying MILP model for the task of planning over long-term horizons.

Graph classification is a difficult problem that has drawn a lot of attention from the machine learning community over the past few years. This is mainly due to the fact that, contrarily to Euclidean vectors, the inherent complexity of graph structures can be quite hard to encode and handle for traditional classifiers. Even though kernels have been proposed in the literature, the increase in the dataset sizes has greatly limited the use of kernel methods since computation and storage of kernel matrices has become impracticable. In this article, we propose to use extended persistence diagrams to efficiently encode graph structure. More precisely, we show that using the so-called heat kernel signatures for the computation of these extended persistence diagrams allows one to quickly and efficiently summarize the graph structure. Then, we build on the recent development of neural networks for point clouds to define an architecture for (extended) persistence diagrams which is modular and easy-to-use. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our approach by validating our architecture on several graph datasets, on which the obtained results are comparable to the state-of-the-art for graph classification.

Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a prominent knowledge representation language with roots in logic programming and non-monotonic reasoning. Biennial ASP competitions are organized in order to furnish challenging benchmark collections and assess the advancement of the state of the art in ASP solving. In this paper, we report on the design and results of the Seventh ASP Competition, jointly organized by the University of Calabria (Italy), the University of Genova (Italy), and the University of Potsdam (Germany), in affiliation with the 14th International Conference on Logic Programming and Non-Monotonic Reasoning (LPNMR 2017). (Under consideration for acceptance in TPLP).

Network embedding is a method to learn low-dimensional representation vectors for nodes in complex networks. In real networks, nodes may have multiple tags but existing methods ignore the abundant semantic and hierarchical information of tags. This information is useful to many network applications and usually very stable. In this paper, we propose a tag representation learning model, Tag2Vec, which mixes nodes and tags into a hybrid network. Firstly, for tag networks, we define semantic distance as the proximity between tags and design a novel strategy, parameterized random walk, to generate context with semantic and hierarchical information of tags adaptively. Then, we propose hyperbolic Skip-gram model to express the complex hierarchical structure better with lower output dimensions. We evaluate our model on the NBER U.S. patent dataset and WordNet dataset. The results show that our model can learn tag representations with rich semantic information and it outperforms other baselines.

It is not clear how to target patients who are most likely to benefit from digital care management programs ex-ante, a shortcoming of current risk score based approaches. This study focuses on defining impactability by identifying those patients most likely to benefit from technology enabled care management, delivered through a digital health platform, including a mobile app and clinician web dashboard. Anonymized insurance claims data were used from a commercially insured population across several U.S. states and combined with inferred sociodemographic data and data derived from the patient-held mobile application itself. Our approach involves the creation of two models and the comparative analysis of the methodologies and performances therein. We first train a cost prediction model to calculate the differences in predicted (without intervention) versus actual (with onboarding onto digital health platform) healthcare expenditure for patients (N = 1,242). This enables the classification of impactability if differences in predicted versus actual costs meet a predetermined threshold. A random forest machine learning model was then trained to accurately categorize new patients as impactable versus not impactable, reaching an overall accuracy of 71.9%. We then modify these parameters through grid search to define the parameters that deliver optimal performance. A roadmap is proposed to iteratively improve the performance of the model. As the number of newly onboarded patients and length of use continues to increase, the accuracy of predicting impactability will improve commensurately as more advanced machine learning techniques such as deep learning become relevant. This approach is generalizable to analyzing the impactability of any intervention and is a key component of realising closed loop feedback systems for continuous improvement in healthcare.

We introduce a novel personalized Gaussian Process Experts (pGPE) model for predicting per-subject ADAS-Cog13 cognitive scores -- a significant predictor of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in the cognitive domain -- over the future 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. We start by training a population-level model using multi-modal data from previously seen subjects using a base Gaussian Process (GP) regression. Then, we personalize this model by adapting the base GP sequentially over time to a new (target) subject using domain adaptive GPs, and also by training subject-specific GP. While we show that these models achieve improved performance when selectively applied to the forecasting task (one performs better than the other on different subjects/visits), the average performance per model is suboptimal. To this end, we used the notion of meta learning in the proposed pGPE to design a regression-based weighting of these expert models, where the expert weights are optimized for each subject and his/her future visit. The results on a cohort of subjects from the ADNI dataset show that this newly introduced personalized weighting of the expert models leads to large improvements in accurately forecasting future ADAS-Cog13 scores and their fine-grained changes associated with the AD progression. This approach has potential to help identify at-risk patients early and improve the construction of clinical trials for AD.