This paper describes a prototype system that integrates social media analysis into the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). This integration allows the collection of social media data to be automatically triggered by flood risk warnings determined by a hydro-meteorological model. Then, we adopt a multi-lingual approach to find flood-related messages by employing two state-of-the-art methodologies: language-agnostic word embeddings and language-aligned word embeddings. Both approaches can be used to bootstrap a classifier of social media messages for a new language with little or no labeled data. Finally, we describe a method for selecting relevant and representative messages and displaying them back in the interface of EFAS.

Modeling strategic conflict from a game theoretical perspective involves dealing with epistemic uncertainty. Payoff uncertainty models are typically restricted to simple probability models due to computational restrictions. Recent breakthroughs Artificial Intelligence (AI) research applied to Poker have resulted in novel approximation approaches such as counterfactual regret minimization, that can successfully deal with large-scale imperfect games. By drawing from these ideas, this work addresses the problem of arbitrary continuous payoff distributions. We propose a method, Harsanyi-Counterfactual Regret Minimization, to solve two-player zero-sum extensive-form games with arbitrary payoff distribution models. Given a game $\Gamma$, using a Harsanyi transformation we generate a new game $\Gamma^\#$ to which we later apply Counterfactual Regret Minimization to obtain $\varepsilon$-Nash equilibria. We include numerical experiments showing how the method can be applied to a previously published problem.

A great deal of attention has been recently given to Machine Learning (ML) techniques in many different application fields. This paper provides a vision of what ML can do in Power Line Communications (PLC). We firstly and briefly describe classical formulations of ML, and distinguish deterministic problems from statistical problems with relevance to communications. We then discuss ML applications in PLC for each layer, namely, for characterization and modeling, for physical layer algorithms, for media access control and networking algorithms. Finally, other applications of PLC that can benefit from the usage of ML, as grid diagnostics, are analyzed. Illustrative numerical examples are reported to serve the purpose of validating the ideas and motivate future research endeavors in this stimulating signal/data processing field.

Contributions: Prior studies on education have mostly followed the model of the cross sectional study, namely, examining the pretest and the posttest scores. This paper shows that students' knowledge throughout the intervention can be estimated by time series analysis using a hidden Markov model. Background: Analyzing time series and the interaction between the students and the game data can result in valuable information that cannot be gained by only cross sectional studies of the exams. Research Questions: Can a hidden Markov model be used to analyze the educational games? Can a hidden Markov model be used to make a prediction of the students' performance? Methodology: The study was conducted on (N=854) students who played the Save Patch game. Students were divided into class 1 and class 2. Class 1 students are those who scored lower in the test than class 2 students. The analysis is done by choosing various features of the game as the observations. Findings: The state trajectories can predict the students' performance accurately for both class 1 and class 2.

Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) are popular machine learning algorithms with implementations such as LightGBM and in popular machine learning toolkits like Scikit-Learn. Many implementations can only produce trees in an offline manner and in a greedy manner. We explore ways to convert existing GBDT implementations to known neural network architectures with minimal performance loss in order to allow decision splits to be updated in an online manner and provide extensions to allow splits points to be altered as a neural architecture search problem. We provide learning bounds for our neural network.

We present a transductive deep learning-based formulation for the sparse representation-based classification (SRC) method. The proposed network consists of a convolutional autoencoder along with a fully-connected layer. The role of the autoencoder network is to learn robust deep features for classification. On the other hand, the fully-connected layer, which is placed in between the encoder and the decoder networks, is responsible for finding the sparse representation. The estimated sparse codes are then used for classification. Various experiments on three different datasets show that the proposed network leads to sparse representations that give better classification results than state-of-the-art SRC methods. The source code is available at: github.com/mahdiabavisani/DSRC.

Machine learning has been widely applied to various applications, some of which involve training with privacy-sensitive data. A modest number of data breaches have been studied, including credit card information in natural language data and identities from face dataset. However, most of these studies focus on supervised learning models. As deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been deployed in a number of real-world systems, such as indoor robot navigation, whether trained DRL policies can leak private information requires in-depth study. To explore such privacy breaches in general, we mainly propose two methods: environment dynamics search via genetic algorithm and candidate inference based on shadow policies. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate such privacy vulnerabilities in DRL under various settings. We leverage the proposed algorithms to infer floor plans from some trained Grid World navigation DRL agents with LiDAR perception. The proposed algorithm can correctly infer most of the floor plans and reaches an average recovery rate of 95.83% using policy gradient trained agents. In addition, we are able to recover the robot configuration in continuous control environments and an autonomous driving simulator with high accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to investigate privacy leakage in DRL settings and we show that DRL-based agents do potentially leak privacy-sensitive information from the trained policies.

The use of target networks has been a popular and key component of recent deep Q-learning algorithms for reinforcement learning, yet little is known from the theory side. In this work, we introduce a new family of target-based temporal difference (TD) learning algorithms and provide theoretical analysis on their convergences. In contrast to the standard TD-learning, target-based TD algorithms maintain two separate learning parameters-the target variable and online variable. Particularly, we introduce three members in the family, called the averaging TD, double TD, and periodic TD, where the target variable is updated through an averaging, symmetric, or periodic fashion, mirroring those techniques used in deep Q-learning practice. We establish asymptotic convergence analyses for both averaging TD and double TD and a finite sample analysis for periodic TD. In addition, we also provide some simulation results showing potentially superior convergence of these target-based TD algorithms compared to the standard TD-learning. While this work focuses on linear function approximation and policy evaluation setting, we consider this as a meaningful step towards the theoretical understanding of deep Q-learning variants with target networks.

In the quest to align deep learning with the sciences to address calls for rigor, safety, and interpretability in machine learning systems, this contribution identifies key missing pieces: the stages of hypothesis formulation and testing, as well as statistical and systematic uncertainty estimation -- core tenets of the scientific method. This position paper discusses the ways in which contemporary science is conducted in other domains and identifies potentially useful practices. We present a case study from physics and describe how this field has promoted rigor through specific methodological practices, and provide recommendations on how machine learning researchers can adopt these practices into the research ecosystem. We argue that both domain-driven experiments and application-agnostic questions of the inner workings of fundamental building blocks of machine learning models ought to be examined with the tools of the scientific method, to ensure we not only understand effect, but also begin to understand cause, which is the raison d'\^{e}tre of science.

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models still show many differences compared with observations. Machine learning has been applied to solve certain prediction problems with great success, and recently it's been proposed that this could replace the role of physically-derived dynamical weather and climate models to give better quality simulations. Here, instead, a framework using machine learning together with physically-derived models is tested, in which it is learnt how to correct the errors of the latter from timestep to timestep. This maintains the physical understanding built into the models, whilst allowing performance improvements, and also requires much simpler algorithms and less training data. This is tested in the context of simulating the chaotic Lorenz '96 system, and it is shown that the approach yields models that are stable and that give both improved skill in initialised predictions and better long-term climate statistics. Improvements in long-term statistics are smaller than for single time-step tendencies, however, indicating that it would be valuable to develop methods that target improvements on longer time scales. Future strategies for the development of this approach and possible applications to making progress on important scientific problems are discussed.