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Optimal Control of Complex Systems through Variational Inference with a Discrete Event Decision Process
Complex social systems are composed of interconnected individuals whose interactions result in group behaviors. Optimal control of a real-world complex system has many applications, including road traffic management, epidemic prevention, and information dissemination. However, such real-world complex system control is difficult to achieve because of high-dimensional and non-linear system dynamics, and the exploding state and action spaces for the decision maker. Prior methods can be divided into two categories: simulation-based and analytical approaches. Existing simulation approaches have high-variance in Monte Carlo integration, and the analytical approaches suffer from modeling inaccuracy. We adopted simulation modeling in specifying the complex dynamics of a complex system, and developed analytical solutions for searching optimal strategies in a complex network with high-dimensional state-action space. To capture the complex system dynamics, we formulate the complex social network decision making problem as a discrete event decision process. To address the curse of dimensionality and search in high-dimensional state action spaces in complex systems, we reduce control of a complex system to variational inference and parameter learning, introduce Bethe entropy approximation, and develop an expectation propagation algorithm. Our proposed algorithm leads to higher system expected rewards, faster convergence, and lower variance of value function in a real-world transportation scenario than state-of-the-art analytical and sampling approaches.
Design Space Exploration via Answer Set Programming Modulo Theories
The design of embedded systems, that are ubiquitously used in mobile devices and cars, is becoming continuously more complex such that efficient system-level design methods are becoming crucial. My research aims at developing systems that help the designer express the complex design problem in a declarative way and explore the design space to obtain divers sets of solutions with desirable properties. To that end, we employ knowledge representation and reasoning capabilities of ASP in combination with background theories. As a result, for the first time, we proposed a sophisticated methodology that allows for the direct integration of multi-objective optimization of non-linear objectives into ASP. This includes unique results of diverse sub-problems covered in several publications which I will present in this work.
Interval Valued Trapezoidal Neutrosophic Set for Prioritization of Non-functional Requirements
This paper discusses the trapezoidal fuzzy number(TrFN); Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number(IVIFN); neutrosophic set and its operational laws; and, trapezoidal neutrosophic set(TrNS) and its operational laws. Based on the combination of IVIFN and TrNS, an Interval Valued Trapezoidal Neutrosophic Set (IVTrNS) is proposed followed by its operational laws. The paper also presents the score and accuracy functions for the proposed Interval Valued Trapezoidal Neutrosophic Number (IVTrNN). Then, an interval valued trapezoidal neutrosophic weighted arithmetic averaging (IVTrNWAA) operator is introduced to combine the trapezoidal information which is neutrosophic and in the unit interval of real numbers. Finally, a method is developed to handle the problems in the multi attribute decision making(MADM) environment using IVTrNWAA operator followed by a numerical example of NFRs prioritization to illustrate the relevance of the developed method.
Cyber-All-Intel: An AI for Security related Threat Intelligence
Mittal, Sudip, Joshi, Anupam, Finin, Tim
Keeping up with threat intelligence is a must for a security analyst today. There is a volume of information present in `the wild' that affects an organization. We need to develop an artificial intelligence system that scours the intelligence sources, to keep the analyst updated about various threats that pose a risk to her organization. A security analyst who is better `tapped in' can be more effective. In this paper we present, Cyber-All-Intel an artificial intelligence system to aid a security analyst. It is a system for knowledge extraction, representation and analytics in an end-to-end pipeline grounded in the cybersecurity informatics domain. It uses multiple knowledge representations like, vector spaces and knowledge graphs in a 'VKG structure' to store incoming intelligence. The system also uses neural network models to pro-actively improve its knowledge. We have also created a query engine and an alert system that can be used by an analyst to find actionable cybersecurity insights.
Learned human-agent decision-making, communication and joint action in a virtual reality environment
Pilarski, Patrick M., Butcher, Andrew, Johanson, Michael, Botvinick, Matthew M., Bolt, Andrew, Parker, Adam S. R.
Humans make decisions and act alongside other humans to pursue both short-term and long-term goals. As a result of ongoing progress in areas such as computing science and automation, humans now also interact with nonhuman agents of varying complexity as part of their day-to-day activities; substantial work is being done to integrate increasingly intelligent machine agents into human work and play. With increases in the cognitive, sensory, and motor capacity of these agents, intelligent machinery for human assistance can now reasonably be considered to engage in joint action with humans--i.e., two or more agents adapting their behaviour and their understanding of each other so as to progress in shared objectives or goals. The mechanisms, conditions, and opportunities for skillful joint action in human-machine partnerships is of great interest to multiple communities. Despite this, human-machine joint action is as yet underexplored, especially in cases where a human and an intelligent machine interact in a persistent way during the course of real-time, daily-life experience (as opposed to specialized, episodic, or time-limited settings such as game play, teaching, or task-focused personal computing applications). In this work, we contribute a virtual reality environment wherein a human and an agent can adapt their predictions, their actions, and their communication so as to pursue a simple foraging task. In a case study with a single participant, we provide an example of human-agent coordination and decision-making involving prediction learning on the part of the human and the machine agent, and control learning on the part of the machine agent wherein audio communication signals are used to cue its human partner in service of acquiring shared reward. These comparisons suggest the utility of studying human-machine coordination in a virtual reality environment, and identify further research that will expand our understanding of persistent human-machine joint action.
Autonomous Open-Ended Learning of Interdependent Tasks
Santucci, Vieri Giuliano, Cartoni, Emilio, da Silva, Bruno Castro, Baldassarre, Gianluca
Autonomy is fundamental for artificial agents acting in complex real-world scenarios. The acquisition of many different skills is pivotal to foster versatile autonomous behaviour and thus a main objective for robotics and machine learning. Intrinsic motivations have proven to properly generate a task-agnostic signal to drive the autonomous acquisition of multiple policies in settings requiring the learning of multiple tasks. However, in real-world scenarios tasks may be interdependent so that some of them may constitute the precondition for learning other ones. Despite different strategies have been used to tackle the acquisition of interdependent/hierarchical tasks, fully autonomous open-ended learning in these scenarios is still an open question. Building on previous research within the framework of intrinsically-motivated open-ended learning, we propose an architecture for robot control that tackles this problem from the point of view of decision making, i.e. treating the selection of tasks as a Markov Decision Process where the system selects the policies to be trained in order to maximise its competence over all the tasks. The system is then tested with a humanoid robot solving interdependent multiple reaching tasks.
Forest Representation Learning Guided by Margin Distribution
Lv, Shen-Huan, Yang, Liang, Zhou, Zhi-Hua
In recent years, deep neural networks have achieved excellent performance in many application scenarios such as face recognition and automatic speech recognition (ASR) [21]. However, deep neural networks are difficult to be interpreted. This defect severely restricts the development of deep learning in a few application scenarios, where the model's interpretability is needed. Moreover, the deep neural networks are very data-hungry due to the large complexity of the models, which means that the model's performance can decrease significantly when the size of the training data decreases [12, 22]. In many real tasks, due to the high cost of data collection and labeling, the amount of labeled training data may be insufficient to train a deep neural network. In such a situation, traditional learning methods such as random forest (R.F.) [3], gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) [15, 5], support-vector machines (SVMs) [7], etc., are still good choices. By realizing that the essence of deep learning lies in the layer-by-layer processing, in-model feature transformation, and sufficient model complexity [33], recently Zhou and Feng [32] proposed the deep forest model and the gcForest algorithm to achieve forest representation learning. It can achieve excellent performance on a broad range of tasks, and can even perform well on small or middle-scale of data. Later on, a more efficient improvement was presented [24], and it shows that forest is able to do auto-encoder which thought to be a specialty of neural networks [13].
Understanding attention in graph neural networks
Knyazev, Boris, Taylor, Graham W., Amer, Mohamed R.
We aim to better understand attention over nodes in graph neural networks and identify factors influencing its effectiveness. Motivated by insights from the work on Graph Isomorphism Networks (Xu et al., 2019), we design simple graph reasoning tasks that allow us to study attention in a controlled environment. We find that under typical conditions the effect of attention is negligible or even harmful, but under certain conditions it provides an exceptional gain in performance of more than 40% in some of our classification tasks. However, we have yet to satisfy these conditions in practice.
Uncertainty-Aware Data Aggregation for Deep Imitation Learning
Cui, Yuchen, Isele, David, Niekum, Scott, Fujimura, Kikuo
Estimating statistical uncertainties allows autonomous agents to communicate their confidence during task execution and is important for applications in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving. In this work, we present the uncertainty-aware imitation learning (UAIL) algorithm for improving end-to-end control systems via data aggregation. UAIL applies Monte Carlo Dropout to estimate uncertainty in the control output of end-to-end systems, using states where it is uncertain to selectively acquire new training data. In contrast to prior data aggregation algorithms that force human experts to visit sub-optimal states at random, UAIL can anticipate its own mistakes and switch control to the expert in order to prevent visiting a series of sub-optimal states. Our experimental results from simulated driving tasks demonstrate that our proposed uncertainty estimation method can be leveraged to reliably predict infractions. Our analysis shows that UAIL outperforms existing data aggregation algorithms on a series of benchmark tasks.
Interpretable Outcome Prediction with Sparse Bayesian Neural Networks in Intensive Care
Popkes, Anna-Lena, Overweg, Hiske, Ercole, Ari, Li, Yingzhen, Hernández-Lobato, José Miguel, Zaykov, Yordan, Zhang, Cheng
Clinical decision making is challenging because of pathological complexity, as well as large amounts of heterogeneous data generated as part of routine clinical care. In recent years, machine learning tools have been developed to aid this process. Intensive care unit (ICU) admissions represent the most data dense and time-critical patient care episodes. In this context, prediction models may help clinicians determine which patients are most at risk and prioritize care. However, flexible tools such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) suffer from a lack of interpretability limiting their acceptability to clinicians. In this work, we propose a novel interpretable Bayesian neural network architecture which offers both the flexibility of ANNs and interpretability in terms of feature selection. In particular, we employ a sparsity inducing prior distribution in a tied manner to learn which features are important for outcome prediction. We evaluate our approach on the task of mortality prediction using two real-world ICU cohorts. In collaboration with clinicians we found that, in addition to the predicted outcome results, our approach can provide novel insights into the importance of different clinical measurements. This suggests that our model can support medical experts in their decision making process.