A critical decision point when training predictors using multiple studies is whether these studies should be combined or treated separately. We compare two multi-study learning approaches in the presence of potential heterogeneity in predictor-outcome relationships across datasets. We consider 1) merging all of the datasets and training a single learner, and 2) cross-study learning, which involves training a separate learner on each dataset and combining the resulting predictions. In a linear regression setting, we show analytically and confirm via simulation that merging yields lower prediction error than cross-study learning when the predictor-outcome relationships are relatively homogeneous across studies. However, as heterogeneity increases, there exists a transition point beyond which cross-study learning outperforms merging. We provide analytic expressions for the transition point in various scenarios and study asymptotic properties.

Traditionally, psychophysical experiments are conducted by repeated measurements on a few well-trained participants under well-controlled conditions, often resulting in, if done properly, high quality data. In recent years, however, crowdsourcing platforms are becoming increasingly popular means of data collection, measuring many participants at the potential cost of obtaining data of worse quality. In this paper we study whether the use of comparison-based (ordinal) data, combined with machine learning algorithms, can boost the reliability of crowdsourcing studies for psychophysics, such that they can achieve performance close to a lab experiment. To this end, we compare three setups: simulations, a psychophysics lab experiment, and the same experiment on Amazon Mechanical Turk. All these experiments are conducted in a comparison-based setting where participants have to answer triplet questions of the form "is object x closer to y or to z?". We then use machine learning to solve the triplet prediction problem: given a subset of triplet questions with corresponding answers, we predict the answer to the remaining questions. Considering the limitations and noise on MTurk, we find that the accuracy of triplet prediction is surprisingly close---but not equal---to our lab study.

As global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a form of solar geoengineering, is increasingly considered in order to artificially mitigate climate change effects. However, initial research in simulation suggests that naive SAI can have catastrophic regional consequences, which may induce serious geostrategic conflicts. Current geo-engineering research treats SAI control in low-dimensional approximation only. We suggest treating SAI as a high-dimensional control problem, with policies trained according to a context-sensitive reward function within the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) paradigm. In order to facilitate training in simulation, we suggest to emulate HadCM3, a widely used General Circulation Model, using deep learning techniques. We believe this is the first application of DRL to the climate sciences.

This paper proposes a theoretical analysis of one approach to the eXplainable AI (XAI) problem, using post-hoc explanation-by-example, that relies on the twinning of artificial neural networks (ANNs) with case-based reasoning (CBR) systems; so-called ANN-CBR twins. It surveys these systems to advance a new theoretical interpretation of previous work and define a road map for CBR's further role in XAI. A systematic survey of 1102 papers was conducted to identify a fragmented literature on this topic and trace its influence to more recent work involving deep neural networks (DNNs). The twin-system approach is advanced as one possible coherent, generic solution to the XAI problem. The paper concludes by road-mapping future directions for this XAI solution, considering (i) further tests of feature-weighting techniques, (ii) how explanatory cases might be deployed (e.g., in counterfactuals, a fortori cases), and (iii) the unwelcome, much-ignored issue of user evaluation.

This paper presents a novel approach to AUV localization, based on a semantic-aided particle filter. Particle filters have been used successfully for robotics localization since many years. Most of the approaches are however based on geometric measurements and geometric information and simulations. In the past years more and more efforts from research goes towards cognitive robotics and the marine domain is not exception. Moving from signal to symbol becomes therefore paramount for more complex applications. This paper presents a contribution in the well-known area of underwater localization, incorporating semantic information. An extension to the standard particle filter approach is presented, based on semantic information of the environment. A comparison with the geometric approach shows the advantages of a semantic layer to successfully perform self-localization.

Health-related data is noisy and stochastic in implying the true physiological states of patients, limiting information contained in single-moment observations for sequential clinical decision making. We model patient-clinician interactions as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) and optimize sequential treatment based on belief states inferred from history sequence. To facilitate inference, we build a variational generative model and boost state representation with a recurrent neural network (RNN), incorporating an auxiliary loss from sequence auto-encoding. Meanwhile, we optimize a continuous policy of drug levels with an actor-critic method where policy gradients are obtained from a stablized off-policy estimate of advantage function, with the value of belief state backed up by parallel best-first suffix trees. We exploit our methodology in optimizing dosages of vasopressor and intravenous fluid for sepsis patients using a retrospective intensive care dataset and evaluate the learned policy with off-policy policy evaluation (OPPE). The results demonstrate that modelling as POMDPs yields better performance than MDPs, and that incorporating heuristic search improves sample efficiency.

One of the most challenging types of ill-posedness in global optimization is the presence of insensitivity regions in design parameter space, so the identification of their shape will be crucial, if ill-posedness is irrecoverable. Such problems may be solved using global stochastic search followed by post-processing of a local sample and a local objective approximation. We propose a new approach of this type composed of Hierarchic Memetic Strategy (HMS) powered by the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolutionary Strategy (CMA-ES) well-known as an effective, self-adaptable stochastic optimization algorithm and we leverage the distribution density knowledge it accumulates to better identify and separate insensitivity regions. The results of benchmarks prove that the improved HMS-CMA-ES strategy is effective in both the total computational cost and the accuracy of insensitivity region approximation. The reference data for the tests was obtained by means of a well-known effective strategy of multimodal stochastic optimization called the Niching Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (NEA2), that also uses CMA-ES as a component.

The post-modern novel 'Wittgenstein's Mistress' by David Markson (1988) presents the reader with a very challenging non linear narrative, that itself appears to one of the novel's themes. We present a distant reading of this work designed to complement a close reading of it by David Foster Wallace (1990). Using a combination of text analysis, entity recognition and networks, we plot repetitive structures in the novel's narrative relating them to its critical analysis.

We assume that we are given a time series of data from a dynamical system and our task is to learn the flow map of the dynamical system. We present a collection of results on how to enforce constraints coming from the dynamical system in order to accelerate the training of deep neural networks to represent the flow map of the system as well as increase their predictive ability. In particular, we provide ways to enforce constraints during training for all three major modes of learning, namely supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning. In general, the dynamic constraints need to include terms which are analogous to memory terms in model reduction formalisms. Such memory terms act as a restoring force which corrects the errors committed by the learned flow map during prediction. For supervised learning, the constraints are added to the objective function. For the case of unsupervised learning, in particular generative adversarial networks, the constraints are introduced by augmenting the input of the discriminator. Finally, for the case of reinforcement learning and in particular actor-critic methods, the constraints are added to the reward function. In addition, for the reinforcement learning case, we present a novel approach based on homotopy of the action-value function in order to stabilize and accelerate training. We use numerical results for the Lorenz system to illustrate the various constructions.

We present a dynamical system framework for understanding Nesterov's accelerated gradient method. In contrast to earlier work, our derivation does not rely on a vanishing step size argument. We show that Nesterov acceleration arises from discretizing an ordinary differential equation with a semi-implicit Euler integration scheme. We analyze both the underlying differential equation as well as the discretization to obtain insights into the phenomenon of acceleration. The analysis suggests that a curvature-dependent damping term lies at the heart of the phenomenon. We further establish connections between the discretized and the continuous-time dynamics.