We present a new algorithm based on an gradient ascent for a general Active Exploration bandit problem in the fixed confidence setting. This problem encompasses several well studied problems such that the Best Arm Identification or Thresholding Bandits. It consists of a new sampling rule based on an online lazy mirror ascent. We prove that this algorithm is asymptotically optimal and, most importantly, computationally efficient.

Automated prediction of public speaking performance enables novel systems for tutoring public speaking skills. We use the largest open repository---TED Talks---to predict the ratings provided by the online viewers. The dataset contains over 2200 talk transcripts and the associated meta information including over 5.5 million ratings from spontaneous visitors to the website. We carefully removed the bias present in the dataset (e.g., the speakers' reputations, popularity gained by publicity, etc.) by modeling the data generating process using a causal diagram. We use a word sequence based recurrent architecture and a dependency tree based recursive architecture as the neural networks for predicting the TED talk ratings. Our neural network models can predict the ratings with an average F-score of 0.77 which largely outperforms the competitive baseline method.

Historically, the theory of probability emerged from the efforts of Pascal and Fermat in the 1650s to solve problems posed by a gambler, Chevalier de Méré (Rényi, 1972; Devlin, 2008), and reached its current form in Kolmogorov, 1933. Remarkably, not even highly experienced gamblers can extract high precision probability estimates from observed data: one of de Méré's questions concerned comparing the probabilities of getting at least one 6 in four rolls of one die (p 0.5177) and getting at least one double-6 in 24 throws of a pair of dice (p 0.4914). Four decades later, Samuel Pepys is asking Newton to discern the difference between at least two 6s when 12 dice are rolled (p 0.6187) and at least 3 6s when 18 dice are rolled (p 0.5973). In this paper we make this phenomenon, the very limited ability of people to deal with probabilities, the focal point of our inquiry. These limitations, we will argue, go beyond the well understood limits of numerosity (Dehaene, 1997), and touch upon areas such as cognitive limits of deduction (Kracht, 2011) and default inheritance (Etherington, 1987). We will offer a model of the naive/commonsensical theory of probability. In Section 2 we discuss likeliness, which we take to be a valuation of propositions on a discrete (seven-point) scale. In Section 3 we turn to the inference mechanism supported by the naive theory, akin to Jeffreys-style probability updates. In Section 4 we briefly sketch the background theory and discuss what we take to be the central concern, learnability.

Nowadays, Machine Learning (ML) is seen as the universal solution to improve the effectiveness of information retrieval (IR) methods. However, while mathematics is a precise and accurate science, it is usually expressed by less accurate and imprecise descriptions, contributing to the relative dearth of machine learning applications for IR in this domain. Generally, mathematical documents communicate their knowledge with an ambiguous, context-dependent, and non-formal language. Given recent advances in ML, it seems canonical to apply ML techniques to represent and retrieve mathematics semantically. In this work, we apply popular text embedding techniques to the arXiv collection of STEM documents and explore how these are unable to properly understand mathematics from that corpus. In addition, we also investigate the missing aspects that would allow mathematics to be learned by computers.

While research on iterated revision is predominant in the field of iterated belief change, the class of iterated contraction operators received more attention in recent years. In this article, we examine a non-prioritized generalisation of iterated contraction. In particular, the class of weak decrement operators is introduced, which are operators that by multiple steps achieve the same as a contraction. Inspired by Darwiche and Pearl's work on iterated revision the subclass of decrement operators is defined. For both, decrement and weak decrement operators, postulates are presented and for each of them a representation theorem in the framework of total preorders is given. Furthermore, we present two types of decrement operators which have a unique representative.

Software analytics can be improved by surveying; i.e. rechecking and (possibly) revising the labels offered by prior analysis. Surveying is a time-consuming task and effective surveyors must carefully manage their time. Specifically, they must balance the cost of further surveying against the additional benefits of that extra effort. This paper proposes SURVEY0, an incremental Logistic Regression estimation method that implements cost/benefit analysis. Some classifier is used to rank the as-yet-unvisited examples according to how interesting they might be. Humans then review the most interesting examples, after which their feedback is used to update an estimator for estimating how many examples are remaining. This paper evaluates SURVEY0 in the context of self-admitted technical debt. As software project mature, they can accumulate "technical debt" i.e. developer decisions which are sub-optimal and decrease the overall quality of the code. Such decisions are often commented on by programmers in the code; i.e. it is self-admitted technical debt (SATD). Recent results show that text classifiers can automatically detect such debt. We find that we can significantly outperform prior results by SURVEYing the data. Specifically, for ten open-source JAVA projects, we can find 83% of the technical debt via SURVEY0 using just 16% of the comments (and if higher levels of recall are required, SURVEY0can adjust towards that with some additional effort).

Concrete is the most widely used engineered material in the world with more than 10 billion tons produced annually. Unfortunately, with that scale comes a significant burden in terms of energy, water, and release of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. As such, there is interest in creating concrete formulas that minimize this environmental burden, while satisfying engineering performance requirements. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have enabled machines to generate highly plausible artifacts, such as images of realistic looking faces. Semi-supervised generative models allow generation of artifacts with specific, desired characteristics. In this work, we use Conditional Variational Autoencoders (CVAE), a type of semi-supervised generative model, to discover concrete formulas with desired properties. Our model is trained using open data from the UCI Machine Learning Repository joined with environmental impact data computed using a web-based tool. We demonstrate CVAEs can design concrete formulas with lower emissions and natural resource usage while meeting design requirements. To ensure fair comparison between extant and generated formulas, we also train regression models to predict the environmental impacts and strength of discovered formulas. With these results, a construction engineer may create a formula that meets structural needs and best addresses local environmental concerns.

Advanced attack campaigns span across multiple stages and stay stealthy for long time periods. There is a growing trend of attackers using off-the-shelf tools and pre-installed system applications (such as \emph{powershell} and \emph{wmic}) to evade the detection because the same tools are also used by system administrators and security analysts for legitimate purposes for their routine tasks. To start investigations, event logs can be collected from operational systems; however, these logs are generic enough and it often becomes impossible to attribute a potential attack to a specific attack group. Recent approaches in the literature have used anomaly detection techniques, which aim at distinguishing between malicious and normal behavior of computers or network systems. Unfortunately, anomaly detection systems based on point anomalies are too rigid in a sense that they could miss the malicious activity and classify the attack, not an outlier. Therefore, there is a research challenge to make better detection of malicious activities. To address this challenge, in this paper, we leverage Group Anomaly Detection (GAD), which detects anomalous collections of individual data points. Our approach is to build a neural network model utilizing Adversarial Autoencoder (AAE-$\alpha$) in order to detect the activity of an attacker who leverages off-the-shelf tools and system applications. In addition, we also build \textit{Behavior2Vec} and \textit{Command2Vec} sentence embedding deep learning models specific for feature extraction tasks. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate our models on real-world datasets collected for a period of two months. The empirical results demonstrate that our approach is effective and robust in discovering targeted attacks, pen-tests, and attack campaigns leveraging custom tools.

In this paper, we present work in progress on activity recognition and prediction in real homes using either binary sensor data or depth video data. We present our field trial and set-up for collecting and storing the data, our methods, and our current results. We compare the accuracy of predicting the next binary sensor event using probabilistic methods and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, include the time information to improve prediction accuracy, as well as predict both the next sensor event and its mean time of occurrence using one LSTM model. We investigate transfer learning between apartments and show that it is possible to pre-train the model with data from other apartments and achieve good accuracy in a new apartment straight away. In addition, we present preliminary results from activity recognition using low-resolution depth video data from seven apartments, and classify four activities - no movement, standing up, sitting down, and TV interaction - by using a relatively simple processing method where we apply an Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter to extract movements from the frames prior to feeding them to a convolutional LSTM network for the classification.

Graph-based clustering has shown promising performance in many tasks. A key step of graph-based approach is the similarity graph construction. In general, learning graph in kernel space can enhance clustering accuracy due to the incorporation of nonlinearity. However, most existing kernel-based graph learning mechanisms is not similarity-preserving, hence leads to sub-optimal performance. To overcome this drawback, we propose a more discriminative graph learning method which can preserve the pairwise similarities between samples in an adaptive manner for the first time. Specifically, we require the learned graph be close to a kernel matrix, which serves as a measure of similarity in raw data. Moreover, the structure is adaptively tuned so that the number of connected components of the graph is exactly equal to the number of clusters. Finally, our method unifies clustering and graph learning which can directly obtain cluster indicators from the graph itself without performing further clustering step. The effectiveness of this approach is examined on both single and multiple kernel learning scenarios in several datasets.