Excessive reuse of test data has become commonplace in today's machine learning workflows. Popular benchmarks, competitions, industrial scale tuning, among other applications, all involve test data reuse beyond guidance by statistical confidence bounds. Nonetheless, recent replication studies give evidence that popular benchmarks continue to support progress despite years of extensive reuse. We proffer a new explanation for the apparent longevity of test data: Many proposed models are similar in their predictions and we prove that this similarity mitigates overfitting. Specifically, we show empirically that models proposed for the ImageNet ILSVRC benchmark agree in their predictions well beyond what we can conclude from their accuracy levels alone. Likewise, models created by large scale hyperparameter search enjoy high levels of similarity. Motivated by these empirical observations, we give a non-asymptotic generalization bound that takes similarity into account, leading to meaningful confidence bounds in practical settings.

In this paper, we provide a method to learn the directed structure of a Bayesian network using data. The data is accessed by making conditional probability queries to a black-box model. We introduce a notion of simplicity of representation of conditional probability tables for the nodes in the Bayesian network, that we call "low rankness". We connect this notion to the Fourier transformation of real valued set functions and propose a method which learns the exact directed structure of a `low rank` Bayesian network using very few queries. We formally prove that our method correctly recovers the true directed structure, runs in polynomial time and only needs polynomial samples with respect to the number of nodes. We also provide further improvements in efficiency if we have access to some observational data.

A disentangled representation encodes information about the salient factors of variation in the data independently. Although it is often argued that this representational format is useful in learning to solve many real-world up-stream tasks, there is little empirical evidence that supports this claim. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale study that investigates whether disentangled representations are more suitable for abstract reasoning tasks. Using two new tasks similar to Raven's Progressive Matrices, we evaluate the usefulness of the representations learned by 360 state-of-the-art unsupervised disentanglement models. Based on these representations, we train 3600 abstract reasoning models and observe that disentangled representations do in fact lead to better up-stream performance. In particular, they appear to enable quicker learning using fewer samples.

System identification of complex and nonlinear systems is a central problem for model predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning. Despite their complexity, such systems can often be approximated well by a set of linear dynamical systems if broken into appropriate subsequences. This mechanism not only helps us find good approximations of dynamics, but also gives us deeper insight into the underlying system. Leveraging Bayesian inference, Variational Autoencoders and Concrete relaxations, we show how to learn a richer and more meaningful state space, e.g. encoding joint constraints and collisions with walls in a maze, from partial and high-dimensional observations. This representation translates into a gain of accuracy of learned dynamics showcased on various simulated tasks.

Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is difficult to interpret, which reduces their usefulness to policymakers. In this paper, we introduce an approach that allows one to treat a large class of population-based epidemiology simulators as probabilistic generative models. This is achieved by hijacking the internal random number generator calls, through the use of a universal probabilistic programming system (PPS). In contrast to other methods, our approach can be easily retrofitted to simulators written in popular industrial programming frameworks. We demonstrate that our method can be used for interpretable introspection and inference, thus shedding light on black-box simulators. This reinstates much-needed trust between policymakers and evidence-based methods.

We present a multi-task learning formulation for Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), describing a multi-kernel architecture for DGP layers. The proposed model is a non-linear mixture of latent Gaussian processes (GPs) with components shared between the tasks, in addition to separate task-specific components. Our formulation allows for learning complex relationships between tasks. We benchmark our model on three real-world datasets showing empirically that our formulation is able to improve the learning performance and transfer information between the tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art GP-based single-task learning and multi-task learning models.

We investigate probabilistic decoupling of labels supplied for training, from the underlying classes for prediction. Decoupling enables an inference scheme general enough to implement many classification problems, including supervised, semi-supervised, positive-unlabelled, noisy-label and suggests a general solution to the multi-positive-unlabelled learning problem. We test the method on the Fashion MNIST and 20 News Groups datasets for performance benchmarks, where we simulate noise, partial labelling etc.

Supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms are aimed at maximizing classification performance under available energy and storage constraints. They try to map the training data to the corresponding labels while ensuring generalizability to unseen data. However, they do not integrate meaning-based relationships among labels in the decision process. On the other hand, natural language processing (NLP) algorithms emphasize the importance of semantic information. In this paper, we synthesize the complementary advantages of supervised ML and natural language processing algorithms into one method that we refer to as SECRET (Semantically Enhanced Classification of REal-world Tasks). SECRET performs classifications by fusing the semantic information of the labels with the available data: it combines the feature space of the supervised algorithms with the semantic space of the NLP algorithms and predicts labels based on this joint space. Experimental results indicate that, compared to traditional supervised learning, SECRET achieves up to 13.9% accuracy and 13.5% F1 score improvements. Moreover, compared to ensemble methods, SECRET achieves up to 12.6% accuracy and 13.8% F1 score improvements. This points to a new research direction for supervised classification by incorporating semantic information.

In rank aggregation, preferences from different users are summarized into a total order under the homogeneous data assumption. Thus, model misspecification arises and rank aggregation methods take some noise models into account. However, they all rely on certain noise model assumptions and cannot handle agnostic noises in the real world. In this paper, we propose CoarsenRank, which rectifies the underlying data distribution directly and aligns it to the homogeneous data assumption without involving any noise model. To this end, we define a neighborhood of the data distribution over which Bayesian inference of CoarsenRank is performed, and therefore the resultant posterior enjoys robustness against model misspecification. Further, we derive a tractable closed-form solution for CoarsenRank making it computationally efficient. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CoarsenRank is fast and robust, achieving consistent improvement over baseline methods.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are omnipresent in sequence modeling tasks. Practical models usually consist of several layers of hundreds or thousands of neurons which are fully connected. This places a heavy computational and memory burden on hardware, restricting adoption in practical low-cost and low-power devices. Compared to fully convolutional models, the costly sequential operation of RNNs severely hinders performance on parallel hardware. This paper challenges the convention of full connectivity in RNNs. We study structurally sparse RNNs, showing that they are well suited for acceleration on parallel hardware, with a greatly reduced cost of the recurrent operations as well as orders of magnitude less recurrent weights. Extensive experiments on challenging tasks ranging from language modeling and speech recognition to video action recognition reveal that structurally sparse RNNs achieve competitive performance as compared to fully-connected networks. This allows for using large sparse RNNs for a wide range of real-world tasks that previously were too costly with fully connected networks.