Many methods for machine learning rely on approximate inference from intractable probability distributions. Variational inference approximates such distributions by tractable models that can be subsequently used for approximate inference. Learning sufficiently accurate approximations requires a rich model family and careful exploration of the relevant modes of the target distribution. We propose a method for learning accurate GMM approximations of intractable probability distributions based on insights from policy search by establishing information-geometric trust regions for principled exploration. For efficient improvement of the GMM approximation, we derive a lower bound on the corresponding optimization objective enabling us to update the components independently. The use of the lower bound ensures convergence to a local optimum of the original objective. The number of components is adapted online by adding new components in promising regions and by deleting components with negligible weight. We demonstrate on several domains that we can learn approximations of complex, multi-modal distributions with a quality that is unmet by previous variational inference methods, and that the GMM approximation can be used for drawing samples that are on par with samples created by state-of-the-art MCMC samplers while requiring up to three orders of magnitude less computational resources.

Studies on massive open online courses (MOOCs) users discuss the existence of typical profiles and their impact on the learning process of the students. However defining the typical behaviors as well as classifying the users accordingly is a difficult task. In this paper we suggest two methods to model MOOC users behaviour given their log data. We mold their behavior into a Markov Decision Process framework. We associate the user's intentions with the MDP reward and argue that this allows us to classify them.

Machine learning (ML) started to become widely deployed in cyber security settings for shortening the detection cycle of cyber attacks. To date, most ML-based systems are either proprietary or make specific choices of feature representations and machine learning models. The success of these techniques is difficult to assess as public benchmark datasets are currently unavailable. In this paper, we provide concrete guidelines and recommendations for using supervised ML in cyber security. As a case study, we consider the problem of botnet detection from network traffic data. Among our findings we highlight that: (1) feature representations should take into consideration attack characteristics; (2) ensemble models are well-suited to handle class imbalance; (3) the granularity of ground truth plays an important role in the success of these methods.

Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) has become a widely used optimization method for convex problems, particularly in the context of data mining in which large optimization problems are often encountered. ADMM has several desirable properties, including the ability to decompose large problems into smaller tractable sub-problems and ease of parallelization, that are essential in these scenarios. The most common form of ADMM is the two-block, in which two sets of primal variables are updated alternatingly. Recent years have seen advances in multi-block ADMM, which update more than two blocks of primal variables sequentially. In this paper, we study the empirical question: {\em Is two-block ADMM always comparable with sequential multi-block ADMM solving an equivalent problem?} In the context of optimization problems arising in multi-task learning, through a comprehensive set of experiments we surprisingly show that multi-block ADMM consistently outperformed two-block ADMM on optimization performance, and as a consequence on prediction performance, across all datasets and for the entire range of dual step sizes. Our results have an important practical implication: rather than simply using the popular two-block ADMM, one may considerably benefit from experimenting with multi-block ADMM applied to an equivalent problem.

We provide here a general mathematical framework to model attitudes towards ambiguity which uses the formalism of quantum theory as a "purely mathematical formalism, detached from any physical interpretation". We show that the quantum-theoretic framework enables modelling of the "Ellsberg paradox", but it also successfully applies to more concrete human decision-making (DM) tests involving financial, managerial and medical decisions. In particular, we provide a faithful mathematical representation of various empirical studies which reveal that attitudes of managers towards uncertainty shift from "ambiguity seeking" to "ambiguity aversion", and viceversa, thus exhibiting "hope effects" and "fear effects" in management decisions. The present framework provides a new bold and promising direction towards the development of a unified theory of decisions in the presence of uncertainty.

The Audio/Visual Emotion Challenge and Workshop (AVEC 2019) "State-of-Mind, Detecting Depression with AI, and Cross-cultural Affect Recognition" is the ninth competition event aimed at the comparison of multimedia processing and machine learning methods for automatic audiovisual health and emotion analysis, with all participants competing strictly under the same conditions. The goal of the Challenge is to provide a common benchmark test set for multimodal information processing and to bring together the health and emotion recognition communities, as well as the audiovisual processing communities, to compare the relative merits of various approaches to health and emotion recognition from real-life data. This paper presents the major novelties introduced this year, the challenge guidelines, the data used, and the performance of the baseline systems on the three proposed tasks: state-of-mind recognition, depression assessment with AI, and cross-cultural affect sensing, respectively.

Out-of-distribution (OoD) detection is a natural downstream task for deep generative models, due to their ability to learn the input probability distribution. There are mainly two classes of approaches for OoD detection using deep generative models, viz., based on likelihood measure and the reconstruction loss. However, both approaches are unable to carry out OoD detection effectively, especially when the OoD samples have smaller variance than the training samples. For instance, both flow based and VAE models assign higher likelihood to images from SVHN when trained on CIFAR-10 images. We use a recently proposed generative model known as neural rendering model (NRM) and derive metrics for OoD. We show that NRM unifies both approaches since it provides a likelihood estimate and also carries out reconstruction in each layer of the neural network. Among various measures, we found the joint likelihood of latent variables to be the most effective one for OoD detection. Our results show that when trained on CIFAR-10, lower likelihood (of latent variables) is assigned to SVHN images. Additionally, we show that this metric is consistent across other OoD datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to show consistently lower likelihood for OoD data with smaller variance with deep generative models.

The time series cluster kernel (TCK) provides a powerful tool for analysing multivariate time series subject to missing data. TCK is designed using an ensemble learning approach in which Bayesian mixture models form the base models. Because of the Bayesian approach, TCK can naturally deal with missing values without resorting to imputation and the ensemble strategy ensures robustness to hyperparameters, making it particularly well suited for unsupervised learning. However, TCK assumes missing at random and that the underlying missingness mechanism is ignorable, i.e. uninformative, an assumption that does not hold in many real-world applications, such as e.g. medicine. To overcome this limitation, we present a kernel capable of exploiting the potentially rich information in the missing values and patterns, as well as the information from the observed data. In our approach, we create a representation of the missing pattern, which is incorporated into mixed mode mixture models in such a way that the information provided by the missing patterns is effectively exploited. Moreover, we also propose a semi-supervised kernel, capable of taking advantage of incomplete label information to learn more accurate similarities. Experiments on benchmark data, as well as a real-world case study of patients described by longitudinal electronic health record data who potentially suffer from hospital-acquired infections, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) are powerful models for learning representations of attributed graphs.To scale GCNs to large graphs, state-of-the-art methods use various layer sampling techniques to alleviate the "neighbor explosion" problem during minibatch training. Here we proposeGraphSAINT, a graph sampling based inductive learning method that improves training efficiency in a fundamentally different way. By a change of perspective, GraphSAINT constructs minibatches by sampling the training graph, rather than the nodes or edges across GCN layers. Each iteration, a complete GCN is built from the properly sampled subgraph. Thus, we ensure fixed number of well-connected nodes in all layers. We further propose normalization technique to eliminate bias, and sampling algorithms for variance reduction. Importantly, we can decouple the sampling process from the forward and backward propagation of training, and extend GraphSAINT with other graph samplers and GCN variants. Comparing with strong baselines using layer sampling, GraphSAINT demonstrates superior performance in both accuracy and training time on four large graphs.

Much work aims to explain a model's prediction on a static input. We consider explanations in a temporal setting where a stateful dynamical model produces a sequence of risk estimates given an input at each time step. When the estimated risk increases, the goal of the explanation is to attribute the increase to a few relevant inputs from the past. While our formal setup and techniques are general, we carry out an in-depth case study in a clinical setting. The goal here is to alert a clinician when a patient's risk of deterioration rises. The clinician then has to decide whether to intervene and adjust the treatment. Given a potentially long sequence of new events since she last saw the patient, a concise explanation helps her to quickly triage the alert. We develop methods to lift static attribution techniques to the dynamical setting, where we identify and address challenges specific to dynamics. We then experimentally assess the utility of different explanations of clinical alerts through expert evaluation.