Robust machine learning relies on access to data that can be used with standardized frameworks in important tasks and the ability to develop models whose performance can be reasonably reproduced. In machine learning for healthcare, the community faces reproducibility challenges due to a lack of publicly accessible data and a lack of standardized data processing frameworks. We present MIMIC-Extract, an open-source pipeline for transforming raw electronic health record (EHR) data for critical care patients contained in the publicly-available MIMIC-III database into dataframes that are directly usable in common machine learning pipelines. MIMIC-Extract addresses three primary challenges in making complex health records data accessible to the broader machine learning community. First, it provides standardized data processing functions, including unit conversion, outlier detection, and aggregating semantically equivalent features, thus accounting for duplication and reducing missingness. Second, it preserves the time series nature of clinical data and can be easily integrated into clinically actionable prediction tasks in machine learning for health. Finally, it is highly extensible so that other researchers with related questions can easily use the same pipeline. We demonstrate the utility of this pipeline by showcasing several benchmark tasks and baseline results. These authors has an equal contribution, and should be considered co-first authors.

We study the problem of generating interesting endings for stories. Neural generative models have shown promising results for various text generation problems. Sequence to Sequence (Seq2Seq) models are typically trained to generate a single output sequence for a given input sequence. However, in the context of a story, multiple endings are possible. Seq2Seq models tend to ignore the context and generate generic and dull responses. Very few works have studied generating diverse and interesting story endings for a given story context. In this paper, we propose models which generate more diverse and interesting outputs by 1) training models to focus attention on important keyphrases of the story, and 2) promoting generation of non-generic words. We show that the combination of the two leads to more diverse and interesting endings.

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been widely used in minimizing the negative log likelihood (also known as cross entropy) of mixture models. However, little is understood about the goodness of the fixed points it converges to. In this paper, we study the regions where one component is missing in two-component mixture models, which we call one-cluster regions. We analyze the propensity of such regions to trap EM and gradient descent (GD) for mixtures of two Gaussians and mixtures of two Bernoullis. In the case of Gaussian mixtures, EM escapes one-cluster regions exponentially fast, while GD escapes them linearly fast. In the case of mixtures of Bernoullis, we find that there exist one-cluster regions that are stable for GD and therefore trap GD, but those regions are unstable for EM, allowing EM to escape. Those regions are local minima that appear universally in experiments and can be arbitrarily bad. This work implies that EM is less likely than GD to converge to certain bad local optima in mixture models.

Time-continuous dimensional descriptions of emotions (e.g., arousal, valence) allow researchers to characterize short-time changes and to capture long-term trends in emotion expression. However, continuous emotion labels are generally not synchronized with the input speech signal due to delays caused by reaction-time, which is inherent in human evaluations. To deal with this challenge, we introduce a new convolutional neural network (multi-delay sinc network) that is able to simultaneously align and predict labels in an end-to-end manner. The proposed network is a stack of convolutional layers followed by an aligner network that aligns the speech signal and emotion labels. This network is implemented using a new convolutional layer that we introduce, the delayed sinc layer. It is a time-shifted low-pass (sinc) filter that uses a gradient-based algorithm to learn a single delay. Multiple delayed sinc layers can be used to compensate for a non-stationary delay that is a function of the acoustic space. We test the efficacy of this system on two common emotion datasets, RECOLA and SEWA, and show that this approach obtains state-of-the-art speech-only results by learning time-varying delays while predicting dimensional descriptors of emotions.

Firms implementing digital advertising campaigns face a complex problem in determining the right match between their advertising creatives and target audiences. Typical solutions to the problem have leveraged non-experimental methods, or used "split-testing" strategies that have not explicitly addressed the complexities induced by targeted audiences that can potentially overlap with one another. This paper presents an adaptive algorithm that addresses the problem via online experimentation. The algorithm is set up as a contextual bandit and addresses the overlap issue by partitioning the target audiences into disjoint, non-overlapping sub-populations. It learns an optimal creative display policy in the disjoint space, while assessing in parallel which creative has the best match in the space of possibly overlapping target audiences. Experiments show that the proposed method is more efficient compared to naive "split-testing" or non-adaptive "A/B/n" testing based methods. We also describe a testing product we built that uses the algorithm. The product is currently deployed on the advertising platform of JD.com, an eCommerce company and a publisher of digital ads in China.

With the increase in the amount of data in many fields, a method to consistently and efficiently decipher relationships within high dimensional data sets is important. Because many modern datasets are high-dimensional, univariate independence tests are not applicable. While many multivariate independence tests have R packages available, the interfaces are inconsistent, most are not available in Python. mgcpy is an extensive Python library that includes many state of the art high-dimensional independence testing procedures using a common interface. The package is easy-to-use and is flexible enough to enable future extensions. This manuscript provides details for each of the tests as well as extensive power and run-time benchmarks on a suite of high-dimensional simulations previously used in different publications. The appendix includes demonstrations of how the user can interact with the package, as well as links and documentation.

Smart reply systems have been developed for various messaging platforms. In this paper, we introduce Uber's smart reply system: one-click-chat (OCC), which is a key enhanced feature on top of the Uber in-app chat system. It enables driver-partners to quickly respond to rider messages using smart replies. The smart replies are dynamically selected according to conversation content using machine learning algorithms. Our system consists of two major components: intent detection and reply retrieval, which are very different from standard smart reply systems where the task is to directly predict a reply. It is designed specifically for mobile applications with short and non-canonical messages. Reply retrieval utilizes pairings between intent and reply based on their popularity in chat messages as derived from historical data. For intent detection, a set of embedding and classification techniques are experimented with, and we choose to deploy a solution using unsupervised distributed embedding and nearest-neighbor classifier. It has the advantage of only requiring a small amount of labeled training data, simplicity in developing and deploying to production, and fast inference during serving and hence highly scalable. At the same time, it performs comparably with deep learning architectures such as word-level convolutional neural network. Overall, the system achieves a high accuracy of 76% on intent detection. Currently, the system is deployed in production for English-speaking countries and 71% of in-app communications between riders and driver-partners adopted the smart replies to speedup the communication process.

The assumption of positivity in causal inference (also known as common support and co-variate overlap) is necessary to obtain valid causal estimates. Therefore, confirming it holds in a given dataset is an important first step of any causal analysis. Most common methods to date are insufficient for discovering non-positivity, as they do not scale for modern high-dimensional covariate spaces, or they cannot pinpoint the subpopulation violating positivity. To overcome these issues, we suggest to harness decision trees for detecting violations. By dividing the covariate space into mutually exclusive regions, each with maximized homogeneity of treatment groups, decision trees can be used to automatically detect subspaces violating positivity. By augmenting the method with an additional random forest model, we can quantify the robustness of the violation within each subspace. This solution is scalable and provides an interpretable characterization of the subspaces in which violations occur. We provide a visualization of the stratification rules that define each subpopulation, combined with the severity of positivity violation within it. We also provide an interactive version of the visualization that allows a deeper dive into the properties of each subspace.

A key aspect of automating predictive machine learning entails the capability of properly triggering the update of the trained model. To this aim, suitable automatic solutions to self-assess the prediction quality and the data distribution drift between the original training set and the new data have to be devised. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to automatically detect prediction-quality degradation of machine learning models due to class-based concept drift, i.e., when new data contains samples that do not fit the set of class labels known by the currently-trained predictive model. Experiments on synthetic and real-world public datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in automatically detecting and describing concept drift caused by changes in the class-label data distributions.

A large number and diversity of techniques have been offered in the literature in recent years for solving multi-label classification tasks, including classifier chains where predictions are cascaded to other models as additional features. The idea of extending this chaining methodology to multi-output regression has already been suggested and trialed: regressor chains. However, this has so-far been limited to greedy inference and has provided relatively poor results compared to individual models, and of limited applicability. In this paper we identify and discuss the main limitations, including an analysis of different base models, loss functions, explainability, and other desiderata of real-world applications. To overcome the identified limitations we study and develop methods for regressor chains. In particular we present a sequential Monte Carlo scheme in the framework of a probabilistic regressor chain, and we show it can be effective, flexible and useful in several types of data. We place regressor chains in context in general terms of multi-output learning with continuous outputs, and in doing this shed additional light on classifier chains.