In this paper we propose an energy-efficient learning framework which exploits structural and functional similarities between a machine learning network and a general electrical network satisfying the Tellegen's theorem. The proposed formulation ensures that the network's active-power is dissipated only during the process of learning, whereas the network's reactive-power is maintained to be zero at all times. As a result, in steady-state, the learned parameters are stored and self-sustained by electrical resonance determined by the network's nodal inductances and capacitances. Based on this approach, this paper introduces three novel concepts: (a) A learning framework where the network's active-power dissipation is used as a regularization for a learning objective function that is subjected to zero total reactive-power constraint; (b) A dynamical system based on complex-domain, continuous-time growth transforms which optimizes the learning objective function and drives the network towards electrical resonance under steady-state operation; and (c) An annealing procedure that controls the trade-off between active-power dissipation and the speed of convergence. As a representative example, we show how the proposed framework can be used for designing resonant support vector machines (SVMs), where we show that the support-vectors correspond to an LC network with self-sustained oscillations. We also show that this resonant network dissipates less active-power compared to its non-resonant counterpart.

In machine learning applications for online product offerings and marketing strategies, there are often hundreds or thousands of features available to build such models. Feature selection is one essential method in such applications for multiple objectives: improving the prediction accuracy by eliminating irrelevant features, accelerating the model training and prediction speed, reducing the monitoring and maintenance workload for feature data pipeline, and providing better model interpretation and diagnosis capability. However, selecting an optimal feature subset from a large feature space is considered as an NP-complete problem. The mRMR (Minimum Redundancy and Maximum Relevance) feature selection framework solves this problem by selecting the relevant features while controlling for the redundancy within the selected features. This paper describes the approach to extend, evaluate, and implement the mRMR feature selection methods for classification problem in a marketing machine learning platform at Uber that automates creation and deployment of targeting and personalization models at scale. This study first extends the existing mRMR methods by introducing a non-linear feature redundancy measure and a model-based feature relevance measure. Then an extensive empirical evaluation is performed for eight different feature selection methods, using one synthetic dataset and three real-world marketing datasets at Uber to cover different use cases. Based on the empirical results, the selected mRMR method is implemented in production for the marketing machine learning platform. A description of the production implementation is provided and an online experiment deployed through the platform is discussed.

--Uplift modeling is an emerging machine learning approach for estimating the treatment effect at an individual or subgroup level. It can be used for optimizing the performance of interventions such as marketing campaigns and product designs. Uplift modeling can be used to estimate which users are likely to benefit from a treatment and then prioritize delivering or promoting the preferred experience to those users. An important but so far neglected use case for uplift modeling is an experiment with multiple treatment groups that have different costs, such as for example when different communication channels and promotion types are tested simultaneously. In this paper, we extend standard uplift models to support multiple treatment groups with different costs. We evaluate the performance of the proposed models using both synthetic and real data. We also describe a production implementation of the approach. Uplift modeling [1]-[8] is a technique to estimate and predict the individual-level or subgroup-level causal effects of different treatments in an experiment. This type of information is useful for designing and offering a personalized experience to improve user experience, satisfaction, and engagement. Uplift modeling is therefore commonly used in areas such as marketing, customer service, and product offering. It is helpful to think about uplift modeling in the context of randomized experiments (also known as A/B testing [9]-[11]). In a typical experiment, users are randomly assigned to each treatment group and causal effects are then estimated for the population.

We study the problem of end-to-end learning from complex multigraphs with potentially very large numbers of edges between two vertices, each edge labeled with rich information. Examples of such graphs include financial transactions, communication networks, or flights between airports. We propose Latent-Graph Convolutional Networks (L-GCNs), which can successfully propagate information from these edge labels to a latent adjacency tensor, after which further propagation and downstream tasks can be performed, such as node classification. We evaluate the performance of several variations of the model on two synthetic datasets simulating fraud in financial transaction networks, to ensure that the model must make use of edge labels in order to achieve good classification performance. We find that allowing for nonlinear interactions on a per-neighbor basis enhances performance significantly, while also showing promising results in an inductive setting.

A computer code can simulate a system's propagation of variation from random inputs to output measures of quality. Our aim here is to estimate a critical output tail probability or quantile without a large Monte Carlo experiment. Instead, we build a statistical surrogate for the input-output relationship with a modest number of evaluations and then sequentially add further runs, guided by a criterion to improve the estimate. We compare two criteria in the literature. Moreover, we investigate two practical questions: how to design the initial code runs and how to model the input distribution. Hence, we close the gap between the theory of sequential design and its application.

Multiple seasonal patterns play a key role in time series forecasting, especially for business time series where seasonal effects are often dramatic. Previous approaches including Fourier decomposition, exponential smoothing, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models do not reflect the distinct characteristics of each period in seasonal patterns, such as the unique behavior of specific days of the week in business data. We propose a multi-dimensional hierarchical model. Intermediate parameters for each seasonal period are first estimated, and a mixture of intermediate parameters is then taken, resulting in a model that successfully reflects the interactions between multiple seasonal patterns. Although this process reduces the data available for each parameter, a robust estimation can be obtained through a hierarchical Bayesian model implemented in Stan. Through this model, it becomes possible to consider both the characteristics of each seasonal period and the interactions among characteristics from multiple seasonal periods. Our new model achieved considerable improvements in prediction accuracy compared to previous models, including Fourier decomposition, which Prophet uses to model seasonality patterns. A comparison was performed on a real-world dataset of pallet transport from a national-scale logistic network.

This technical report records the experiments of applying multiple machine learning algorithms for predicting eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals. Data was collected with accelerometer, global positioning system (GPS), and body-worn cameras called SenseCam over a one week period in 81 individuals from a variety of ages and demographic backgrounds. These data were turned into minute-level features from sensors as well as engineered features that included time (e.g., time since last eating) and environmental context (e.g., distance to nearest grocery store). Algorithms include Logistic Regression, RBF-SVM, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting. Our results show that the Gradient Boosting model has the highest mean accuracy score (0.7289) for predicting eating events before 0 to 4 minutes. For predicting food purchasing events, the RBF-SVM model (0.7395) outperforms others. For both prediction models, temporal and spatial features were important contributors to predicting eating and food purchasing events.

Deep models have advanced prediction in many domains, but their lack of interpretability remains a key barrier to the adoption in many real world applications. There exists a large body of work aiming to help humans understand these black box functions to varying levels of granularity -- for example, through distillation, gradients, or adversarial examples. These methods however, all tackle interpretability as a separate process after training. In this work, we take a different approach and explicitly regularize deep models so that they are well-approximated by processes that humans can step-through in little time. Specifically, we train several families of deep neural networks to resemble compact, axis-aligned decision trees without significant compromises in accuracy. The resulting axis-aligned decision functions uniquely make tree regularized models easy for humans to interpret. Moreover, for situations in which a single, global tree is a poor estimator, we introduce a regional tree regularizer that encourages the deep model to resemble a compact, axis-aligned decision tree in predefined, human-interpretable contexts. Using intuitive toy examples as well as medical tasks for patients in critical care and with HIV, we demonstrate that this new family of tree regularizers yield models that are easier for humans to simulate than simpler L1 or L2 penalties without sacrificing predictive power.

--The use of fingerprinting localization techniques in outdoor IoT settings has started to gain popularity over the recent years. Communication signals of Low Power Wide Area Networks (LPW AN), such as LoRaW AN, are used to estimate the location of low power mobile devices. In this study, a publicly available dataset of LoRaW AN RSSI measurements is utilized to compare different machine learning methods and their accuracy in producing location estimates. The tested methods are: the k Nearest Neighbours method, the Extra Trees method and a neural network approach using a Multilayer Perceptron. T o facilitate the reproducibility of tests and the comparability of results, the code and the train/validation/test split of the dataset used in this study have become available. The neural network approach was the method with the highest accuracy, achieving a mean error of 358 meters and a median error of 204 meters. The proliferation of the usage of Internet-of-Things (IoT) technologies and Low Power Wide Area Networks (LPW AN), such as LoRaW AN or Sigfox, over the last decade has created a new landscape in the field of outdoor localization. Low power devices of LPW ANs cannot afford the battery consumption of a chip-set of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), such as the GPS. Therefore, an alternative approach is needed in order to localize these low power devices. The devices communicate with fixed basestations deployed in urban and rural areas through RF messages.

The initial analysis of any large data set can be divided into two phases: (1) the identification of common trends or patterns and (2) the identification of anomalies or outliers that deviate from those trends. We focus on the goal of detecting observations with novel content, which can alert us to artifacts in the data set or, potentially, the discovery of previously unknown phenomena. To aid in interpreting and diagnosing the novel aspect of these selected observations, we recommend the use of novelty detection methods that generate explanations. In the context of large image data sets, these explanations should highlight what aspect of a given image is new (color, shape, texture, content) in a human-comprehensible form. We propose DEMUD-VIS, the first method for providing visual explanations of novel image content by employing a convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract image features, a method that uses reconstruction error to detect novel content, and an up-convolutional network to convert CNN feature representations back into image space. We demonstrate this approach on diverse images from ImageNet, freshwater streams, and the surface of Mars.