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WATTNet: Learning to Trade FX via Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Representation of Highly Multivariate Time Series
Poli, Michael, Park, Jinkyoo, Ilievski, Ilija
Finance is a particularly challenging application area for deep learning models due to low noise-to-signal ratio, non-stationarity, and partial observability. Non-deliverable-forwards (NDF), a derivatives contract used in foreign exchange (FX) trading, presents additional difficulty in the form of long-term planning required for an effective selection of start and end date of the contract. In this work, we focus on tackling the problem of NDF tenor selection by leveraging high-dimensional sequential data consisting of spot rates, technical indicators and expert tenor patterns. To this end, we construct a dataset from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) NDF data that includes a comprehensive list of NDF volumes and daily spot rates for 64 FX pairs. We introduce WaveATTentionNet (WATTNet), a novel temporal convolution (TCN) model for spatio-temporal modeling of highly multivariate time series, and validate it across NDF markets with varying degrees of dissimilarity between the training and test periods in terms of volatility and general market regimes. The proposed method achieves a significant positive return on investment (ROI) in all NDF markets under analysis, outperforming recurrent and classical baselines by a wide margin. Finally, we propose two orthogonal interpretability approaches to verify noise stability and detect the driving factors of the learned tenor selection strategy.
Jointly Learning to Detect Emotions and Predict Facebook Reactions
Graziani, Lisa, Melacci, Stefano, Gori, Marco
The growing ubiquity of Social Media data offers an attractive perspective for improving the quality of machine learning-based models in several fields, ranging from Computer Vision to Natural Language Processing. In this paper we focus on Facebook posts paired with "reactions" of multiple users, and we investigate their relationships with classes of emotions that are typically considered in the task of emotion detection. We are inspired by the idea of introducing a connection between reactions and emotions by means of First-Order Logic formulas, and we propose an end-to-end neural model that is able to jointly learn to detect emotions and predict Facebook reactions in a multi-task environment, where the logic formulas are converted into polynomial constraints. Our model is trained using a large collection of unsupervised texts together with data labeled with emotion classes and Facebook posts that include reactions. An extended experimental analysis that leverages a large collection of Facebook posts shows that the tasks of emotion classification and reaction prediction can both benefit from their interaction.
Sign-OPT: A Query-Efficient Hard-label Adversarial Attack
Cheng, Minhao, Singh, Simranjit, Chen, Pin-Yu, Liu, Sijia, Hsieh, Cho-Jui
We study the most practical problem setup for evaluating adversarial robustness of a machine learning system with limited access: the hard-label black-box attack setting for generating adversarial examples, where limited model queries are allowed and only the decision is provided to a queried data input. Several algorithms have been proposed for this problem but they typically require huge amount (>20,000) of queries for attacking one example. Among them, one of the state-of-the-art approaches (Cheng et al., 2019) showed that hard-label attack can be modeled as an optimization problem where the objective function can be evaluated by binary search with additional model queries, thereby a zeroth order optimization algorithm can be applied. In this paper, we adopt the same optimization formulation but propose to directly estimate the sign of gradient at any direction instead of the gradient itself, which enjoys the benefit of single query. Using this single query oracle for retrieving sign of directional derivative, we develop a novel query-efficient Sign-OPT approach for hard-label black-box attack. We provide a convergence analysis of the new algorithm and conduct experiments on several models on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. We find that Sign-OPT attack consistently requires 5X to 10X fewer queries when compared to the current state-of-the-art approaches, and usually converges to an adversarial example with smaller perturbation.
Dimension Estimation Using Autoencoders
Bahadur, Nitish, Paffenroth, Randy
Dimension Estimation (DE) and Dimension Reduction (DR) are two closely related topics, but with quite different goals. In DE, one attempts to estimate the intrinsic dimensionality or number of latent variables in a set of measurements of a random vector. However, in DR, one attempts to project a random vector, either linearly or non-linearly, to a lower dimensional space that preserves the information contained in the original higher dimensional space. Of course, these two ideas are quite closely linked since, for example, doing DR to a dimension smaller than suggested by DE will likely lead to information loss. Accordingly, in this paper we will focus on a particular class of deep neural networks called autoencoders which are used extensively for DR but are less well studied for DE. We show that several important questions arise when using autoencoders for DE, above and beyond those that arise for more classic DR/DE techniques such as Principal Component Analysis. We address autoencoder architectural choices and regularization techniques that allow one to transform autoencoder latent layer representations into estimates of intrinsic dimension.
PAC Reinforcement Learning without Real-World Feedback
Zhong, Yuren, Deshmukh, Aniket Anand, Scott, Clayton
This work studies reinforcement learning in the Sim-to-Real setting, in which an agent is first trained on a number of simulators before being deployed in the real world, with the aim of decreasing the real-world sample complexity requirement. Using a dynamic model known as a rich observation Markov decision process (ROMDP), we formulate a theoretical framework for Sim-to-Real in the situation where feedback in the real world is not available. We establish real-world sample complexity guarantees that are smaller than what is currently known for directly (i.e., without access to simulators) learning a ROMDP with feedback.
Deep Universal Graph Embedding Neural Network
Learning powerful data embeddings has become a center piece in machine learning, especially in natural language processing and computer vision domains. The crux of these embeddings is that they are pretrained on huge corpus of data in a unsupervised fashion, sometimes aided with transfer learning. However currently in the graph learning domain, embeddings learned through existing graph neural networks (GNNs) are task dependent and thus cannot be shared across different datasets. In this paper, we present a first powerful and theoretically guaranteed graph neural network that is designed to learn task-independent graph embeddings, thereafter referred to as deep universal graph embedding (DUGNN). Our DUGNN model incorporates a novel graph neural network (as a universal graph encoder) and leverages rich Graph Kernels (as a multi-task graph decoder) for both unsupervised learning and (task-specific) adaptive supervised learning. By learning task-independent graph embeddings across diverse datasets, DUGNN also reaps the benefits of transfer learning. Through extensive experiments and ablation studies, we show that the proposed DUGNN model consistently outperforms both the existing state-of-art GNN models and Graph Kernels by an increased accuracy of 3% - 8% on graph classification benchmark datasets.
Deep Metric Learning using Similarities from Nonlinear Rank Approximations
Schall, Konstantin, Barthel, Kai Uwe, Hezel, Nico, Jung, Klaus
--In recent years, deep metric learning has achieved promising results in learning high dimensional semantic feature embeddings where the spatial relationships of the feature vectors match the visual similarities of the images. Similarity search for images is performed by determining the vectors with the smallest distances to a query vector . However, high retrieval quality does not depend on the actual distances of the feature vectors, but rather on the ranking order of the feature vectors from similar images. In this paper, we introduce a metric learning algorithm that focuses on identifying and modifying those feature vectors that most strongly affect the retrieval quality. We compute normalized approximated ranks and convert them to similarities by applying a nonlinear transfer function. These similarities are used in a newly proposed loss function that better contracts similar and disperses dissimilar samples. Experiments demonstrate significant improvement over existing deep feature embedding methods on the CUB-200-2011, Cars196, and Stanford Online Products data sets for all embedding sizes.
Renyi Differentially Private ADMM for Non-Smooth Regularized Optimization
In this paper we consider the problem of minimizing composite objective functions consisting of a convex differentiable loss function plus a non-smooth regularization term, such as $L_1$ norm or nuclear norm, under R\'enyi differential privacy (RDP). To solve the problem, we propose two stochastic alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithms: ssADMM based on gradient perturbation and mpADMM based on output perturbation. Both algorithms decompose the original problem into sub-problems that have closed-form solutions. The first algorithm, ssADMM, applies the recent privacy amplification result for RDP to reduce the amount of noise to add. The second algorithm, mpADMM, numerically computes the sensitivity of ADMM variable updates and releases the updated parameter vector at the end of each epoch. We compare the performance of our algorithms with several baseline algorithms on both real and simulated datasets. Experimental results show that, in high privacy regimes (small $\epsilon$), ssADMM and mpADMM outperform other baseline algorithms in terms of classification and feature selection performance, respectively.
GResNet: Graph Residual Network for Reviving Deep GNNs from Suspended Animation
The existing graph neural networks (GNNs) based on the spectral graph convolu-tional operator have been criticized for its performance degradation, which is especially common for the models with deep architectures. In this paper, we further identify the suspended animation problem with the existing GNNs. Such a problem happens when the model depth reaches the suspended animation limit, and the model will not respond to the training data any more and become not learn-able. Analysis about the causes of the suspended animation problem with existing GNNs will be provided in this paper, whereas several other peripheral factors that will impact the problem will be reported as well. Different from the other learning settings, the extensive connections in the graph data will render the existing simple residual learning methods fail to work. We prove the effectiveness of the introduced new graph residual terms from the norm preservation perspective, which will help avoid dramatic changes to the node's representations between sequential layers. Graph neural networks (GNN), e.g., graph convolutional network (GCN) Kipf & Welling (2016) and graph attention network (GAT) V eli ˇ ckovi c et al. (2018), based on the approximated spectral graph convolutional operator Hammond et al. (2011), can learn the representations of the graph data effectively. Meanwhile, such GNNs have also received lots of criticism, since as these GNNs' architectures go deep, the models' performance will get degraded, which is similar to observations on other deep models (e.g., convolutional neural network) as reported in He et al. (2015). Meanwhile, different from the existing deep models, when the GNN model depth reaches a certain limit (e.g., depth 5 for GCN with the bias term disabled or depth 8 for GCN with the bias term enabled on the Cora dataset), the model will not respond to the training data any more and become not learn-able.
Diversely Stale Parameters for Efficient Training of CNNs
Xu, An, Huo, Zhouyuan, Huang, Heng
The backpropagation algorithm is the most popular algorithm training neural networks nowadays. However, it suffers from the forward locking, backward locking and update locking problems, especially when a neural network is so large that its layers are distributed across multiple devices. Existing solutions either can only handle one locking problem or lead to severe accuracy loss or memory inefficiency. Moreover, none of them consider the straggler problem among devices. In this paper, we propose Layer-wise Staleness and a novel efficient training algorithm, Diversely Stale Parameters (DSP), which can address all these challenges without loss of accuracy nor memory issue. We also analyze the convergence of DSP with two popular gradient-based methods and prove that both of them are guaranteed to converge to critical points for non-convex problems. Finally, extensive experimental results on training deep convolutional neural networks demonstrate that our proposed DSP algorithm can achieve significant training speedup with stronger robustness and better generalization than compared methods.