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Probabilistic Forecasting using Deep Generative Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method tries to estimate the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere with a set of past observations that correspond to the best analogs of a deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This model post-processing method has been successfully used to improve the forecast accuracy for several weather-related applications including air quality, and short-term wind and solar power forecasting, to name a few. In order to provide a meaningful probabilistic forecast, the AnEn method requires storing a historical set of past predictions and observations in memory for a period of at least several months and spanning the seasons relevant for the prediction of interest. Although the memory and computing costs of the AnEn method are less expensive than using a brute-force dynamical ensemble approach, for a large number of stations and large datasets, the amount of memory required for AnEn can easily become prohibitive. Furthermore, in order to find the best analogs associated with a certain prediction produced by a NWP model, the current approach requires searching over the entire dataset by applying a certain metric. This approach requires applying the metric over the entire historical dataset, which may take a substantial amount of time. In this work, we investigate an alternative way to implement the AnEn method using deep generative models. By doing so, a generative model can entirely or partially replace the dataset of pairs of predictions and observations, reducing the amount of memory required to produce the probabilistic forecast by several orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the generative model can generate a meaningful set of analogs associated with a certain forecast in constant time without performing any search, saving a considerable amount of time even in the presence of huge historical datasets.


Unsupervised Universal Self-Attention Network for Graph Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Existing graph embedding models often have weaknesses in exploiting graph structure similarities, potential dependencies among nodes and global network properties. To this end, we present U2GAN, a novel unsupervised model leveraging on the strength of the recently introduced universal self-attention network (Dehghani et al., 2019), to learn low-dimensional embeddings of graphs which can be used for graph classification. In particular, given an input graph, U2GAN first applies a self-attention computation, which is then followed by a recurrent transition to iteratively memorize its attention on vector representations of each node and its neighbors across each iteration. Thus, U2GAN can address the weaknesses in the existing models in order to produce plausible node embeddings whose sum is the final embedding of the whole graph. Experimental results show that our unsupervised U2GAN produces new state-of-the-art performances on a range of well-known benchmark datasets for the graph classification task. It even outperforms supervised methods in most of benchmark cases.


A Radiomics Approach to Computer-Aided Diagnosis with Cardiac Cine-MRI

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Use expert visualization or conventional clinical indices can lack accuracy for borderline classications. Advanced statistical approaches based on eigen-decomposition have been mostly concerned with shape and motion indices. In this paper, we present a new approach to identify CVDs from cine-MRI by estimating large pools of radiomic features (statistical, shape and textural features) encoding relevant changes in anatomical and image characteristics due to CVDs. The calculated cine-MRI radiomic features are assessed using sequential forward feature selection to identify the most relevant ones for given CVD classes (e.g. myocardial infarction, cardiomyopathy, abnormal right ventricle). Finally, advanced machine learning is applied to suitably integrate the selected radiomics for final multi-feature classification based on Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The proposed technique was trained and cross-validated using 100 cine-MRI cases corresponding to five different cardiac classes from the ACDC MICCAI 2017 challenge \footnote{https://www.creatis.insa-lyon.fr/Challenge/acdc/index.html}. All cases were correctly classified in this preliminary study, indicating potential of using large-scale radiomics for MRI-based diagnosis of CVDs.


Mathematical Reasoning in Latent Space

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We design and conduct a simple experiment to study whether neural networks can perform several steps of approximate reasoning in a fixed dimensional latent space. The set of rewrites (i.e. transformations) that can be successfully performed on a statement represents essential semantic features of the statement. We can compress this information by embedding the formula in a vector space, such that the vector associated with a statement can be used to predict whether a statement can be rewritten by other theorems. Predicting the embedding of a formula generated by some rewrite rule is naturally viewed as approximate reasoning in the latent space. In order to measure the effectiveness of this reasoning, we perform approximate deduction sequences in the latent space and use the resulting embedding to inform the semantic features of the corresponding formal statement (which is obtained by performing the corresponding rewrite sequence using real formulas). Our experiments show that graph neural networks can make non-trivial predictions about the rewrite-success of statements, even when they propagate predicted latent representations for several steps. Since our corpus of mathematical formulas includes a wide variety of mathematical disciplines, this experiment is a strong indicator for the feasibility of deduction in latent space in general.


GAMIN: An Adversarial Approach to Black-Box Model Inversion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent works have demonstrated that machine learning models are vulnerable to model inversion attacks, which lead to the exposure of sensitive information contained in their training dataset. While some model inversion attacks have been developed in the past in the black-box attack setting, in which the adversary does not have direct access to the structure of the model, few of these have been conducted so far against complex models such as deep neural networks. In this paper, we introduce GAMIN (for Generative Adversarial Model INversion), a new black-box model inversion attack framework achieving significant results even against deep models such as convolutional neural networks at a reasonable computing cost. GAMIN is based on the continuous training of a surrogate model for the target model under attack and a generator whose objective is to generate inputs resembling those used to train the target model. The attack was validated against various neural networks used as image classifiers. In particular, when attacking models trained on the MNIST dataset, GAMIN is able to extract recognizable digits for up to 60% of labels produced by the target. Attacks against skin classification models trained on the pilot parliament dataset also demonstrated the capacity to extract recognizable features from the targets.


Adversarial Deep Embedded Clustering: on a better trade-off between Feature Randomness and Feature Drift

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Clustering using deep autoencoders has been thoroughly investigated in recent years. Current approaches rely on simultaneously learning embedded features and clustering the data points in the latent space. Although numerous deep clustering approaches outperform the shallow models in achieving favorable results on several high-semantic datasets, a critical weakness of such models has been overlooked. In the absence of concrete supervisory signals, the embedded clustering objective function may distort the latent space by learning from unreliable pseudo-labels. Thus, the network can learn non-representative features, which in turn undermines the discriminative ability, yielding worse pseudo-labels. In order to alleviate the effect of random discriminative features, modern autoencoder-based clustering papers propose to use the reconstruction loss for pretraining and as a regularizer during the clustering phase. Nevertheless, a clustering-reconstruction trade-off can cause the \textit{Feature Drift} phenomena. In this paper, we propose ADEC (Adversarial Deep Embedded Clustering) a novel autoencoder-based clustering model, which addresses a dual problem, namely, \textit{Feature Randomness} and \textit{Feature Drift}, using adversarial training. We empirically demonstrate the suitability of our model on handling these problems using benchmark real datasets. Experimental results validate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art autoencoder-based clustering methods.


Unsupervised Domain Adaptation through Self-Supervision

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper addresses unsupervised domain adaptation, the setting where labeled training data is available on a source domain, but the goal is to have good performance on a target domain with only unlabeled data. Like much of previous work, we seek to align the learned representations of the source and target domains while preserving discriminability. The way we accomplish alignment is by learning to perform auxiliary self-supervised task(s) on both domains simultaneously. Each self-supervised task brings the two domains closer together along the direction relevant to that task. Training this jointly with the main task classifier on the source domain is shown to successfully generalize to the unlabeled target domain. The presented objective is straightforward to implement and easy to optimize. We achieve state-of-the-art results on four out of seven standard benchmarks, and competitive results on segmentation adaptation. We also demonstrate that our method composes well with another popular pixel-level adaptation method. Visual distribution shifts are fundamental to our constantly evolving world. We humans face them all the time, e.g. when we navigate a foreign city, read text in a new font, or recognize objects in an environment we have never encountered before. These real-world challenges to the human visual perception have direct parallels in computer vision.


Model Imitation for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) aims to learn a dynamic model to reduce the number of interactions with real-world environments. However, due to estimation error, rollouts in the learned model, especially those of long horizon, fail to match the ones in real-world environments. This mismatching has seriously impacted the sample complexity of MBRL. The phenomenon can be attributed to the fact that previous works employ supervised learning to learn the one-step transition models, which has inherent difficulty ensuring the matching of distributions from multi-step rollouts. Based on the claim, we propose to learn the synthesized model by matching the distributions of multi-step rollouts sampled from the synthesized model and the real ones via WGAN. We theoretically show that matching the two can minimize the difference of cumulative rewards between the real transition and the learned one. Our experiments also show that the proposed model imitation method outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of sample complexity and average return.


A Mean-Field Theory for Kernel Alignment with Random Features in Generative Adversarial Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a novel supervised learning method to optimize the kernel in maximum mean discrepancy generative adversarial networks (MMD GANs). Specifically, we characterize a distributionally robust optimization problem to compute a good distribution for the random feature model of Rahimi and Recht to approximate a good kernel function. Due to the fact that the distributional optimization is infinite dimensional, we consider a Monte-Carlo sample average approximation (SAA) to obtain a more tractable finite dimensional optimization problem. We subsequently leverage a particle stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method to solve finite dimensional optimization problems. Based on a mean-field analysis, we then prove that the empirical distribution of the interactive particles system at each iteration of the SGD follows the path of the gradient descent flow on the Wasserstein manifold. We also establish the non-asymptotic consistency of the finite sample estimator. Our empirical evaluation on synthetic data-set as well as MNIST and CIFAR-10 benchmark data-sets indicates that our proposed MMD GAN model with kernel learning indeed attains higher inception scores well as Fr\`{e}chet inception distances and generates better images compared to the generative moment matching network (GMMN) and MMD GAN with untrained kernels.


LAVAE: Disentangling Location and Appearance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A BSTRACT We propose a probabilistic generative model for unsupervised learning of structured, interpretable, object-based representations of visual scenes. We use amortized variational inference to train the generative model end-to-end. The learned representations of object location and appearance are fully disentangled, and objects are represented independently of each other in the latent space. Unlike previous approaches that disentangle location and appearance, ours generalizes seam-lessly to scenes with many more objects than encountered in the training regime. We evaluate the proposed model on multi-MNIST and multidSprites data sets. 1 I NTRODUCTION Many hallmarks of human intelligence rely on the capability to perceive the world as a layout of distinct physical objects that endure through time--a skill that infants acquire in early childhood (Spelke, 1990; 2013; Spelke and Kinzler, 2007). Learning compositional, object-based representations of visual scenes, however, is still regarded as an open challenge for artificial systems (Ben-gio et al., 2013; Garnelo and Shanahan, 2019). Recently, there has been a growing interest in unsupervised learning of disentangled representations (Locatello et al., 2018), which should separate the distinct, informative factors of variations in the data, and contain all the information on the data in a compact, interpretable structure (Bengio et al., 2013). This notion is highly relevant in the context of visual scene representation learning, where distinct objects should arguably be represented in a disentangled fashion.