Refining one's hypotheses in the light of data is a commonplace scientific practice, however, this approach introduces selection bias and can lead to specious statistical analysis. One approach of addressing this phenomena is via conditioning on the selection procedure, i.e., how we have used the data to generate our hypotheses, and prevents information to be used again after selection. Many selective inference (a.k.a. post-selection inference) algorithms typically take this approach but will "over-condition" for sake of tractability. While this practice obtains well calibrated $p$-values, it can incur a major loss in power. In our work, we extend two recent proposals for selecting features using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy and Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion to condition on the minimal conditioning event. We show how recent advances in multiscale bootstrap makes conditioning on the minimal selection event possible and demonstrate our proposal over a range of synthetic and real world experiments. Our results show that our proposed test is indeed more powerful in most scenarios.

PROFET: Construction and Inference of DBNs Based on Mathematical Models Hamda Ajmal, Michael Madden and Catherine Enright School of Computer Science, National University of Ireland Galway h.ajmal1@nuigalway.ie, Abstract This paper presents, evaluates, and discusses a new software tool to automatically build Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) from ordinary differential equations (ODEs) entered by the user. The DBNs generated from ODE models can handle both data uncertainty and model uncertainty in a principled manner. The application, named PROFET, can be used for temporal data mining with noisy or missing variables. It enables automatic re-estimation of model parameters using temporal evidence in the form of data streams. For temporal inference, PROFET includes both standard fixed time step particle filtering and its extension, adaptive-time particle filtering algorithms. Adaptive-time particle filtering enables the DBN to automatically adapt its time step length to match the dynamics of the model. We demonstrate PROFET's functionality by using it to infer the model variables by estimating the model parameters of four benchmark ODE systems. From the generation of the DBN model to temporal inference, the entire process is automated and is delivered as an open-source platform-independent software application with a comprehensive user interface. PROFET is released under the Apache License 2.0. Its source code, executable and documentation are available at http:://profet.

A growing number of empirical studies suggest that negative advertising is effective in campaigning, while the mechanisms are rarely mentioned. With the scandal of Cambridge Analytica and Russian intervention behind the Brexit and the 2016 presidential election, people have become aware of the political ads on social media and have pressured congress to restrict political advertising on social media. Following the related legislation, social media companies began disclosing their political ads archive for transparency during the summer of 2018 when the midterm election campaign was just beginning. This research collects the data of the related political ads in the context of the U.S. midterm elections since August to study the overall pattern of political ads on social media and uses sets of machine learning methods to conduct sentiment analysis on these ads to classify the negative ads. A novel approach is applied that uses AI image recognition to study the image data. Through data visualization, this research shows that negative advertising is still the minority, Republican advertisers and third party organizations are more likely to engage in negative advertising than their counterparts. Based on ordinal regressions, this study finds that anger evoked information-seeking is one of the main mechanisms causing negative ads to be more engaging and effective rather than the negative bias theory. Overall, this study provides a unique understanding of political advertising on social media by applying innovative data science methods. Further studies can extend the findings, methods, and datasets in this study, and several suggestions are given for future research.

Many real-world graphs or networks are temporal, e.g., in a social network persons only interact at specific points in time. This information directs dissemination processes on the network, such as the spread of rumors, fake news, or diseases. However, the current state-of-the-art methods for supervised graph classification are designed mainly for static graphs and may not be able to capture temporal information. Hence, they are not powerful enough to distinguish between graphs modeling different dissemination processes. To address this, we introduce a framework to lift standard graph kernels to the temporal domain. Specifically, we explore three different approaches and investigate the trade-offs between loss of temporal information and efficiency. Moreover, to handle large-scale graphs, we propose stochastic variants of our kernels with provable approximation guarantees. We evaluate our methods on a wide range of real-world social networks. Our methods beat static kernels by a large margin in terms of accuracy while still being scalable to large graphs and data sets. Hence, we confirm that taking temporal information into account is crucial for the successful classification of dissemination processes.

Recent student knowledge modeling algorithms such as DKT and DKVMN have been shown to produce accurate predictions of problem correctness within the same learning system . However, these algorithms do not generate estimates of student knowledge. In this paper we present an extension that infers knowledge estimates from correctness predictions. We apply this extension to DKT and DKVMN, result ing in knowledge estimates that correlate better with a posttest than knowledge estimates produced by PFA or BKT. We also apply our extension to correctness predictions from PFA and BKT, finding that knowledge predictions produced with it correlate better with the posttest than BKT and PFA's own knowledge predictions. These findings are significant since the primary aim of education is to prepare students for later experiences outside of the immediate learning activity.

The effectiveness of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) has been substantially attributed to their built-in property of translation equivariance. However, CNNs do not have embedded mechanisms to handle other types of transformations. In this work, we pay attention to scale changes, which regularly appear in various tasks due to the changing distances between the objects and the camera. First, we introduce the general theory for building scale-equivariant convolutional networks with steerable filters. We develop scale-convolution and generalize other common blocks to be scale-equivariant. We demonstrate the computational efficiency and numerical stability of the proposed method. We compare the proposed models to the previously developed methods for scale equivariance and local scale invariance. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results on MNIST-scale dataset and on STL-10 dataset in supervised learning setting.

Federated learning is a new machine learning paradigm which allows data parties to build machine learning models collaboratively while keeping their data secure and private. While research efforts on federated learning have been growing tremendously in the past two years, most existing works still depend on pre-existing public datasets and artificial partitions to simulate data federations due to the lack of high-quality labeled data generated from real-world edge applications. Consequently, advances on benchmark and model evaluations for federated learning have been lagging behind. In this paper, we introduce a real-world image dataset. The dataset contains more than 900 images generated from 26 street cameras and 7 object categories annotated with detailed bounding box. The data distribution is non-IID and unbalanced, reflecting the characteristic real-world federated learning scenarios. Based on this dataset, we implemented two mainstream object detection algorithms (YOLO and Faster R-CNN) and provided an extensive benchmark on model performance, efficiency, and communication in a federated learning setting. Both the dataset and algorithms are made publicly available.

Colour vision has long fascinated scientists, who have sought to understand both the physiology of the mechanics of colour vision and the psychophysics of colour perception. We consider representations of colour in anatomically constrained convolutional deep neural networks. Following ideas from neuroscience, we classify cells in early layers into groups relating to their spectral and spatial functionality. We show the emergence of single and double opponent cells in our networks and characterise how the distribution of these cells changes under the constraint of a retinal bottleneck. Our experiments not only open up a new understanding of how deep networks process spatial and colour information, but also provide new tools to help understand the black box of deep learning. The code for all experiments is avaialable at \url{https://github.com/ecs-vlc/opponency}.

Classical supervised classification tasks search for a nonlinear mapping that maps each encoded feature directly to a probability mass over the labels. Such a learning framework typically lacks the intuition that encoded features from the same class tend to be similar and thus has little interpretability for the learned features. In this paper, we propose a novel supervised learning model named Supervised-Encoding Quantizer (SEQ). The SEQ applies a quantizer to cluster and classify the encoded features. We found that the quantizer provides an interpretable graph where each cluster in the graph represents a class of data samples that have a particular style. We also trained a decoder that can decode convex combinations of the encoded features from similar and different clusters and provide guidance on style transfer between sub-classes.

As one of the most ubiquitously applied unsupervised learning methods, clustering has also been known to have a few disadvantages. More specifically, parameters such as the number of clusters and neighborhood radius are what call the `unsupervised` nature of these algorithms into question. Moreover, the stochastic nature of a great number of these algorithms is also a considerable point of weakness. In order to address these issues, we propose DISCERN which can serve as an initialization algorithm for K-Means, finding suitable centroids that increase the performance of K-Means. Following that, the algorithm can estimate the number of clusters if need be. The algorithm does all of that, while maintaining complete robustness and returning the same results at each separate run. We ran experiments on the proposed method processing multiple datasets and the results show its undeniable superiority in terms of results, computational time and robustness when compared to the randomized K-Means and K-Means++ initialization. In addition, the superiority in estimating the number of clusters is also discussed and we prove the lower complexity when compared to methods such as the elbow and silhouette methods in estimating the number of clusters.