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Missing Not at Random in Matrix Completion: The Effectiveness of Estimating Missingness Probabilities Under a Low Nuclear Norm Assumption
Matrix completion is often applied to data with entries missing not at random (MNAR). For example, consider a recommendation system where users tend to only reveal ratings for items they like. In this case, a matrix completion method that relies on entries being revealed at uniformly sampled row and column indices can yield overly optimistic predictions of unseen user ratings. Recently, various papers have shown that we can reduce this bias in MNAR matrix completion if we know the probabilities of different matrix entries being missing. These probabilities are typically modeled using logistic regression or naive Bayes, which make strong assumptions and lack guarantees on the accuracy of the estimated probabilities. In this paper, we suggest a simple approach to estimating these probabilities that avoids these shortcomings. Our approach follows from the observation that missingness patterns in real data often exhibit low nuclear norm structure. We can then estimate the missingness probabilities by feeding the (always fully-observed) binary matrix specifying which entries are revealed or missing to an existing nuclear-norm-constrained matrix completion algorithm by Davenport et al. [2014]. Thus, we tackle MNAR matrix completion by solving a different matrix completion problem first that recovers missingness probabilities. We establish finite-sample error bounds for how accurate these probability estimates are and how well these estimates debias standard matrix completion losses for the original matrix to be completed. Our experiments show that the proposed debiasing strategy can improve a variety of existing matrix completion algorithms, and achieves downstream matrix completion accuracy at least as good as logistic regression and naive Bayes debiasing baselines that require additional auxiliary information.
Textual Data for Time Series Forecasting
Obst, David, Ghattas, Badih, Claudel, Sandra, Cugliari, Jairo, Goude, Yannig, Oppenheim, Georges
David Obst a,b, Badih Ghattas b, Sandra Claudel a, Jairo Cugliari c, Yannig Goude a, Georges Oppenheim d a EDF R&D, Palaiseau, France b Institut de Math ematiques de Marseille, Aix-Marseille Universit e, France c ERIC, Universit e de Lyon 2, France d Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Math ematiques Appliqu ees Universit e Paris-Est, Champs-sur-Marne, FranceAbstract While ubiquitous, textual sources of information such as company reports, social media posts, etc. are hardly included in prediction algorithms for time series, despite the relevant information they may contain. In this work, openly accessible daily weather reports from France and the United-Kingdom are leveraged to predict time series of national electricity consumption, average temperature and wind-speed with a single pipeline. Two methods of numerical representation of text are considered, namely traditional Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) as well as our own neural word embedding. Using exclusively text, we are able to predict the aforementioned time series with sufficient accuracy to be used to replace missing data. Furthermore the proposed word embeddings display geometric properties relating to the behavior of the time series and context similarity between words. Introduction Whether it is in the field of energy, finance or meteorology, accurately predicting the behavior of time series is nowadays of paramount importance for optimal decision making or profit. While the field of time series forecasting is extremely prolific from a research point-of-view, up to now it has narrowed its efforts on the exploitation of regular numerical features extracted from sensors, data bases or stock exchanges. Unstructured data such as text on the other hand remains underexploited for prediction tasks, despite its potentially valuable informative content. Empirical studies have already proven that textual sources such as news articles or blog entries can be correlated to stock exchange time series and have explanatory power for their variations [1, 2]. This observation has motivated multiple extensive experiments to extract relevant features from textual documents in different ways and use them for prediction, notably in the field of finance. In Lavrenko et al. [3], language models (considering only the presence of a word) are used to estimate the probability of trends such as surges or falls of 127 different stock values using articles from Biz Yahoo!. Their results show that this text driven approach could be used to make profit on the market. One of the most conventional ways for text representation is the TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency) approach.
Power analysis of knockoff filters for correlated designs
Liu, Jingbo, Rigollet, Philippe
The knockoff filter introduced by Barber and Cand\`es 2016 is an elegant framework for controlling the false discovery rate in variable selection. While empirical results indicate that this methodology is not too conservative, there is no conclusive theoretical result on its power. When the predictors are i.i.d. Gaussian, it is known that as the signal to noise ratio tend to infinity, the knockoff filter is consistent in the sense that one can make FDR go to 0 and power go to 1 simultaneously. In this work we study the case where the predictors have a general covariance matrix $\Sigma$. We introduce a simple functional called effective signal deficiency (ESD) of the covariance matrix $\Sigma$ that predicts consistency of various variable selection methods. In particular, ESD reveals that the structure of the precision matrix $\Sigma^{-1}$ plays a central role in consistency and therefore, so does the conditional independence structure of the predictors. To leverage this connection, we introduce Conditional Independence knockoff, a simple procedure that is able to compete with the more sophisticated knockoff filters and that is defined when the predictors obey a Gaussian tree graphical models (or when the graph is sufficiently sparse). Our theoretical results are supported by numerical evidence on synthetic data.
Modelling heterogeneous distributions with an Uncountable Mixture of Asymmetric Laplacians
Brando, Axel, Rodríguez-Serrano, Jose A., Vitrià, Jordi, Rubio, Alberto
In regression tasks, aleatoric uncertainty is commonly addressed by considering a parametric distribution of the output variable, which is based on strong assumptions such as symmetry, unimodality or by supposing a restricted shape. These assumptions are too limited in scenarios where complex shapes, strong skews or multiple modes are present. In this paper, we propose a generic deep learning framework that learns an Uncountable Mixture of Asymmetric Laplacians (UMAL), which will allow us to estimate heterogeneous distributions of the output variable and shows its connections to quantile regression. Despite having a fixed number of parameters, the model can be interpreted as an infinite mixture of components, which yields a flexible approximation for heterogeneous distributions. Apart from synthetic cases, we apply this model to room price forecasting and to predict financial operations in personal bank accounts. We demonstrate that UMAL produces proper distributions, which allows us to extract richer insights and to sharpen decision-making.
PRNet: Self-Supervised Learning for Partial-to-Partial Registration
We present a simple, flexible, and general framework titled Partial Registration Network (PRNet), for partial-to-partial point cloud registration. Inspired by recently-proposed learning-based methods for registration, we use deep networks to tackle non-convexity of the alignment and partial correspondence problems. While previous learning-based methods assume the entire shape is visible, PRNet is suitable for partial-to-partial registration, outperforming PointNetLK, DCP, and non-learning methods on synthetic data. PRNet is self-supervised, jointly learning an appropriate geometric representation, a keypoint detector that finds points in common between partial views, and keypoint-to-keypoint correspondences. We show PRNet predicts keypoints and correspondences consistently across views and objects. Furthermore, the learned representation is transferable to classification.
Stochastic Channel-Based Federated Learning for Medical Data Privacy Preserving
Shao, Rulin, He, Hongyu, Liu, Hui, Liu, Dianbo
Artificial neural network has achieved unprecedented success in the medical domain. This success depends on the availability of massive and representative datasets. However, data collection is often prevented by privacy concerns and people want to take control over their sensitive information during both training and using processes. To address this problem, we propose a privacy-preserving method for the distributed system, Stochastic Channel-Based Federated Learning (SCBF), which enables the participants to train a high-performance model cooperatively without sharing their inputs. Specifically, we design, implement and evaluate a channel-based update algorithm for the central server in a distributed system, which selects the channels with regard to the most active features in a training loop and uploads them as learned information from local datasets. A pruning process is applied to the algorithm based on the validation set, which serves as a model accelerator. In the experiment, our model presents better performances and higher saturating speed than the Federated Averaging method which reveals all the parameters of local models to the server when updating. We also demonstrate that the saturating rate of performance could be promoted by introducing a pruning process. And further improvement could be achieved by tuning the pruning rate. Our experiment shows that 57% of the time is saved by the pruning process with only a reduction of 0.0047 in AUCROC performance and a reduction of 0.0068 in AUCPR.
High dimensional regression for regenerative time-series: an application to road traffic modeling
Bouchouia, Mohammed, Portier, François
This paper investigates statistical models for road traffic modeling. The proposed methodology considers road traffic as a (i) highdimensional time-series for which (ii) regeneration occurs at the end of each day. Since (ii), prediction is based on a daily modeling of the road traffic using a vector autoregressive model that combines linearly the past observations of the day. Considering (i), the learning algorithm follows from an l1-penalization of the regression coefficients. Excess risk bounds are established under the high-dimensional framework in which the number of road sections goes to infinity with the number of observed days. Considering floating car data observed in an urban area, the approach is compared to state-of-the-art methods including neural networks. In addition of being very competitive in terms of prediction, it enables to identify the most determinant sections of the road network.
On Connections between Constrained Optimization and Reinforcement Learning
Vieillard, Nino, Pietquin, Olivier, Geist, Matthieu
Dynamic Programming (DP) provides standard algorithms to solve Markov Decision Processes. However, these algorithms generally do not optimize a scalar objective function. In this paper, we draw connections between DP and (constrained) convex optimization. Specifically, we show clear links in the algorithmic structure between three DP schemes and optimization algorithms. We link Conservative Policy Iteration to Frank-Wolfe, Mirror-Descent Modified Policy Iteration to Mirror Descent, and Politex (Policy Iteration Using Expert Prediction) to Dual Averaging. These abstract DP schemes are representative of a number of (deep) Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. By highlighting these connections (most of which have been noticed earlier, but in a scattered way), we would like to encourage further studies linking RL and convex optimization, that could lead to the design of new, more efficient, and better understood RL algorithms.
On Education Artificial Intelligence Developer with Avaya Zang - CouponED
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Machine Learning From Scratch
The purpose of this project is not to produce as optimized and computationally efficient algorithms as possible but rather to present the inner workings of them in a transparent and accessible way. Figure: Training progress of a regularized polynomial regression model fitting temperature data measured in Linköping, Sweden 2016. Figure: Shows how the network gets better during training at reconstructing the digit 2 in the MNIST dataset. Figure: Classification of the digit dataset by a neural network which has been evolutionary evolved.