We propose a regression algorithm that utilizes a learned dictionary optimized for sparse inference on D-Wave quantum annealer. In this regression algorithm, we concatenate the independent and dependent variables as an combined vector, and encode the high-order correlations between them into a dictionary optimized for sparse reconstruction. On a test dataset, the dependent variable is initialized to its average value and then a sparse reconstruction of the combined vector is obtained in which the dependent variable is typically shifted closer to its true value, as in a standard inpainting or denoising task. Here, a quantum annealer, which can presumably exploit a fully entangled initial state to better explore the complex energy landscape, is used to solve the highly non-convex sparse coding optimization problem. The regression algorithm is demonstrated for a lattice quantum chromodynamics simulation data using a D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealer and good prediction performance is achieved. The regression test is performed using six different values for the number of fully connected logical qubits, between 20 and 64, the latter being the maximum that can be embedded on the D-Wave 2000Q. The scaling results indicate that a larger number of qubits gives better prediction accuracy, the best performance being comparable to the best classical regression algorithms reported so far.

In the last decade, deep learning (DL) has outperformed model-based and statistical approaches in predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery in the context of condition-based maintenance. One of the major drawbacks of DL is that it heavily depends on a large amount of labeled data, which are typically expensive and time-consuming to obtain, especially in industrial applications. Scarce training data lead to uncertain estimates of the model's parameters, which in turn result in poor prognostic performance. Quantifying this parameter uncertainty is important in order to determine how reliable the prediction is. Traditional DL techniques such as neural networks are incapable of capturing the uncertainty in the training data, thus they are overconfident about their estimates. On the contrary, Bayesian deep learning has recently emerged as a promising solution to account for uncertainty in the training process, achieving state-of-the-art performance in many classification and regression tasks. In this work Bayesian DL techniques such as Bayesian dense neural networks and Bayesian convolutional neural networks are applied to RUL estimation and compared to their frequentist counterparts from the literature. The effectiveness of the proposed models is verified on the popular C-MAPSS dataset. Furthermore, parameter uncertainty is quantified and used to gain additional insight into the data.

The scattering transform is a multilayered wavelet-based deep learning architecture that acts as a model of convolutional neural networks. Recently, several works have introduced generalizations of the scattering transform for non-Euclidean settings such as graphs. Our work builds upon these constructions by introducing windowed and non-windowed graph scattering transforms based upon a very general class of asymmetric wavelets. We show that these asymmetric graph scattering transforms have many of the same theoretical guarantees as their symmetric counterparts. This work helps bridge the gap between scattering and other graph neural networks by introducing a large family of networks with provable stability and invariance guarantees. This lays the groundwork for future deep learning architectures for graph-structured data that have learned filters and also provably have desirable theoretical properties.

We use a novel modification of Multi-Armed Bandits to create a new model for recommendation systems. We model the recommendation system as a bandit seeking to maximize reward by pulling on arms with unknown rewards. The catch however is that this bandit can only access these arms through an unreliable intermediate that has some level of autonomy while choosing its arms. For example, in a streaming website the user has a lot of autonomy while choosing content they want to watch. The streaming sites can use targeted advertising as a means to bias opinions of these users. Here the streaming site is the bandit aiming to maximize reward and the user is the unreliable intermediate. We model the intermediate as accessing states via a Markov chain. The bandit is allowed to perturb this Markov chain. We prove fundamental theorems for this setting after which we show a close-to-optimal Explore-Commit algorithm.

-- Th e concordance probability or C - index is a popular measure to capture the discriminatory ability of a regression model. In this article, the definition of this measure is adapted to the specific needs of the frequency and severity model, typically used during the technical pricing of a non - li fe insuran ce product. Due to the typical large sample size of the frequency data in particular, two different adaptations of the estimation procedure of the concordance probability are presented. Note that the latter procedures can be applied to all differ ent versions of the concordance probability . When determining the premium of a non - life insurance product, such as a car insurance product, i ts technical tariff is mostly used as a starting point.

Due to their accuracies, methods based on ensembles of regression trees are a popular approach for making predictions. Some common examples include Bayesian additive regression trees, boosting and random forests. This paper focuses on honest random forests, which add honesty to the original form of random forests and are proved to have better statistical properties. The main contribution is a new method that quantifies the uncertainties of the estimates and predictions produced by honest random forests. The proposed method is based on the generalized fiducial methodology, and provides a fiducial density function that measures how likely each single honest tree is the true model. With such a density function, estimates and predictions, as well as their confidence/prediction intervals, can be obtained. The promising empirical properties of the proposed method are demonstrated by numerical comparisons with several state-of-the-art methods, and by applications to a few real data sets. Lastly, the proposed method is theoretically backed up by a strong asymptotic guarantee.

In this paper the problem of {\em learning} appropriate domain-specific bias is addressed. It is shown that this can be achieved by learning many related tasks from the same domain, and a theorem is given bounding the number tasks that must be learnt. A corollary of the theorem is that if the tasks are known to possess a common {\em internal representation} or {\em preprocessing} then the number of examples required per task for good generalisation when learning $n$ tasks simultaneously scales like $O(a + \frac{b}{n})$, where $O(a)$ is a bound on the minimum number of examples required to learn a single task, and $O(a + b)$ is a bound on the number of examples required to learn each task independently. An experiment providing strong qualitative support for the theoretical results is reported.

In this paper the problem of learning appropriate bias for an environment of related tasks is examined from a Bayesian perspective. The environment of related tasks is shown to be naturally modelled by the concept of an {\em objective} prior distribution. Sampling from the objective prior corresponds to sampling different learning tasks from the environment. It is argued that for many common machine learning problems, although we don't know the true (objective) prior for the problem, we do have some idea of a set of possible priors to which the true prior belongs. It is shown that under these circumstances a learner can use Bayesian inference to learn the true prior by sampling from the objective prior. Bounds are given on the amount of information required to learn a task when it is simultaneously learnt with several other tasks. The bounds show that if the learner has little knowledge of the true prior, and the dimensionality of the true prior is small, then sampling multiple tasks is highly advantageous.

Regularized least-squares (kernel-ridge / Gaussian process) regression is a fundamental algorithm of statistics and machine learning. Because generic algorithms for the exact solution have cubic complexity in the number of datapoints, large datasets require to resort to approximations. In this work, the computation of the least-squares prediction is itself treated as a probabilistic inference problem. We propose a structured Gaussian regression model on the kernel function that uses projections of the kernel matrix to obtain a low-rank approximation of the kernel and the matrix. A central result is an enhanced way to use the method of conjugate gradients for the specific setting of least-squares regression as encountered in machine learning. Our method improves the approximation of the kernel ridge regressor / Gaussian process posterior mean over vanilla conjugate gradients and, allows computation of the posterior variance and the log marginal likelihood (evidence) without further overhead.

A BSTRACT In probabilistic classification, a discriminative model based on Gaussian mixture exhibits flexible fitting capability. Nevertheless, it is difficult to determine the number of components. We propose a sparse classifier based on a discriminative Gaussian mixture model (GMM), which is named sparse discriminative Gaussian mixture (SDGM). In the SDGM, a GMM-based discriminative model is trained by sparse Bayesian learning. This learning algorithm improves the generalization capability by obtaining a sparse solution and automatically determines the number of components by removing redundant components. The SDGM can be embedded into neural networks (NNs) such as convolutional NNs and can be trained in an end-to-end manner. Experimental results indicated that the proposed method prevented overfitting by obtaining sparsity. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the proposed method outperformed a fully connected layer with the softmax function in certain cases when it was used as the last layer of a deep NN. 1 I NTRODUCTION In supervised classification, probabilistic classification is an approach that assigns a class label c to an input sample x by estimating the posterior probability P (c x).