In this work we investigate the relationship between kernel regularity and algorithmic performance in the bandit optimization of RKHS functions. While reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) methods traditionally rely on global kernel regressors, it is also common to use a smoothness-based approach that exploits local approximations. We show that these perspectives are deeply connected through the spectral properties of isotropic kernels. In particular, we characterize the Fourier spectra of the Matérn, square-exponential, rational-quadratic, $γ$-exponential, piecewise-polynomial, and Dirichlet kernels, and show that the decay rate determines asymptotic regret from both viewpoints. For kernelized bandit algorithms, spectral decay yields upper bounds on the maximum information gain, governing worst-case regret, while for smoothness-based methods, the same decay rates establish Hölder space embeddings and Besov space norm-equivalences, enabling local continuity analysis. These connections show that kernel-based and locally adaptive algorithms can be analyzed within a unified framework. This allows us to derive explicit regret bounds for each kernel family, obtaining novel results in several cases and providing improved analysis for others. Furthermore, we analyze LP-GP-UCB, an algorithm that combines both approaches, augmenting global Gaussian process surrogates with local polynomial estimators. While the hybrid approach does not uniformly dominate specialized methods, it achieves order-optimality across multiple kernel families.

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that "minimize information loss" from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

Deep neural networks often fail when deployed in real-world contexts due to distribution shift, a critical barrier to building safe and reliable systems. An emerging approach to address this problem relies on \emph{disagreement discrepancy} -- a measure of how the disagreement between two models changes under a shifting distribution. The process of maximizing this measure has seen applications in bounding error under shifts, testing for harmful shifts, and training more robust models. However, this optimization involves the non-differentiable zero-one loss, necessitating the use of practical surrogate losses. We prove that existing surrogates for disagreement discrepancy are not Bayes consistent, revealing a fundamental flaw: maximizing these surrogates can fail to maximize the true disagreement discrepancy. To address this, we introduce new theoretical results providing both upper and lower bounds on the optimality gap for such surrogates. Guided by this theory, we propose a novel disagreement loss that, when paired with cross-entropy, yields a provably consistent surrogate for disagreement discrepancy. Empirical evaluations across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that our method provides more accurate and robust estimates of disagreement discrepancy than existing approaches, particularly under challenging adversarial conditions.

We consider the fundamental problem of balanced $k$-means clustering. In particular, we introduce an optimal transport approach to alternating minimization called BalLOT, and we show that it delivers a fast and effective solution to this problem. We establish this with a variety of numerical experiments before proving several theoretical guarantees. First, we prove that for generic data, BalLOT produces integral couplings at each step. Next, we perform a landscape analysis to provide theoretical guarantees for both exact and partial recoveries of planted clusters under the stochastic ball model. Finally, we propose initialization schemes that achieve one-step recovery of planted clusters.

Accurate real-time waypoints estimation for the UAV-based online Terrain Following during wildfire patrol missions is critical to ensuring flight safety and enabling wildfire detection. However, existing real-time filtering algorithms struggle to maintain accurate waypoints under measurement noise in nonlinear and time-varying systems, posing risks of flight instability and missed wildfire detections during UAV-based terrain following. To address this issue, a Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter, guided by a Residual Variance Matching Estimation (RVME) criterion, is proposed to adaptively estimate the real-time waypoints of nonlinear, time-varying UAV-based terrain following systems. The proposed method is validated using a UAV-based online terrain following system within a simulated terrain environment. Experimental results show that the RVM-RLS filter improves waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88$\%$ compared with benchmark algorithms across multiple evaluation metrics. These findings demonstrate both the methodological advances in real-time filtering and the practical potential of the RVM-RLS filter for UAV-based online wildfire patrol.

In this paper, we propose a recurrent neural network (RNN)-based framework for estimating the parameters of the fractional Poisson process (FPP), which models event arrivals with memory and long-range dependence. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network estimates the key parameters $μ>0$ and $β\in(0,1)$ from sequences of inter-arrival times, effectively modeling their temporal dependencies. Our experiments on synthetic data show that the proposed approach reduces the mean squared error (MSE) by about 55.3\% compared to the traditional method of moments (MOM) and performs reliably across different training conditions. We tested the method on two real-world high-frequency datasets: emergency call records from Montgomery County, PA, and AAPL stock trading data. The results show that the LSTM can effectively track daily patterns and parameter changes, indicating its effectiveness on real-world data with complex time dependencies.

Analyzing decision problems under uncertainty commonly relies on idealizing assumptions about the describability of the world, with the most prominent examples being the closed world and the small world assumption. Most assumptions are operationalized by introducing states of the world, conditional on which the decision situation can be analyzed without any remaining uncertainty. Conversely, most classical decision-theoretic approaches are not applicable if the states of the world are inaccessible. We propose a decision model that retains the appeal and simplicity of the original theory, but completely overcomes the need to specify the states of the world explicitly. The main idea of our approach is to address decision problems in a radically empirical way: instead of specifying states and consequences prior to the decision analysis, we only assume a protocol of observed act--consequence pairs as model primitives. We show how optimality in such empirical decision problems can be addressed by using protocol-based empirical choice functions and discuss three approaches for deriving inferential guarantees: (I) consistent statistical estimation of choice sets, (II) consistent statistical testing of choice functions with robustness guarantees, and (III) direct inference for empirical choice functions using credal sets. We illustrate our theory with a proof-of-concept application comparing different prompting strategies in generative AI models.

Abstract--Semantic communication systems aim to transmit task-relevant information between devices capable of artificial intelligence, but their performance can degrade when heterogeneous transmitter-receiver models produce misaligned latent representations. Existing semantic alignment methods typically rely on additional digital processing at the transmitter or receiver, increasing overall device complexity. In this work, we introduce the first over-the-air semantic alignment framework based on stacked intelligent metasurfaces (SIM), which enables latent-space alignment directly in the wave domain, reducing substantially the computational burden at the device level. T o realize these operators physically, we develop a gradient-based optimization procedure that tailors the metasurface transfer function to a desired semantic mapping. Experiments with heterogeneous vision transformer (ViT) encoders show that SIMs can accurately reproduce both supervised and zero-shot semantic equalizers, achieving up to 90% task accuracy in regimes with high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), while maintaining strong robustness even at low SNR values.

Classical supervised learning evaluates models primarily via predictive risk on hold-out data. Such evaluations quantify how well a function behaves on a distribution, but they do not address whether the internal decomposition of a model is uniquely determined by the data and evaluation design. In this paper, we introduce \emph{Modular Jets} for regression and classification pipelines. Given a task manifold (input space), a modular decomposition, and access to module-level representations, we estimate empirical jets, which are local linear response maps that describe how each module reacts to small structured perturbations of the input. We propose an empirical notion of \emph{mirage} regimes, where multiple distinct modular decompositions induce indistinguishable jets and thus remain observationally equivalent, and contrast this with an \emph{identifiable} regime, where the observed jets single out a decomposition up to natural symmetries. In the setting of two-module linear regression pipelines we prove a jet-identifiability theorem. Under mild rank assumptions and access to module-level jets, the internal factorisation is uniquely determined, whereas risk-only evaluation admits a large family of mirage decompositions that implement the same input-to-output map. We then present an algorithm (MoJet) for empirical jet estimation and mirage diagnostics, and illustrate the framework using linear and deep regression as well as pipeline classification.

The main objective of this study is to propose an optimal transport based semi-supervised approach to learn from scarce labelled image data using deep convolutional networks. The principle lies in implicit graph-based transductive semi-supervised learning where the similarity metric between image samples is the Wasserstein distance. This metric is used in the label propagation mechanism during learning. We apply and demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a GNSS real life application. More specifically, we address the problem of multi-path interference detection. Experiments are conducted under various signal conditions. The results show that for specific choices of hyperparameters controlling the amount of semi-supervision and the level of sensitivity to the metric, the classification accuracy can be significantly improved over the fully supervised training method.