In both mobile and web applications, speeding up user interface response times can often lead to significant improvements in user engagement. A common technique to improve responsiveness is to precompute data ahead of time for specific features. However, simply precomputing data for all user and feature combinations is prohibitive at scale due to both network constraints and server-side computational costs. It is therefore important to accurately predict per-user feature usage in order to minimize wasted precomputation ("predictive precompute''). In this paper, we describe the novel application of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for predictive precompute. We compare their performance with traditional machine learning models, and share findings from their use in a billion-user scale production environment at Facebook. We demonstrate that RNN models improve prediction accuracy, eliminate most feature engineering steps, and reduce the computational cost of serving predictions by an order of magnitude.

Well begun is half done. In the crowdfunding market, the early fundraising performance of the project is a concerned issue for both creators and platforms. However, estimating the early fundraising performance before the project published is very challenging and still under-explored. To that end, in this paper, we present a focused study on this important problem in a market modeling view. Specifically, we propose a Graph-based Market Environment model (GME) for estimating the early fundraising performance of the target project by exploiting the market environment. In addition, we discriminatively model the market competition and market evolution by designing two graph-based neural network architectures and incorporating them into the joint optimization stage. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on the real-world crowdfunding data collected from Indiegogo.com. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model for modeling and estimating the early fundraising performance of the target project.

Deep neural networks and the ENO procedure are both efficient frameworks for approximating rough functions. We prove that at any order, the ENO interpolation procedure can be cast as a deep ReLU neural network. This surprising fact enables the transfer of several desirable properties of the ENO procedure to deep neural networks, including its high-order accuracy at approximating Lipschitz functions. Numerical tests for the resulting neural networks show excellent performance for approximating solutions of nonlinear conservation laws and at data compression.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) can now automate the algorithm selection, feature engineering, and hyperparameter tuning steps in a machine learning workflow. Commonly known as AutoML or AutoAI, these technologies aim to relieve data scientists from the tedious manual work. However, today's AutoAI systems often present only limited to no information about the process of how they select and generate model results. Thus, users often do not understand the process, neither they trust the outputs. In this short paper, we build an experimental system AutoAIViz that aims to visualize AutoAI's model generation process to increase users' level of understanding and trust in AutoAI systems. Through a user study with 10 professional data scientists, we find that the proposed system helps participants to complete the data science tasks, and increases their perceptions of understanding and trust in the AutoAI system.

Gaussian Process Regression is a well-known and widely used approach to a problem of non-parametric regression. In the current study we obtain a minimax-optimal rate of convergence of its predictive mean to the true underlying function. We provide results for both random and deterministic designs.

Various neural network based methods are capable of anticipating human body motions from data for a short period of time. What these methods lack are the interpretability and explainability of the network and its results. We propose to use Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays to represent and anticipate human body motions. Exploring the influence of the number of delays on the reconstruction and prediction of various motion classes, we show that the anticipation errors in our results are comparable or even better for very short anticipation times ($<0.4$ sec) to a recurrent neural network based method. We perceive our method as a first step towards the interpretability of the results by representing human body motions as linear combinations of ``factors''. In addition, compared to the neural network based methods large training times are not needed. Actually, our methods do not even regress to any other motions than the one to be anticipated and hence is of a generic nature.

On April 13th, 2019, OpenAI Five became the first AI system to defeat the world champions at an esports game. The game of Dota 2 presents novel challenges for AI systems such as long time horizons, imperfect information, and complex, continuous state-action spaces, all challenges which will become increasingly central to more capable AI systems. OpenAI Five leveraged existing reinforcement learning techniques, scaled to learn from batches of approximately 2 million frames every 2 seconds. We developed a distributed training system and tools for continual training which allowed us to train OpenAI Five for 10 months. By defeating the Dota 2 world champion (Team OG), OpenAI Five demonstrates that self-play reinforcement learning can achieve superhuman performance on a difficult task.

The complexity of human cancer often results in significant heterogeneity in response to treatment. Precision medicine offers potential to improve patient outcomes by leveraging this heterogeneity. Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) formalize precision medicine as maps from the patient covariate space into the space of allowable treatments. The optimal ITR is that which maximizes the mean of a clinical outcome in a population of interest. Patient-derived xenograft (PDX) studies permit the evaluation of multiple treatments within a single tumor and thus are ideally suited for estimating optimal ITRs. PDX data are characterized by correlated outcomes, a high-dimensional feature space, and a large number of treatments. Existing methods for estimating optimal ITRs do not take advantage of the unique structure of PDX data or handle the associated challenges well. In this paper, we explore machine learning methods for estimating optimal ITRs from PDX data. We analyze data from a large PDX study to identify biomarkers that are informative for developing personalized treatment recommendations in multiple cancers. We estimate optimal ITRs using regression-based approaches such as Q-learning and direct search methods such as outcome weighted learning. Finally, we implement a superlearner approach to combine a set of estimated ITRs and show that the resulting ITR performs better than any of the input ITRs, mitigating uncertainty regarding user choice of any particular ITR estimation methodology. Our results indicate that PDX data are a valuable resource for developing individualized treatment strategies in oncology.

We study the problem of estimating the expected reward of the optimal policy in the stochastic disjoint linear bandit setting. We prove that for certain settings it is possible to obtain an accurate estimate of the optimal policy value even with a number of samples that is sublinear in the number that would be required to \emph{find} a policy that realizes a value close to this optima. We establish nearly matching information theoretic lower bounds, showing that our algorithm achieves near optimal estimation error. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on joke recommendation and cancer inhibition dosage selection problems using real datasets.

Deep convolutional neural networks can be highly vulnerable to small perturbations of their inputs, potentially a major issue or limitation on system robustness when using deep networks as classifiers. In this paper we propose a low-cost method to explore marginal sample data near trained classifier decision boundaries, thus identifying potential adversarial samples. By finding such adversarial samples it is possible to reduce the search space of adversarial attack algorithms while keeping a reasonable successful perturbation rate. In our developed strategy, the potential adversarial samples represent only 61% of the test data, but in fact cover more than 82% of the adversarial samples produced by iFGSM and 92% of the adversarial samples successfully perturbed by DeepFool on CIFAR10.