In todays global economy, accuracy in predicting macro-economic parameters such as the foreign the exchange rate or at least estimating the trend correctly is of key importance for any future investment. In recent times, the use of computational intelligence-based techniques for forecasting macroeconomic variables has been proven highly successful. This paper tries to come up with a multivariate time series approach to forecast the exchange rate (USD/INR) while parallelly comparing the performance of three multivariate prediction modelling techniques: Vector Auto Regression (a Traditional Econometric Technique), Support Vector Machine (a Contemporary Machine Learning Technique), and Recurrent Neural Networks (a Contemporary Deep Learning Technique). We have used monthly historical data for several macroeconomic variables from April 1994 to December 2018 for USA and India to predict USD-INR Foreign Exchange Rate. The results clearly depict that contemporary techniques of SVM and RNN (Long Short-Term Memory) outperform the widely used traditional method of Auto Regression. The RNN model with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) provides the maximum accuracy (97.83%) followed by SVM Model (97.17%) and VAR Model (96.31%). At last, we present a brief analysis of the correlation and interdependencies of the variables used for forecasting.

Video summarisation can be posed as the task of extracting important parts of a video in order to create an informative summary of what occurred in the video. In this paper we introduce SummaryNet as a supervised learning framework for automated video summarisation. SummaryNet employs a two-stream convolutional network to learn spatial (appearance) and temporal (motion) representations. It utilizes an encoder-decoder model to extract the most salient features from the learned video representations. Lastly, it uses a sigmoid regression network with bidirectional long short-term memory cells to predict the probability of a frame being a summary frame. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that the proposed method achieves comparable or significantly better results than the state-of-the-art video summarisation methods.

Many neural speech enhancement and source separation systems operate in the time-frequency domain. Such models often benefit from making their Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) front-ends trainable. In current literature, these are implemented as large Discrete Fourier Transform matrices; which are prohibitively inefficient for low-compute systems. We present an efficient, trainable front-end based on the butterfly mechanism to compute the Fast Fourier Transform, and show its accuracy and efficiency benefits for low-compute neural speech enhancement models. We also explore the effects of making the STFT window trainable.

Overparameterized neural networks display state-of-the art performance. However, there is a growing need for smaller, energy-efficient, neural networks to be able to use machine learning applications on devices with limited computational resources. A popular approach consists of using pruning techniques. While these techniques have traditionally focused on pruning pre-trained neural networks (e.g. LeCun et al. (1990) and Hassabi et al. (1993)), recent work by Lee et al. (2018) showed promising results where pruning is performed at initialization. However, such procedures remain unsatisfactory as the resulting pruned networks can be difficult to train and, for instance, these procedures do not prevent one layer being fully pruned. In this paper we provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of pruning at initialization and training sparse architectures. This analysis allows us to propose novel principled approaches which we validate experimentally on a variety of network architectures. We particularly show that we can prune up to 99.9% of the weights while keeping the model trainable.

The stringent requirements of mobile edge computing (MEC) applications and functions fathom the high capacity and dense deployment of MEC hosts to the upcoming wireless networks. However, operating such high capacity MEC hosts can significantly increase energy consumption. Thus, a BS unit can act as a self-powered BS. In this paper, an effective energy dispatch mechanism for self-powered wireless networks with edge computing capabilities is studied. First, a two-stage linear stochastic programming problem is formulated with the goal of minimizing the total energy consumption cost of the system while fulfilling the energy demand. Second, a semi-distributed data-driven solution is proposed by developing a novel multi-agent meta-reinforcement learning (MAMRL) framework to solve the formulated problem. In particular, each BS plays the role of a local agent that explores a Markovian behavior for both energy consumption and generation while each BS transfers time-varying features to a meta-agent. Sequentially, the meta-agent optimizes (i.e., exploits) the energy dispatch decision by accepting only the observations from each local agent with its own state information. Meanwhile, each BS agent estimates its own energy dispatch policy by applying the learned parameters from meta-agent. Finally, the proposed MAMRL framework is benchmarked by analyzing deterministic, asymmetric, and stochastic environments in terms of non-renewable energy usages, energy cost, and accuracy. Experimental results show that the proposed MAMRL model can reduce up to 11% non-renewable energy usage and by 22.4% the energy cost (with 95.8% prediction accuracy), compared to other baseline methods.

Simplex-valued data appear throughout statistics and machine learning, for example in the context of transfer learning and compression of deep networks. Existing models for this class of data rely on the Dirichlet distribution or other related loss functions; here we show these standard choices suffer systematically from a number of limitations, including bias and numerical issues that frustrate the use of flexible network models upstream of these distributions. We resolve these limitations by introducing a novel exponential family of distributions for modeling simplex-valued data - the continuous categorical, which arises as a nontrivial multivariate generalization of the recently discovered continuous Bernoulli. Unlike the Dirichlet and other typical choices, the continuous categorical results in a well-behaved probabilistic loss function that produces unbiased estimators, while preserving the mathematical simplicity of the Dirichlet. As well as exploring its theoretical properties, we introduce sampling methods for this distribution that are amenable to the reparameterization trick, and evaluate their performance. Lastly, we demonstrate that the continuous categorical outperforms standard choices empirically, across a simulation study, an applied example on multi-party elections, and a neural network compression task.

Clustering, a fundamental activity in unsupervised learning, is notoriously difficult when the feature space is high-dimensional. Fortunately, in many realistic scenarios, only a handful of features are relevant in distinguishing clusters. This has motivated the development of sparse clustering techniques that typically rely on k-means within outer algorithms of high computational complexity. Current techniques also require careful tuning of shrinkage parameters, further limiting their scalability. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for sparse k-means clustering that is intuitive, simple to implement, and competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms. We show that our algorithm enjoys consistency and convergence guarantees. Our core method readily generalizes to several task-specific algorithms such as clustering on subsets of attributes and in partially observed data settings. We showcase these contributions via simulated experiments and benchmark datasets, as well as a case study on mouse protein expression.

We consider the problem of learning stabilizable systems governed by nonlinear state equation $h_{t+1}=\phi(h_t,u_t;\theta)+w_t$. Here $\theta$ is the unknown system dynamics, $h_t $ is the state, $u_t$ is the input and $w_t$ is the additive noise vector. We study gradient based algorithms to learn the system dynamics $\theta$ from samples obtained from a single finite trajectory. If the system is run by a stabilizing input policy, we show that temporally-dependent samples can be approximated by i.i.d. samples via a truncation argument by using mixing-time arguments. We then develop new guarantees for the uniform convergence of the gradients of empirical loss. Unlike existing work, our bounds are noise sensitive which allows for learning ground-truth dynamics with high accuracy and small sample complexity. Together, our results facilitate efficient learning of the general nonlinear system under stabilizing policy. We specialize our guarantees to entry-wise nonlinear activations and verify our theory in various numerical experiments

This paper revisits the celebrated temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm for the policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. Typically, the performance of the plain-vanilla TD algorithm is sensitive to the choice of stepsizes. Oftentimes, TD suffers from slow convergence. Motivated by the tight connection between the TD learning algorithm and the stochastic gradient methods, we develop the first adaptive variant of the TD learning algorithm with linear function approximation that we term AdaTD. In contrast to the original TD, AdaTD is robust or less sensitive to the choice of stepsizes. Analytically, we establish that to reach an $\epsilon$ accuracy, the number of iterations needed is $\tilde{O}(\epsilon^2\ln^4\frac{1}{\epsilon}/\ln^4\frac{1}{\rho})$, where $\rho$ represents the speed of the underlying Markov chain converges to the stationary distribution. This implies that the iteration complexity of AdaTD is no worse than that of TD in the worst case. Going beyond TD, we further develop an adaptive variant of TD($\lambda$), which is referred to as AdaTD($\lambda$). We evaluate the empirical performance of AdaTD and AdaTD($\lambda$) on several standard reinforcement learning tasks in OpenAI Gym on both linear and nonlinear function approximation, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our new approaches over existing ones.

We study distributed optimization algorithms for minimizing the average of \emph{heterogeneous} functions distributed across several machines with a focus on communication efficiency. In such settings, naively using the classical stochastic gradient descent (SGD) or its variants (e.g., SVRG) with a uniform sampling of machines typically yields poor performance. It often leads to the dependence of convergence rate on maximum Lipschitz constant of gradients across the devices. In this paper, we propose a novel \emph{adaptive} sampling of machines specially catered to these settings. Our method relies on an adaptive estimate of local Lipschitz constants base on the information of past gradients. We show that the new way improves the dependence of convergence rate from maximum Lipschitz constant to \emph{average} Lipschitz constant across machines, thereby, significantly accelerating the convergence. Our experiments demonstrate that our method indeed speeds up the convergence of the standard SVRG algorithm in heterogeneous environments.